Have you noticed that this week is quite strange? Ethereum's initial surge at the beginning of the week at 2416, as the "leader", has turned into a "drag" today when Bitcoin easily touched 76400?
In fact, that was the market seeking arbitrage opportunities for a rebound after the BTC fluctuations (ETH/BTC exchange rate correction). However, as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield returned to over 4.3%, the "cost" of global funds surged. But when BTC surged to the recent high of 76,400 today, the incremental funds in the market were almost zero. At this moment, existing funds were forced to withdraw from ETH and flow back into BTC to support its breakout (the siphoning effect of Bitcoin). This explains why BTC is rising today, while ETH can't even touch the "neck" of 2380.
I have always emphasized that geopolitical issues have shifted from "sudden conflicts" to "diplomatic games", and the risk premium that originally boosted cryptocurrencies is rapidly being stripped away. ETH has lost the umbrella of the war narrative and is directly exposed to the heavy pressure of high U.S. Treasury yields. Therefore, friends who have read my previous articles know that my logic has not changed. Since today is Friday, let's simulate the storyline for next week. I summarize it in one sentence: the real "deep clearing" is brewing next week.
Reason One: Because with two dips this week and the arrival of the "emotional freezing point", BTC has lacked the volume to sustain above 76,000. So next Monday, once the U.S. stock market shows profit-taking at high levels, BTC is likely to form a "double top" structure and retest 73,000. Once the total valve is closed, Ethereum will face a more severe correction than this week.
Reason Two: The "second bottom-seeking" of the ETH/BTC exchange rate. The current exchange rate (about 0.031) shows no signs of stopping the decline. Therefore, next week ETH may gradually break below the key neck line of 2,280 during fluctuations, testing the vacuum area of 2,150 - 2,210 downwards.
Reason Three: The "knife stab" of macro data. Next week will welcome new inflation expectation data. If the U.S. Treasury yields stubbornly hold at 4.3%, global institutions' reduction actions will shift from "defensive" to "liquidation".
Why is this happening?
#eth