powell

Today is Tuesday May 13. The next 48 hours contain more macro and policy catalysts than any comparable two-day window of 2026.
Bitcoin opened at $82,164 on Monday, the strongest opening price since January 31. As of Tuesday morning, Bitcoin is holding close to $82,000 but can't seem to move past that value for a consistent period, and Ethereum remains resilient around the $2,300 mark.
Then Trump intervened. President Trump emphatically rejected Iran's latest response to a peace proposal, calling it "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!" in a Truth Social post. Gold fell, oil prices rose, stock contracts held, and treasury yields moved upward — the classic risk-repricing pattern when Middle East tensions spike.
Bitcoin absorbed the news and is holding $81,000–$82,000. After months of being whipsawed by every Iran headline, the market is showing more resilience to geopolitical noise than it did in February. That resilience itself is a signal.
Now for the three scheduled events in the next 48 hours that matter more than any Trump tweet:
Tomorrow, May 14, 10:30AM: CLARITY Act Senate Banking Committee markup. The week starting May 11 is pivotal, headlined by a U.S. Senate Banking Committee hearing on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act on May 14. This is the vote that determines whether the bill advances to a full Senate floor vote — or gets stuck in committee. If it passes, the pre-July 4 signing timeline becomes the base case. If it fails or gets delayed, the bill is likely dead for 2026 given the Memorial Day recess on May 21.
Without regulatory progress, institutions would pull back, corporate treasury buying could slow down, and Bitcoin could break below the $74,000–$76,000 support zone. A drop to $55,000–$75,000 would mean October 2025 was the final top — Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer has made exactly this case. We don't think this is the most likely forecast, but it's real enough to plan for if the May markup on the CLARITY Act falls apart.
Thursday, May 15: Powell's term ends. Warsh takes over. Concurrently, Jerome Powell's term as Fed Chair ends May 15, injecting uncertainty into monetary policy outlooks. Warsh — who holds over $100M in personal crypto and called Bitcoin "the new gold for under-40s" — becomes the Fed's most powerful voice on monetary policy. The market won't get a new FOMC statement Thursday. But Warsh's public comments in his first week will be parsed obsessively for any signal about rate cut timing. Business Insider
Also today: CPI data. The April CPI release comes this morning. Given that oil fell back below $100 last week, core CPI could come in softer than March's 0.2%. A soft CPI print removes one of the last arguments for keeping rates elevated — and directly supports Warsh's potential dovish pivot in H2 2026.
Four simultaneous events: Trump/Iran tension, CPI data, CLARITY markup, Powell exit. Any single one of these would normally dominate a week's market conversation. All four are happening in 48 hours.
Watch Thursday's close. That's when the dust settles.
#Bitcoin #CLARITYAct #Powell #Warsh #iran

🇺🇸🇺🇸
"I don't care whether Jerome Powell stays on the Fed Board or not. I want Kevin Warsh as Chair." — Trump.
Powell is staying as a Governor, breaking 75 years of precedent, after a DOJ probe into the renovation of the Fed's headquarters was dropped. His term as a Governor now runs through January 2028.
On May 15, the Fed will have an awkward dual-leadership structure: a vocal outgoing chair staying on as governor, and a new chair sitting next to him. The first policy meeting after that handover is set for June 16–17.
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📉 THE MARKET ISN'T BELIEVING THE HYPE
Metric Current Signal
CME FedWatch (June hold) 94.1%–96.4% probability
CME FedWatch (June cut) ~3.6%–6%
CME FedWatch (July hold) ~90%
Bank of America Forecast No cuts until 2027
DXY (Dollar Index) ~98
The market isn't pricing a single cut within the next 12 months. That's not "lower liquidity." That's tightening holding firm.
📈 THE ONE THING STOCKS AND CRYPTO AGREE ON
While macro players debate the Fed's timeline, price action in risk assets has been fiercely decisive.
See the tape:
· S&P 500 & Nasdaq → Record highs (S&P +0.84% to 7,398, Nasdaq +1.71% to 26,247 — sixth straight weekly gain)
· Semiconductor stocks (SOX index) +55% in Q2, Nvidia, Micron, and AMD up double digits
· Tech stocks are ignoring the macro because AI earnings are the only story that matters
· BTC → $80,397, +13% over the last month, as Fed-wary investors rotate into assets outside the traditional banking system
Incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has described Bitcoin as "digital gold" for younger generations and called digital assets "part of the fabric of our financial services."
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🧠 THE TRADER'S BOTTOM LINE
The Fed is trapped between Trump's pressure and its own data-dependent inertia. Powell broke tradition to stay on and defend independence. Warsh will take the chair but won't cut rates unless the data forces him. Three regional Fed presidents dissented last meeting specifically to kill any easing bias.
The market stopped waiting for cuts weeks ago. That's why record highs in risk assets are coexisting with dollar strength and stubborn inflation.
The weapon is not lower rates. It is the end of the war. A peace deal in the Strait of Hormuz is worth more for liquidity right now than another basis point of Fed jawboning.
Are you positioned for macro truth or Fed narrative?
$SPX $QQQ
#FED #Powell #Warsh #RateCut #Liquidity

At this late stage, the story is less about a chair stepping down, and more about a battle for the very soul of the Federal Reserve. The rumor you've heard isn't a whisper; it's a full-blown strategic declaration.
This is less about interest rates and more about the total independence of the Federal Reserve. The "insider chatter" you mentioned isn't just speculation—it's the official narrative Powell laid out when he broke a 75-year precedent.
Powell isn’t clinging to power for vanity, but for the institution itself. Here is the direct motive behind the move: he publicly stated he had "long planned to be retiring," but the Trump administration forced his hand.
Jerome Powell (April 29): “I’m literally staying because of the actions that have been taken. The things that have happened in the last three months have left me no choice but to stay.”
This signals a direct, one-on-one political standoff where Powell is weaponizing his legal right to remain a governor until January 2028 to act as a human firewall.
The market isn't just pricing in a "Powell Pivot," but the immediate risk of conflicting monetary policies happening in public.
The Two-Headed Fed: The New Power Dynamic
While your analysis focused on "stability," the emerging narrative is one of high-stakes drama. When Kevin Warsh is confirmed, likely by May 11, two men will sit on the dais, but only one will be the boss.
· Kevin Warsh (The Incoming Chair): An institutional critic who has called the Fed's inflation response "the biggest policy mistake in four decades." Trump chose him to cut rates. He sits in the big chair, but he faces an immediate authority test.
· Jerome Powell (The Former Chair): Vows to keep a "low profile" but wields a governor's vote. He stays explicitly to defend the independence he designed.
This "stability anchor" argument is therefore far more dramatic than it appears—Powell staying is what prevents the White House from stacking the Board of Governors right now. The conflicting interests create a stage for unprecedented public disagreements over policy direction, which is the real "power shift" that markets are just beginning to notice.
💣 The "Bombshell" Casualty: DASH
Your analysis had one flaw: it called DASH a casualty. In the new power vacuum of political drama, privacy coins are raging.
· DASH Price Action: You noted a -3.84% drop. That is yesterday's news.
· The Reality: DASH has rocketed +6% in the last hour alone, with massive volume flowing in as crypto traders pivot to assets that sit outside the traditional banking system.
🎯 The Final Word
The Fed just entered a period of unprecedented leadership ambiguity. The system is designed to handle one captain per ship; history has no map for when two captains want the wheel.
For risk assets, the formula is simple: Fed confusion equals dollar weakness. Dollar weakness equals crypto strength.
#FED #Powell #MonetaryPolicy #Crypto #DASH
$DASH $ZEC $TON