signals

Ethereum (ETHUSD) has been trading within a Channel Down for the entirety of its Bear Cycle since the August 24 2025 All Time High (ATH). The price is now marginally below the Top (Lower Highs trend-line) of this pattern, having just broken above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, which is where the previous Bearish Leg got rejected.
This pattern has so far had two Bearish Legs, both strongly symmetrical. The 1st declined by -47%, while the second completed a -48.69% total drop. Right now it appears that we are getting out of the standard consolidation phase that kick-starts the next Bearish Leg. As long as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) holds as a Resistance, the pattern remains valid and the 3rd Bearish Leg should start.
A new -47% correction would put us a little under the April 09 2025 Low. As a result, our Target Zone is $1390 - $1300.
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First of all Happy Labor Day to those who celebrate it and on that note, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) just closed 2 straight green months! This is a rare feat for a Bear Cycle as since 2011 and the first ever Bear Cycle, BTC recorded 2 straight green 1M candles only on two occasions.
First time during the 2014 Bear Cycle between May - June and a second time during the 2022 Bear Cycle between February - March. So the third time ever for that feat just took place. There have never been 3 straight green months on a Bear Cycle, so historically we should see BTC resuming the downtrend this month.
It is also interesting to note that both previous occasions took place exactly half-way (2014) through the Bear Cycle or marginally earlier (2022). This technically confirms the sentiment that we have been expressing on previous analyses, that we are currently in the middle of the 2026 Bear Cycle.
Also, we have a historic first. With April's closing, we have this month the first ever emergence of the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line, actually dash). Despite Bitcoin being around since 2009, it just now completed the necessary price (candle) action to display a 1M MA200 and that just shows what investing is about on the long-term scale. Patience.
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This chart is a detailed analysis of Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) full Cycle activity both Bull and Bear. The symmetry of the Bull Cycle has been incredible, from Bottom to Top it can be divided exactly into three Stages of 50 weeks (350 days) each and those further into two, bringing us 6 Phases in total.
If we apply the same 350 day duration on the Bear Cycle from its October 06 2025 Top, we get a September 21 2026 potential Bottom expectation, which is virtually the same as early October two weeks later. Applying the same Phase structure, we can see that BTC has already entered Phase 2, which is obviously the final one of the Bear Cycle.
This 'Tomography' also confirms the 4-year Cycle Theory and it remains to be seen at which price the Bear Cycle bottoms. The previous one bottomed exactly on the 1W MA350 (red trend-line), so as mentioned many times before, we are looking for at least a $50000 test before it bottoms (more likely around 45k).
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