BH-加密皇
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【金标会】币安第一公会共建者!Gold Standard Club, the Founding Co-builder of Binance's Top Guild！|加密一二级行情分析，资讯分享，web3布道.币安交易手续费8折邀请码：BH8888
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【Boldly predicting the bottom of this bear market, the standard trend of five-wave decline】
Partners, Bitcoin is currently priced around 72400. We have mentioned several times that Bitcoin is undergoing a five-wave structure in a bear market. It is now clearer that we are in the fourth wave rebound structure. In Chart 1 at the daily level: we can see that Bitcoin broke below the long-term upward trend line, announcing the end of the bull market and entering a bear market. After the first wave collapsed, a rebound and consolidation formed a second wave continuation structure. After more than 50 days and a rebound of over 17000 points, it entered the third wave, which plummeted by over 38000 points. Currently, we are in the fourth wave rebound structure. Referring to the second wave movement, the more than 50 days and over 17000 points rebound just reaches the upper yellow downward trend line. After the completion of the fourth wave, the fifth wave's collapse is likely to follow the equal distance decline of the second wave, directly reaching around 38000-40000.
Looking at Chart 2: the current situation at the 4-hour level shows a continuation structure within the yellow range, which is currently in the fourth wave rebound continuation and upward consolidation phase. Last night it touched around 74000, just hitting the upper boundary of the range (which we reminded about yesterday) and was resisted at the Fibonacci 0.382 position, falling back. The next movement will be a range-bound upward to near the yellow trend line before a sharp decline.
Therefore, in summary, the contract suggestion is to short near the upper boundary of the range and long near the lower boundary, with a stop-loss strategy for breakouts. In terms of spot trading, we are waiting for opportunities. There may be another black swan event in the first half of the year, and Bitcoin reaching around 40000 presents a significant opportunity.
(In the evening, we may conduct a review summary article on the analysis approach we have accurately grasped since the beginning of the bear market. Please pay attention and click the avatar to enter the chat room for daily reminders)
#BTC
#BTC走势分析
$BTC
Partners, Bitcoin is currently priced around 72400. We have mentioned several times that Bitcoin is undergoing a five-wave structure in a bear market. It is now clearer that we are in the fourth wave rebound structure. In Chart 1 at the daily level: we can see that Bitcoin broke below the long-term upward trend line, announcing the end of the bull market and entering a bear market. After the first wave collapsed, a rebound and consolidation formed a second wave continuation structure. After more than 50 days and a rebound of over 17000 points, it entered the third wave, which plummeted by over 38000 points. Currently, we are in the fourth wave rebound structure. Referring to the second wave movement, the more than 50 days and over 17000 points rebound just reaches the upper yellow downward trend line. After the completion of the fourth wave, the fifth wave's collapse is likely to follow the equal distance decline of the second wave, directly reaching around 38000-40000.
Looking at Chart 2: the current situation at the 4-hour level shows a continuation structure within the yellow range, which is currently in the fourth wave rebound continuation and upward consolidation phase. Last night it touched around 74000, just hitting the upper boundary of the range (which we reminded about yesterday) and was resisted at the Fibonacci 0.382 position, falling back. The next movement will be a range-bound upward to near the yellow trend line before a sharp decline.
Therefore, in summary, the contract suggestion is to short near the upper boundary of the range and long near the lower boundary, with a stop-loss strategy for breakouts. In terms of spot trading, we are waiting for opportunities. There may be another black swan event in the first half of the year, and Bitcoin reaching around 40000 presents a significant opportunity.
(In the evening, we may conduct a review summary article on the analysis approach we have accurately grasped since the beginning of the bear market. Please pay attention and click the avatar to enter the chat room for daily reminders)
#BTC
#BTC走势分析
$BTC
PINNED
【The Fed is about to change leadership, can the 'crash' curse be broken?】
The Fed will change its chairman tomorrow. Looking at history, as shown in Chart 2: every previous leadership change has led to significant crashes. This afternoon, I've already posted about several technical indicators suggesting a high probability of a drop. With the addition of this leadership change curse, can the market hold its ground?
Current chairman Powell's term ends:
Chairman's term: Expires on May 15, 2026.
New chairman nomination and confirmation:
Trump nominated Kevin Warsh for the next Fed chairman on January 30, 2026.
After processes like the Senate Banking Committee, on May 13, 2026 (local time), the Senate officially votes to confirm Warsh as Fed chairman.
Official handover/inauguration:
Warsh will take the oath of office on May 15, 2026, officially succeeding Powell.
After Powell steps down as chairman, he will continue to serve as a Fed governor until January 2028.
The Fed will change its chairman tomorrow. Looking at history, as shown in Chart 2: every previous leadership change has led to significant crashes. This afternoon, I've already posted about several technical indicators suggesting a high probability of a drop. With the addition of this leadership change curse, can the market hold its ground?
Current chairman Powell's term ends:
Chairman's term: Expires on May 15, 2026.
New chairman nomination and confirmation:
Trump nominated Kevin Warsh for the next Fed chairman on January 30, 2026.
After processes like the Senate Banking Committee, on May 13, 2026 (local time), the Senate officially votes to confirm Warsh as Fed chairman.
Official handover/inauguration:
Warsh will take the oath of office on May 15, 2026, officially succeeding Powell.
After Powell steps down as chairman, he will continue to serve as a Fed governor until January 2028.
[Indicators stacking up: Is the big move coming? Is the fifth wave crash imminent?]
The recent uptrend line was broken yesterday + M-shaped double top pattern + Ma200 moving average resistance ➡️ Is the fifth wave of the bear market approaching?
Chart 1: As you can see, yesterday we broke down significantly below the 40-day uptrend line, support has turned into resistance, and we are currently in a pullback phase, with this line now acting as a pressure line.
Chart 2: The M-shaped double top pattern has formed, and this pattern typically requires a correction.
Chart 3: Ma200 moving average resistance—historically, the first contact in a bear market rarely breaks through in one go.
Chart 4: The five-wave decline in the bear market has always been viewed with conviction; the overhead supply remains dense, and current market liquidity is still insufficient to break through the bull retreat.
In summary, we focus mainly on technical patterns; currently, we are watching if we can effectively hold above 81000, while below, we pay attention to the critical boundary around charts 1 and 2, which can also be seen as the last defense line. If we effectively break below yesterday's low of 78700, a rapid downturn could be on the horizon.
#btc #BTC走势分析 #CPI
The recent uptrend line was broken yesterday + M-shaped double top pattern + Ma200 moving average resistance ➡️ Is the fifth wave of the bear market approaching?
Chart 1: As you can see, yesterday we broke down significantly below the 40-day uptrend line, support has turned into resistance, and we are currently in a pullback phase, with this line now acting as a pressure line.
Chart 2: The M-shaped double top pattern has formed, and this pattern typically requires a correction.
Chart 3: Ma200 moving average resistance—historically, the first contact in a bear market rarely breaks through in one go.
Chart 4: The five-wave decline in the bear market has always been viewed with conviction; the overhead supply remains dense, and current market liquidity is still insufficient to break through the bull retreat.
In summary, we focus mainly on technical patterns; currently, we are watching if we can effectively hold above 81000, while below, we pay attention to the critical boundary around charts 1 and 2, which can also be seen as the last defense line. If we effectively break below yesterday's low of 78700, a rapid downturn could be on the horizon.
#btc #BTC走势分析 #CPI
#CPI数据
Keep an eye on the US CPI data dropping tonight at 8:30 PM. Volatility is about to kick in, so manage your positions and dial down the leverage.
Due to skyrocketing oil and gas prices from the war, the CPI index is also on the rise, extending the timeline for interest rate cuts.
1. Timing and Market Expectations (Beijing Time, tonight 20:30)
- US April CPI (YoY): Expected 3.7%–3.8%, Previous 3.3%
- Core CPI (YoY): Expected 2.7%, Previous 2.6%
- MoM CPI: Expected 0.6%–0.7%, Previous 0.9%
2. Oil's Impact on CPI: Strong Short-Term Transmission (Core Tonight)
Energy's weight in the US CPI is approximately 7% (Gasoline + Fuel 3%–5%, Energy Services 4%).
1) Direct Impact (Fastest)
- Oil prices up → Gasoline/Fuel prices up → Directly drives CPI energy component.
- Experience: For every 10% increase in oil prices → CPI YoY +0.1%–0.3%; transmission takes 1–2 months.
- April Context: Middle Eastern conflicts pushing oil prices up (WTI from $65 to $85/barrel), directly raising April CPI YoY by about 0.4%–0.6%.
2) Indirect Impact (Full Supply Chain)
- Transportation: Diesel/Aviation fuel prices up → Logistics, airfare, delivery costs rise → Passes on to food and consumer goods.
- Chemicals: Price hikes in plastics, fertilizers, packaging materials → Higher costs for food and daily essentials.
- Services: Rising commuting costs → Stronger wage demands → Core service inflation becomes stickier (the hardest part to bring down).
In a nutshell: Oil prices act as a short-term "amplifier" for CPI, and the main reason April CPI may exceed expectations is oil.
#石油 #cpi #BTC
$BTC
$CL
Keep an eye on the US CPI data dropping tonight at 8:30 PM. Volatility is about to kick in, so manage your positions and dial down the leverage.
Due to skyrocketing oil and gas prices from the war, the CPI index is also on the rise, extending the timeline for interest rate cuts.
1. Timing and Market Expectations (Beijing Time, tonight 20:30)
- US April CPI (YoY): Expected 3.7%–3.8%, Previous 3.3%
- Core CPI (YoY): Expected 2.7%, Previous 2.6%
- MoM CPI: Expected 0.6%–0.7%, Previous 0.9%
2. Oil's Impact on CPI: Strong Short-Term Transmission (Core Tonight)
Energy's weight in the US CPI is approximately 7% (Gasoline + Fuel 3%–5%, Energy Services 4%).
1) Direct Impact (Fastest)
- Oil prices up → Gasoline/Fuel prices up → Directly drives CPI energy component.
- Experience: For every 10% increase in oil prices → CPI YoY +0.1%–0.3%; transmission takes 1–2 months.
- April Context: Middle Eastern conflicts pushing oil prices up (WTI from $65 to $85/barrel), directly raising April CPI YoY by about 0.4%–0.6%.
2) Indirect Impact (Full Supply Chain)
- Transportation: Diesel/Aviation fuel prices up → Logistics, airfare, delivery costs rise → Passes on to food and consumer goods.
- Chemicals: Price hikes in plastics, fertilizers, packaging materials → Higher costs for food and daily essentials.
- Services: Rising commuting costs → Stronger wage demands → Core service inflation becomes stickier (the hardest part to bring down).
In a nutshell: Oil prices act as a short-term "amplifier" for CPI, and the main reason April CPI may exceed expectations is oil.
#石油 #cpi #BTC
$BTC
$CL
#BTC
Bitcoin is currently trading at 80800+, and it's oscillating between the Fibonacci retracement levels of 0.382-0.5 in this pullback phase from the recent high of 82800+ to the low of 79100+. Yesterday, we mentioned that the previous low support at 80600+ was a bit of a misstep, as we overlooked the convergence at the 0.5 level. Right now, we're approaching strong resistance at 81000, with the upper 0.618 pressure at 81400+. I still believe this rebound is not a reversal signal but rather a technical bounce after an oversold condition, especially since we've dropped nearly 4000 points. The current rebound lacks volume, and the movement is slow and not particularly strong.
Above 81000, there's also a dense area of trapped positions. My view is that if we can break through the Fibonacci 0.5 and 0.618 levels, specifically the key resistances at 81000 and 81500, and if those trapped positions are cleared, it would indicate that the whales are still quite confident. Only then might the bearish outlook change; otherwise, this small rebound seems more like a trap to build confidence among the bulls, especially as more and more bulls are entering the market, particularly driven by the altcoin bounce.
In terms of trading strategy, I still believe that approaching 81000 is a good point to go short, with a stop-loss set at 81800 and taking profits around 76000. For spot trading, it's best to wait, while altcoins should be actively taken profit from.
#BTC走势分析 #US April ADP employment exceeded expectations
Bitcoin is currently trading at 80800+, and it's oscillating between the Fibonacci retracement levels of 0.382-0.5 in this pullback phase from the recent high of 82800+ to the low of 79100+. Yesterday, we mentioned that the previous low support at 80600+ was a bit of a misstep, as we overlooked the convergence at the 0.5 level. Right now, we're approaching strong resistance at 81000, with the upper 0.618 pressure at 81400+. I still believe this rebound is not a reversal signal but rather a technical bounce after an oversold condition, especially since we've dropped nearly 4000 points. The current rebound lacks volume, and the movement is slow and not particularly strong.
Above 81000, there's also a dense area of trapped positions. My view is that if we can break through the Fibonacci 0.5 and 0.618 levels, specifically the key resistances at 81000 and 81500, and if those trapped positions are cleared, it would indicate that the whales are still quite confident. Only then might the bearish outlook change; otherwise, this small rebound seems more like a trap to build confidence among the bulls, especially as more and more bulls are entering the market, particularly driven by the altcoin bounce.
In terms of trading strategy, I still believe that approaching 81000 is a good point to go short, with a stop-loss set at 81800 and taking profits around 76000. For spot trading, it's best to wait, while altcoins should be actively taken profit from.
#BTC走势分析 #US April ADP employment exceeded expectations
#BTC
Bitcoin is hovering around the market price of 80300. It's been consolidating near the 80600 resistance over the past couple of days. Currently, I’m keeping an eye on the 80600+ resistance level, which is essentially the previous low point and can be seen as a critical boundary moving forward. Considering the current hourly stochastic indicator is in the overbought zone and turning downwards, along with the MACD and RSI showing a death cross, I believe this level is likely to be a tough nut to crack in the short term. I anticipate that the bearish flag structure will continue to play out, with the overall direction pointing downwards. The fifth wave drop needs to complete before we can talk about a normal bear market bottom logic; feel free to check out the related analysis from the day before yesterday.
Therefore, the strategy should primarily focus on shorting, and we should be cautious about chasing long positions. Near the 80600 level, we can initiate short positions. Yesterday, we also mentioned a short trade in the 80000-80500 range that yielded profits of about 800-900 points. Over the weekend, the market hasn’t been very volatile, with Bitcoin moving sideways, and while we can catch some altcoin movements, we need to be careful with altcoins starting next week!
#BTC走势分析 #AltcoinHotspots
Bitcoin is hovering around the market price of 80300. It's been consolidating near the 80600 resistance over the past couple of days. Currently, I’m keeping an eye on the 80600+ resistance level, which is essentially the previous low point and can be seen as a critical boundary moving forward. Considering the current hourly stochastic indicator is in the overbought zone and turning downwards, along with the MACD and RSI showing a death cross, I believe this level is likely to be a tough nut to crack in the short term. I anticipate that the bearish flag structure will continue to play out, with the overall direction pointing downwards. The fifth wave drop needs to complete before we can talk about a normal bear market bottom logic; feel free to check out the related analysis from the day before yesterday.
Therefore, the strategy should primarily focus on shorting, and we should be cautious about chasing long positions. Near the 80600 level, we can initiate short positions. Yesterday, we also mentioned a short trade in the 80000-80500 range that yielded profits of about 800-900 points. Over the weekend, the market hasn’t been very volatile, with Bitcoin moving sideways, and while we can catch some altcoin movements, we need to be careful with altcoins starting next week!
#BTC走势分析 #AltcoinHotspots
#BTC
The current Bitcoin price action is pretty much in line with yesterday's analysis. After breaking below the lower boundary of the minor uptrend channel, the support around 79500 held strong without a solid breakdown. We've seen a couple of dips below that level, but the price has bounced back. The 1-hour MACD is showing a bullish crossover at the bottom, and the 4-hour RSI is in the oversold zone, indicating potential consolidation. So, in the short term, there might be a small bounce back. If we see a rebound near 80000-80500, I think it’s a good spot to go short.
#BTC走势分析
The current Bitcoin price action is pretty much in line with yesterday's analysis. After breaking below the lower boundary of the minor uptrend channel, the support around 79500 held strong without a solid breakdown. We've seen a couple of dips below that level, but the price has bounced back. The 1-hour MACD is showing a bullish crossover at the bottom, and the 4-hour RSI is in the oversold zone, indicating potential consolidation. So, in the short term, there might be a small bounce back. If we see a rebound near 80000-80500, I think it’s a good spot to go short.
#BTC走势分析
BH-加密皇
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--
Bearish#BTC
Bitcoin is accelerating its drop and currently testing the lower boundary of a small ascending channel. It looks like there are signs of a breakdown; if it doesn't quickly recover, we might see a short-term drop following the trend line shown in the chart. Immediate support is around 79500.
#BTC走势分析 #ETH
Bitcoin is accelerating its drop and currently testing the lower boundary of a small ascending channel. It looks like there are signs of a breakdown; if it doesn't quickly recover, we might see a short-term drop following the trend line shown in the chart. Immediate support is around 79500.
#BTC走势分析 #ETH
#BTC
Bitcoin is accelerating its drop and currently testing the lower boundary of a small ascending channel. It looks like there are signs of a breakdown; if it doesn't quickly recover, we might see a short-term drop following the trend line shown in the chart. Immediate support is around 79500.
#BTC走势分析 #ETH
Bitcoin is accelerating its drop and currently testing the lower boundary of a small ascending channel. It looks like there are signs of a breakdown; if it doesn't quickly recover, we might see a short-term drop following the trend line shown in the chart. Immediate support is around 79500.
#BTC走势分析 #ETH
[Is the Bitcoin bear market fourth wave rebound hitting a top? Is the bull return a false illusion creating a trap for the longs?]
Bitcoin is trading at 81000+.
First, let's check out Chart 1: Yesterday, Bitcoin surged to 82800+, breaking through the multiple resistance levels we previously discussed, especially the upper bound of the bearish flag pattern. You gotta hand it to the big players; that was a flawless accumulation move, given that the short ratio in the 79000-80000 range was too high, and the funding rates had been elevated for too long. Ultimately, this surge forced a short squeeze, pushing out a lot of bears who then flipped to bullish, thinking the bull market was back. But looking above, we see a dense area of trapped positions, so 82800+ might very well be the peak of this rebound. It's a potential false breakout designed to create the illusion of a bull return while denying the trapped positions any chance to exit. Yesterday, I speculated that the trading strategy was indeed clever; the current pullback to around 81000 has trapped quite a few bulls.
Chart 2: The weekly chart has been on a six-week uptrend. From my observations, this hasn't occurred in previous bear market rebounds. The price is currently facing resistance from the MA30 and 120-day moving averages, about to form a death cross. Additionally, the volume during these six weeks of rebound has been insufficient, with low-volume increases that are slow and lack strength. A true big movement should come with increased volume, so it feels like the market is being force-fed life; we're reaching extreme limits, in my opinion.
Finally, looking at Chart 3: In previous bear markets, there were at least five waves of decline followed by consolidation to gather enough chips before turning bullish again. I've analyzed the MA and EMA system trends for turning bullish and have consistently maintained the five-wave bearish decline pattern, which you can check back on. So, given the current trend, I believe we are at the peak of the fourth wave rebound consolidation because the bottom range of 60000-82800 has already rebounded over 40%. Normally, the prelude to a bull return requires a second dip to the bottom, allowing the big players to gather sufficient chips before a violent surge.
So, to summarize the analysis, I believe the likelihood of hitting a top this time is quite high. It's not advisable to chase longs, and the risk-reward ratio is low. Our short strategy this round has proven to be quite wise, as we executed a low-leverage, phased accumulation strategy. Personally, I've built positions three times, currently realizing some unrealized gains, and I was almost triggered to stop-loss at 83100, not to mention with high leverage.
Trading sometimes requires you to step back and observe; when others are fearful, be greedy; when others are greedy, be fearful. Don't let the emotions of others sway you.
#BTC
Bitcoin is trading at 81000+.
First, let's check out Chart 1: Yesterday, Bitcoin surged to 82800+, breaking through the multiple resistance levels we previously discussed, especially the upper bound of the bearish flag pattern. You gotta hand it to the big players; that was a flawless accumulation move, given that the short ratio in the 79000-80000 range was too high, and the funding rates had been elevated for too long. Ultimately, this surge forced a short squeeze, pushing out a lot of bears who then flipped to bullish, thinking the bull market was back. But looking above, we see a dense area of trapped positions, so 82800+ might very well be the peak of this rebound. It's a potential false breakout designed to create the illusion of a bull return while denying the trapped positions any chance to exit. Yesterday, I speculated that the trading strategy was indeed clever; the current pullback to around 81000 has trapped quite a few bulls.
Chart 2: The weekly chart has been on a six-week uptrend. From my observations, this hasn't occurred in previous bear market rebounds. The price is currently facing resistance from the MA30 and 120-day moving averages, about to form a death cross. Additionally, the volume during these six weeks of rebound has been insufficient, with low-volume increases that are slow and lack strength. A true big movement should come with increased volume, so it feels like the market is being force-fed life; we're reaching extreme limits, in my opinion.
Finally, looking at Chart 3: In previous bear markets, there were at least five waves of decline followed by consolidation to gather enough chips before turning bullish again. I've analyzed the MA and EMA system trends for turning bullish and have consistently maintained the five-wave bearish decline pattern, which you can check back on. So, given the current trend, I believe we are at the peak of the fourth wave rebound consolidation because the bottom range of 60000-82800 has already rebounded over 40%. Normally, the prelude to a bull return requires a second dip to the bottom, allowing the big players to gather sufficient chips before a violent surge.
So, to summarize the analysis, I believe the likelihood of hitting a top this time is quite high. It's not advisable to chase longs, and the risk-reward ratio is low. Our short strategy this round has proven to be quite wise, as we executed a low-leverage, phased accumulation strategy. Personally, I've built positions three times, currently realizing some unrealized gains, and I was almost triggered to stop-loss at 83100, not to mention with high leverage.
Trading sometimes requires you to step back and observe; when others are fearful, be greedy; when others are greedy, be fearful. Don't let the emotions of others sway you.
#BTC
#btc
Bros, it looks like 82850 might be the top, right? Our stop loss at 83100 was almost hit, pretty risky, but luckily this low-leverage scaling strategy was smart, leaving enough room to reload.
This negative funding rate finally leveled out, and a lot of shorts got taken down; now it's balanced, and most shorts are either too scared to add to their positions or can't really do it. Bulls are hyped, riding the wave back, but could this be a trap for a fake breakout? I doubt the MA weekly resistance at 120 will be broken all at once!
#BTC走势分析 #ETH
Bros, it looks like 82850 might be the top, right? Our stop loss at 83100 was almost hit, pretty risky, but luckily this low-leverage scaling strategy was smart, leaving enough room to reload.
This negative funding rate finally leveled out, and a lot of shorts got taken down; now it's balanced, and most shorts are either too scared to add to their positions or can't really do it. Bulls are hyped, riding the wave back, but could this be a trap for a fake breakout? I doubt the MA weekly resistance at 120 will be broken all at once!
#BTC走势分析 #ETH
【MicroStrategy went on a buying spree in April, scooping up nearly $3 billion in Bitcoin】
Wow! MicroStrategy went all-in in April, buying close to $3 billion in Bitcoin, no wonder the price has been so strong lately!
Total Holdings: 818,334 BTC
Total Cost: Approximately $6.181 billion
Average Cost: $75,537 / BTC
May 1–4: No buys (pause confirmed)
May 5: Q1 earnings report release
Starting the 2nd week of May: Expected to resume regular accumulation
How much more capital do they have to keep propping up the price? Is MicroStrategy a hidden black swan?
#BTC Bitcoin breaks above $80K #微策略募资支持比特币战略
Wow! MicroStrategy went all-in in April, buying close to $3 billion in Bitcoin, no wonder the price has been so strong lately!
Total Holdings: 818,334 BTC
Total Cost: Approximately $6.181 billion
Average Cost: $75,537 / BTC
May 1–4: No buys (pause confirmed)
May 5: Q1 earnings report release
Starting the 2nd week of May: Expected to resume regular accumulation
How much more capital do they have to keep propping up the price? Is MicroStrategy a hidden black swan?
#BTC Bitcoin breaks above $80K #微策略募资支持比特币战略
【Bitcoin is facing multiple resistance levels, can it break through?】
The big coin is hovering around $80,200, finally reaching the range we've been discussing, $80,000-$81,000. It's hitting multiple strong resistance zones ahead: the neckline of previous lows + the upper boundary of a bear flag structure + the trendline of the ascending channel + the 180-day MA/EMA multiple pressure points. Can it break through the resistance?
We're sticking to our previous strategy; let's wait for a solid breakout before changing our approach.
Bitcoin breakout $80K#BTC走势分析
$BTC
The big coin is hovering around $80,200, finally reaching the range we've been discussing, $80,000-$81,000. It's hitting multiple strong resistance zones ahead: the neckline of previous lows + the upper boundary of a bear flag structure + the trendline of the ascending channel + the 180-day MA/EMA multiple pressure points. Can it break through the resistance?
We're sticking to our previous strategy; let's wait for a solid breakout before changing our approach.
Bitcoin breakout $80K#BTC走势分析
$BTC
【Can Bitcoin Break Through the Bear Flag Structure and Return to a Bull Market?】
Bitcoin is trading at 78300+, and the recent market action has been a back-and-forth grind. The bulls are strong but not overwhelming, and the bears are weak but not nonexistent, making it overall tricky to execute trades. For short-term plays, it's crucial to take profits promptly; otherwise, gains can evaporate quickly.
Looking at the weekly chart (Chart 1): As mentioned earlier, the start of a bear market typically comes with EMA moving averages crossing from short-term to long-term, followed by a period of consolidation at the bottom before golden crosses signal a return to a bull market. The two patterns we've illustrated in the chart reflect this. Currently, the slope of the EMA is still quite steep downward, indicating we are far from the bottom consolidation phase where the whales accumulate enough coins. Moreover, the bear flag structure has yet to break, so chasing highs is still inadvisable.
Chart 2: Bitcoin remains within the bear flag structure, with the upper resistance zone still strong, comprising the previous horizontal neckline, the upper trend line of the bear flag, and the downward trend line of the rising channel, creating a formidable resistance area around 80000–81000, making a breakout challenging. The nearby resistance is around the previous high of 79500; this morning's pump couldn't hold and retraced. We can also see that after breaking below the lower trend line of the rising channel, it has attempted to rally back twice but failed to reclaim it. The support below can be found around the midline of the structure, in the 75000–75600 range.
Therefore, our strategy recommends primarily shorting at high levels. The current price has low risk-reward for chasing highs; we still suggest gradually accumulating short positions in the 79000–81000 range.
#BTC #BTC走势分析 $BTC
Bitcoin is trading at 78300+, and the recent market action has been a back-and-forth grind. The bulls are strong but not overwhelming, and the bears are weak but not nonexistent, making it overall tricky to execute trades. For short-term plays, it's crucial to take profits promptly; otherwise, gains can evaporate quickly.
Looking at the weekly chart (Chart 1): As mentioned earlier, the start of a bear market typically comes with EMA moving averages crossing from short-term to long-term, followed by a period of consolidation at the bottom before golden crosses signal a return to a bull market. The two patterns we've illustrated in the chart reflect this. Currently, the slope of the EMA is still quite steep downward, indicating we are far from the bottom consolidation phase where the whales accumulate enough coins. Moreover, the bear flag structure has yet to break, so chasing highs is still inadvisable.
Chart 2: Bitcoin remains within the bear flag structure, with the upper resistance zone still strong, comprising the previous horizontal neckline, the upper trend line of the bear flag, and the downward trend line of the rising channel, creating a formidable resistance area around 80000–81000, making a breakout challenging. The nearby resistance is around the previous high of 79500; this morning's pump couldn't hold and retraced. We can also see that after breaking below the lower trend line of the rising channel, it has attempted to rally back twice but failed to reclaim it. The support below can be found around the midline of the structure, in the 75000–75600 range.
Therefore, our strategy recommends primarily shorting at high levels. The current price has low risk-reward for chasing highs; we still suggest gradually accumulating short positions in the 79000–81000 range.
#BTC #BTC走势分析 $BTC
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