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Berezin spoke with David Lin on The David Lin Report, as equity markets posted a brief gain on reports of possible Iran ceasefire talks. He was skeptical the rally would hold.
I kind of see the path of the stock market being like that,” Berezin said, comparing equities to a bouncing ball descending a staircase. “It’ll bounce up for a while, but ultimately it’ll end up lower than where it started.”
The Nasdaq had already pulled back roughly 7.5% year to date at the time of the interview, with a trough decline of about 12% making it the worst start to a year since 2022. Berezin explained that stocks remain expensive, trading around 20 times forward earnings on peak profit margins. He called cash his preferred asset class for now.
On oil, Berezin pointed to the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil supply passes, and noted that approximately 10% of world supply is currently being disrupted. Demand for oil is highly inelastic, he explained to Lin, meaning prices would likely need to double or triple to reduce consumption by 10%.
If we have a sustained decrease in global oil production of around 10%, then it’s very easy to see oil prices going to $200,” he said. Berezin added:
He noted that commodity traders have not followed equity investors into the recent rally, with oil prices remaining elevated above $100 a barrel. Berezin said that gap is a warning sign, given that commodity markets tend to be better informed about where energy prices are heading.
Recession probability for Europe and Japan sits closer to 50%, Berezin said, partly because higher oil prices hurt their terms of trade more than the United States. The dollar benefits in the short term from elevated crude, he added, but faces structural headwinds: a still-expensive valuation by purchasing power parity, decades of current account deficits, and central banks diversifying away from dollar reserves. He argued that gold stands to benefit from that diversification trend over the coming months and years, after a correction driven partly by retail profit-taking.
On the Iran conflict itself, Berezin said a negotiated resolution remains the base case but warned that a power vacuum following the killing of key Iranian leadership makes near-term compromise harder. He insisted that tougher political figures tend to rise in such environments, which works against a quick off-ramp.
The conversation shifted to artificial intelligence (AI) and its impact on the broader tech sector. Berezin detailed that the disruption has moved well past software and now threatens social media companies. He argued that AI agents may increasingly deliver content directly to users, reducing the value of platforms like Instagram and Youtube from destinations to mere content repositories.
On AI hardware, Berezin pointed to a Wall Street Journal report on Caltech research showing sharply lower computational costs for large language models (LLMs). He drew a parallel to internet infrastructure: data transmission has grown at a cumulative pace of roughly 500,000% over 25 years, yet spending on that infrastructure has fallen as a share of GDP. He said AI could follow a similar path, rendering the projected trillions in data center spending unnecessary.
The irony could be that we end up with an AI-empowered world, but we don’t need like trillions of dollars in data centers to get there,” he said.
That scenario, Berezin remarked, would be bearish for copper and base metals in the short term but potentially bullish over the long term, since genuine AI-driven productivity gains would eventually create demand for physical resources that remain finite.
Asked about anticipated 2026 IPOs including SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, Berezin said Anthropic was his pick if pressed, citing its positioning in business AI services and the advantage it would gain from lower compute costs. He also cautioned that a heavy IPO wave often signals a sector top.
He pushed back firmly on warnings from Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei that AI could eliminate half of all entry-level white-collar jobs and push unemployment to 10% to 20% within five years. Berezin stressed that economists know that productivity gains translate into income gains in equilibrium, and that any resulting inequality would likely trigger a fiscal and monetary policy response that prevents unemployment from rising sharply.
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Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, shared a series of lessons on social media platform X this week focused on how individuals can protect and grow wealth during prolonged global economic downturns, with particular emphasis on preparation, asset ownership, and bitcoin.
During a global economic crash, prices on many assets will crash,” Kiyosaki said, “which means a crash may be a good time to acquire assets, such as rental real estate… that provides cash flow.” The famous author noted:
Kiyosaki used this statement to explain that falling asset prices are not inherently negative if investors are financially prepared and liquid. He argued that crashes often reset valuations, allowing disciplined buyers to acquire income-generating assets at discounts. By referencing his experience across multiple downturns, he framed crashes as recurring cycles rather than rare catastrophes, reinforcing his broader lesson that wealth is built through counter-cyclical action rather than fear-driven retreat.
What would you do to increase your wealth during an economic crisis? Best to plan now,” the renowned author asked his followers, underscoring his belief that advance planning, not reaction, determines outcomes when markets deteriorate.
His follow-up posts expanded on the long-term nature of economic decline and his preference for hard and decentralized assets. Kiyosaki explained: “How you can get richer as the world economy collapses. Crashes do not happen overnight. Crashes take decades to occur.” He argued that today’s instability stems from decades of debt expansion and monetary intervention. From that perspective, the acclaimed author urged asset protection outside traditional systems, writing:
Kiyosaki presented bitcoin as “people’s money,” highlighting its fixed supply and independence from central banks as safeguards against currency debasement. Supporters of bitcoin echo this view, pointing to its transparent issuance and censorship resistance, while critics note volatility and regulatory uncertainty. Kiyosaki’s central lesson remains that understanding monetary history and positioning early are key to long-term financial resilience.
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Wall Street may be underestimating a major carry trade forming around bitcoin-linked income products, James E. Thorne, Chief Market Strategist at private wealth management firm Wellington Altus, said on May 3. The strategist pointed to early capital movement away from low-yield Fed funds toward higher-yield instruments such as Strategy’s Stretch (STRC), a Nasdaq-listed perpetual preferred stock, where returns significantly exceed traditional cash-like benchmarks.
His view centers on the widening gap between conventional “risk-free” rates and bitcoin-linked yields. Thorne’s comparison reflects a classic carry trade structure, where capital shifts out of lower-yielding assets to capture higher returns elsewhere, with Fed funds on one side and bitcoin-linked instruments on the other. Thorne said on social media platform X:
Strategy’s Stretch (STRC) pays a variable 11.50% annual dividend in monthly cash. Recent data shows a $99.86 price, an 11.52% effective yield, and $8.54 billion in notional value. Thirty-day average trading volume stands at $374.3 million, while volatility remains at 3.1%. The dividend resets monthly to keep STRC trading near its $100 par value.
STRC’s link to bitcoin comes through Strategy’s broader capital structure, where preferred instruments are supported by bitcoin-backed balance sheet exposure. Strategy currently holds 818,334 BTC, tying the company’s financial profile closely to bitcoin. This design connects investor returns indirectly to bitcoin performance while maintaining a traditional equity wrapper. As a result, STRC sits between conventional preferred securities and crypto-native yield products, offering exposure to bitcoin-linked economics without direct token ownership.
The spread itself is the key issue in Thorne’s argument. STRC’s scheduled income cycle includes a May 15, 2026, record date and a May 31, 2026, payout date, reinforcing its role as an income-focused instrument. Thorne said: “The spread is not a quirky crypto anomaly; it is the birth of a parallel risk-free curve in a tokenized system.” That framing shifts the discussion from a single product toward whether bitcoin-linked markets can develop alternative yield benchmarks.
Regulatory clarity could accelerate the trend. The strategist pointed to the CLARITY Act as a step toward defining U.S. digital-asset market structure and removing a key barrier for institutional participation. If that constraint is reduced, capital may not remain concentrated in traditional systems. Thorne said:
Together, the yield gap, STRC’s structured payouts, and possible U.S. market rules frame a developing test of whether bitcoin-linked income products can compete with traditional credit channels.
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