$RIVER quickly bounced upward, but around 80–86 the movement begins to lose momentum: buyers are no longer "pushing" the price, but rather defending themselves while offers appear from above. This is a typical picture of fatigue after an impulse — the rise has done its job, liquidity is gathered, and now the market is checking whether this was a trend change or just a corrective sweep. Since the structure still favors a decline, the current rise looks like a retracement within a downward context, rather than a reversal.
In such moments, the key logic is simple: a strong downward trend is most often broken not in one leap, but by a series of consolidations above resistances. As long as this is not the case, the zone at the upper boundary of the range becomes a "shelf" for distribution, where sellers gain an advantage. If selling pressure continues to strengthen, the downward movement may accelerate in stages — from the first fixation to deeper targets.
SHORT
• Entry zone: 78.0 – 80.5 — the area where the pullback approaches the resistance zone and provides a point for entry "by structure," not against it.
• TP1: 73.4 — the first target, a return to the nearest support.
• TP2: 66.3 — continuation of the decline while maintaining selling pressure.
• TP3: 59.1 — extension of the downward movement.
• Stop-Loss: 87.6 — holding above this level means that sellers have not held the top of the range, and the idea of a "corrective bounce" stops being relevant.
A weak bounce at the top of the range is not strength, but a signal: the market stops buying aggressively and starts selling on the rise, turning the upward movement into fuel for the next wave down.
What will be the decisive confirmation of the short on $RIVER: a quick rejection from the zone of 80–86 or a downward breakout of the level 73.4 with acceleration?