The old dog glanced at the chart of
$COIN over the past 24 hours. The price was pulled up to around 172, up 2.484%, with volume of 5.85 million. It’s not explosive, but there was one number that made me watch for two more minutes: the funding rate didn’t move at all—it’s still zero. The price is up almost three points, yet neither side in longs or shorts is willing to pay interest. That’s not something you typically see in Binance’s USDT perpetuals.
I figured it out: OI (open interest) is reporting at 35,069. There doesn’t seem to be any obvious buildup, which suggests the increase isn’t one-sided—more like spot-driven movement or passive short covering, not a contract-fueled breakout explosion.
In previous instances when
$COIN printed consecutive green candles, the funding rate would usually flip positive within about half an hour, reaching around 0.01%. This time the calm is unusual. One explanation is that over in US stocks, Coinbase’s share price didn’t spark much FOMO in the first place, so the on-chain derivatives are following very cautiously. But looking the other way, a no-funding premium like this actually gives longs room to add positions without the usual risks of overcrowding and stampede.
The old dog remembers last year’s Q4 had a similar setup: COIN slowly pushed along while sticking close to the 20-day moving average, funding stayed neutral the whole time, and then within the final two weeks it pushed above 200—only for the funding rate to turn positive belatedly. Of course, history won’t repeat itself exactly. After that, the overall market pulled back, and COIN fell back below 150. The dog’s master still managed to harvest.
Zooming in on the current price levels: the 170 round-number level is a near-term balance point. The previous low at 165 is strong support. If over the next 24 hours
$COIN can hold above 175 and OI doesn’t jump much, I’d enter with a light position to ride the trend, with a stop-loss placed at 167.
The main disagreement is that market sentiment is still worried about regulation and dwindling trading volume. But what I’m focused on is the message itself: funding staying neutral. It’s a signal that the shorts don’t have confidence. If there were truly plenty of bearish money, the funding rate would’ve been hammered into negative territory already.
My position-taking method is pretty crafty. I’m not expecting to catch the whole fish. I’ll reduce in batches around 182, and I won’t chase it if it rockets higher. Last time I held
$COIN and bet on the breakout after the funding rate turned positive—result: I got hit by a fake breakout that buried 60% of the position. The old dog stepped right into dog shit just the same. This time, encountering that odd move with funding at zero, I’d rather earn a little less than be the one who clenches their teeth and adds more.
Trading tag:
#BinanceFutures #TradFi #USDⓈM
#COIN #COINUSDT $COIN