Introduction
Solana has been one of the standout performers of 2025, solidifying its position as a top-tier blockchain for dApps and NFTs. After an impressive run that saw it break through several psychological barriers, SOL is now in a crucial consolidation phase as we head into the new year. Is the momentum sustainable, or is a larger correction on the horizon? Let's dive into the charts.
1. The Weekly Chart: Bullish Continuation Pattern
Looking at the weekly timeframe, SOL has formed a clear bullish pennant pattern after its explosive rally earlier this year. This pattern typically suggests a continuation of the prior uptrend once the breakout occurs.
Key Resistance: The upper trendline of the pennant sits around $380-$390. A decisive weekly close above this level would be a strong bullish signal.
Key Support: The lower trendline, combined with the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), provides robust support in the $290-$300 range. As long as SOL holds above this, the long-term bullish structure remains intact.
Here's a visual representation of the weekly
chart:
2. The Daily Chart: Short-Term Consolidation & Volume
Zooming into the daily chart, we can see the short-term price action more clearly. SOL has been trading within a tighter range, reflecting the year-end uncertainty and lower trading volumes.
Immediate Resistance: The $360-$370 zone is acting as immediate resistance. Overcoming this is necessary for a move towards the weekly pennant's upper boundary.
Immediate Support: The 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $315 has provided good support recently. A break below this could signal a retest of the $290-$300 weekly support.
Volume Analysis: Notice the declining volume during this consolidation phase. This is typical for pennant formations and suggests that selling pressure is weakening. A significant spike in volume on a breakout will confirm the move.
Here's the daily chart:
3. Potential Targets & Conclusion
If Solana successfully breaks out of its weekly bullish pennant, the measured move target projects SOL towards the $450-$460 range in Q1 2026. This would represent a significant continuation of its bull run.
However, a breakdown below the $290-$300 weekly support could lead to a deeper correction towards the $250-$260 area, where previous resistance might turn into strong support.
Key Takeaways for Early 2026:
Watch for a breakout above $380-$390 on the weekly chart. This is the primary signal for continuation.Monitor volume: A strong volume surge accompanying a breakout will add conviction.Support at $290-$300 is critical. A loss of this level would shift the short-term bias to bearish.
What are your thoughts on Solana's trajectory into 2026? Share your predictions below!
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