⚠️ Brothers holding L2 like Arbitrum or Mantle should pay attention to this case.
After the incident of losing ~$300M, the risk analysis team LlamaRisk (hired by Aave) presented 2 main scenarios:
🟡 Scenario 1: rsETH loses peg slightly
• Loss of peg ~15%
• Damage ~$123.7M
• Distributed evenly to holders
→ Ethereum bears the largest part (~$91.8M)
→ Damage is "spread out", not concentrated
👉 This scenario is lighter, like the market self-absorbing
🔴 Scenario 2: Damage concentrated on Layer 2
• Total bad debt could reach ~$230M
• Mantle: >$77M
• Arbitrum: ~$88M
• Base: ~$47M
• Ethereum is almost unaffected
👉 This is the heaviest scenario → L2 bears all the damage
🧠 Why is there a difference?
Due to the mechanism of KelpDAO:
• rsETH on Ethereum can be converted nearly 1:1
• But on Layer 2 it does not guarantee the same
👉 Quick conclusion for you:
• Hold L2 → must stay updated with news (especially MNT, ARB)
• Volatility can come very quickly if the market prices according to the bad scenario
• During this period, alt/L2 risks are higher than usual
=》 Not a panic-inducing news, but enough to be "highly alert" 👀
#BTC #ARB $ARB