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After research showed a small minority moves prices, new data suggests an even smaller group captures roughly half of all gains
Across Polymarket’s politics markets between December 2025 and February 2026, just 0.55% of profitable maker wallets captured 50% of gains, the report finds, while 0.26% of winning taker wallets accounted for nearly the same share. In dollar terms, roughly $8 million of about $16 million in profits accrued to each of those tiny cohorts.
The data sharpens a picture already forming in academic work: a London Business School and Yale paper, previously analyzed by CoinDesk, found that about 3% of Polymarket traders drive most price discovery.
A small minority moves the prices. A smaller minority keeps the money.
The contrast underscores a key point: concentration does not necessarily imply wrongdoing. Some traders are simply more sophisticated, better capitalized, or faster to act on information. But the report argues that the scale of the imbalance suggests a structural divide between a small group operating with significant advantages and the broader base of participants.
The participants capturing a disproportionate share of profits are operating in a different league entirely,” the report said, pointing to capital depth, infrastructure, and execution strategies that are out of reach for most users.
Solidus' study also flags signs of wash trading, with roughly 15% of volume in some markets showing patterns consistent with self-trading or economically neutral positions.
Because outcome tokens in a binary prediction market sum to roughly $1.00, a trader could buy YES on both Trump and Harris inside the same time window, register volume on each leg, and finish economically delta-neutral.
Solidus says this trade has no equivalent in traditional finance.
Some of that volume may be incentive farming rather than pure manipulation. It's widely speculated that Polymarket's upcoming $POLY airdrop will factor in trading volume as a metric to allocate tokens.
Solidus is not a neutral observer. The firm sells HALO, the surveillance platform whose output the report relies on, and recently signed a deal to deploy that platform across more than 4,000 markets on Kalshi, Polymarket's largest U.S.-regulated competitor.
The data is onchain and verifiable. The framing — that prediction markets need surveillance infrastructure, preferably Solidus's — is part of the pitch.
That doesn't change the underlying numbers. It does suggest reading them with a hand on the wallet.
If earlier research showed that a small minority moves these markets, the latest data suggests an even starker conclusion: an even smaller group consistently wins them.
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The legendary cryptographer discusses institutional money flows into bitcoin.
The bitcoin ETFs could be the single most important development of recent times when it comes to positive market signals, more so even than a pro-crypto U.S. administration, Back said, but it takes longer than most people realize. It won't be immediate.
“I think what people may have miscalculated is that institutional adoption is very slow,” said Back in an interview with Coindesk. “So the ETFs got bought, but when BlackRock is saying they recommend 2% to 4% allocation in their general stock portfolio, the fund managers haven't done that yet. And they will, but it's slower than people anticipate.”
Investors don't just pile in overnight, he said. A build-up could take a year, even 18 months.
Some of that stuff is just starting to happen, and it will happen slowly. So I think there's a tailwind.”
Founded in 2014 by Back and other prominent Bitcoin developers, Blockstream offers retail and institutional clients self-custody wallets, layer-2 network settlement and asset issuance. Back is also the CEO and co-founder of BSTR, a bitcoin treasury company looking to go public via a SPAC merger with Cantor Equity Partners (CEPO).
While ETFs may trump the government for boosting the industry, there's still a regulatory influence. Consider President Donald Trump's crypto-friendly term and compare it with the previous administration's Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Chair Gary Gensler’s assault on the industry.
Instead, the U.S. now has a presidency that not only introduced a new legislative framework for crypto, but even launched its own token shop.
They've definitely improved the open-for-business framework in the U.S., which has indirectly encouraged other jurisdictions to do likewise," said Back, who lives in Malta. "So the U.K.’s FCA [Financial Conduct Authority] finally approved ETFs for retirement accounts and things. And I think maybe one or two other countries. They look at each other.”
While Donald Trump’s America may be open for crypto business, the now-established bitcoin ETFs have the power to transcend administrations, whether Republican or Democrat, Back pointed out.
One of the reasons to suppose the 'open for business' is going to stay, even as you get new administrations, is that now Black Rock and the other ETF providers are going to defend their business,” he said.
They're going to apply a banking lobby to say they make a lot of money from the bitcoin ETF. We don't want you to interfere with it. And so I think that now bitcoin has new allies in Black Rock, Morgan Stanley and Fidelity and all these guys.”
People are trying to say it's a factor,” Back said of quantum technology’s effect on the price of bitcoin. “But I think there's a lot of information asymmetry in these markets, meaning that things which you think are perfectly clear are confusing to some other people, and their uncertainty impacts their decisions.”
That said, the recent round of quantum doomsaying may have institutions paying a bit of attention, Back conceded.
Institutions are more systematic about risk,” he said. “So if there's a tail risk, even a small one, they want to know that it's covered. For retail investors, it sounds like something in the distant future that perhaps they’re not really worried about. But institutions will think a decade ahead and ask, ‘Is this 1% risk? Is there an answer to it?’ They'll check stuff like that.”
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VeChain ($VET ) is one of those cryptocurrencies that quietly keeps building while others chase hype cycles. Listed on Binance and backed by real-world partnerships, VeChain focuses on supply chain management and enterprise solutions.
Unlike many speculative coins, VeChain is already being used by companies to track products, verify authenticity, and improve logistics transparency. This gives it a strong use case in industries like luxury goods, agriculture, and pharmaceuticals.
One of VeChain’s biggest strengths is its dual-token system: $VET and VTHO. While VET stores value, VTHO is used to pay for transactions, making the network more stable and predictable for businesses.
From an SEO and investment perspective, keywords like “VeChain use cases,” “$VET price prediction,” and “blockchain supply chain solutions” are increasingly searched as real-world adoption becomes a bigger narrative in crypto.
While it’s not trending daily on social media, VeChain’s steady development and enterprise adoption make it a project worth watching in the long term.
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You won't regret it😍$BTC #Binance #EthereumFoundationUnstakes$48.9MillionWorthofETH $F #VeChainNodeMarketplace

Iran's foreign minister visits Islamabad, fueling speculation on renewed peace talks
Peru faces electoral uncertainty as probe targets ex-chief electoral official
Brazil's central bank expected to cut rates next week
LatAm assets broadly headed for weekly losses
April 24 (Reuters) - Currencies and stocks of Latin American economies ​dipped on Friday with investors awaiting updates on Middle East talks, while also monitoring electoral developments in Peru
Global markets have been fraught ‌with volatility this week as initial hope that a peace deal could be reached between Iran and the U.S. did not materialize, even as the ceasefire between all adversaries was extended.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi arrived in Islamabad on Friday, the venue for past peace talks with the United States, although there were no clear signs that he would meet with ​U.S. negotiators there.
Crude prices, a key driver for markets, wavered and were last at $105 a barrel as shipments through the strategic Strait of Hormuz ​remained thin.
In Latin America, Brazil's real led gains with a 0.4% rise, while Chile's peso firmed 0.2% and the pesos ⁠of Colombia and Mexico were steady.
MSCI's broader LatAm currencies index (.MILA00000CUS), opens new tab was on track for weekly declines - its first since the first week of March - as ​investors flocked to the safe-haven dollar.
A corresponding gauge for equities (.MILA00000PUS), opens new tab was down 0.6% at over two-week lows and set for weekly losses
Peru's former chief ​electoral official, who resigned this week amid mounting criticism over delays in counting votes from the April 12 general election, is now under investigation as part of a broader probe into alleged electoral irregularities, with police raiding his home to collect evidence.
The sol weakened 0.5% and was on track for its second straight week in the red, as investors weighed what ​the investigation could mean for the election results now expected in May.
Conservative candidate Keiko Fujimori currently leads, with left‑wing lawmaker Roberto Sanchez and former Lima ​mayor Rafael Lopez Aliaga in a tight race for second place. A run-off is anticipated in June.
MSCI's index tracking Peruvian equities (.MIPE00000PUS), opens new tab was little changed on Friday and was set ‌for its ⁠second straight week of losses, while international bonds maturing next year were on track for their third straight week of declines.
We expect the U.S. to continue strengthening its ties in Latin America to bolster its geopolitical influence," said Gillian Edgeworth, fixed-income portfolio manager at Wellington Management, while also adding that some countries in the region could benefit from higher commodity prices due to the Middle East conflict.
Meanwhile, data showed that Mexico's economic activity expanded slightly in February but missed expectations, extending ​its rough patch since the start ​of the year.
Uncertainty prevails over the ⁠central bank's next policy move alongside the outcome of United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement negotiations expected to start next month.
There is progress in the review, but the process is unlikely to be smooth. Recent headlines suggest Mexico will continue facing unilateral tariffs ​in the auto, steel, and aluminum industries despite reaching a deal," Citigroup economists said in a note
The country's equities ​index (.MXX), opens new tab gained 0.9% on ⁠Friday, while benchmarks in Chile (.SPIPSA), opens new tab and Argentina (.MERV), opens new tab were up 1.6% and 0.3%, respectively
Meanwhile, Brazil's finance minister told Reuters that the country's planned critical mineral rules do not involve fresh tax breaks. He added that critical minerals would be a priority in a May or June auction for the Eco Invest program, which offers blended finance to ⁠lure foreign ​investment.
A key event next week will be an interest rate decision in Brazil, with economists projecting a cut ​by a quarter of a percentage point. The Bovespa index (.BVSP), opens new tab slipped 0.5% and is on track for weekly losses
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Zcash just bounced strongly off the $300 support.
The daily RSI is once again rising above 60, indicating that bullish momentum is accelerating.
Our near-term target of $500 stands, meaning a 40% upside potential for ZEC in the near term.
Zcash (ZEC) has gone up by 11% in the past 24 hours as this privacy token seems to be coming back to life after a pronounced downturn.
Trading volumes have jumped by 76% during this period, currently accounting for nearly 11% of the asset’s circulating market cap at $630 million
ZEC is now trading above $350 as market sentiment has improved dramatically in the past few days. The price of oil is currently hovering slightly above $90, as the situation in the Middle East has stabilized to some extent
Although the relationship between Iran and the United States remains tense, market participants seem to think that the worst of this conflict has passed
The Fear and Greed Index reflects this view, as we saw a strong shift in the index’s trajectory recently, climbing to “Greed” territory for the first time since October 2025.
This reflects a growing appetite for risk and increases the odds of a much stronger relief rally ahead as bears get squeezed out of their positions. It also means a major turnaround compared to the “Extreme Fear” levels we saw in February.
In previous occassions, when sentiment changes directions this way, it usually means that we have hit either a local or a cycle bottom. For ZEC, that would be the $200 area
ZEC liquidations spiked in the past few days to $2 – $3 million, indicating an ongoing short squeeze. We saw much stronger spikes exceeding $10 million earlier this month as the token climbed above the $300 level.
We expect to see similar liquidations if the market pushes ZEC above $400 in the next few days.
According to data from Artemis, trading volumes for ZEC spiked to levels that have previously signaled high conviction moves.
Looking at the chart, we can see that weekly volumes rose above $4 billion back in October 2025, when Zcash started rallying from $166 to $700 in just two months. Similarly, volumes stood above that level as the token dipped and the price trend changed direction.
What this indicates is that “high-conviction” moves tend to be preceded by a spike in weekly volumes above the $4 billion threshold.
Interestingly, the past two weeks have ended near that mark. Data from CoinMarketCap shows that volumes this week have hit $1.8 billion from Monday to Thursday. This results in a simple run-rate of $3.1 billion for the entire week if the current trend persists.
Hence, we are still not in “high-conviction” territory, but this remains an interesting metric to watch as it could confirm the beginning of a definite change in Zcash’s trend direction if that $4 billion threshold is surpassed.Heading to the daily chart, a triple bottom formed at $200 between February and March. Buying interest was strong at this level and ultimately led to a break above a descending triangle.
Meanwhile, ZEC has now moved past the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), meaning that the price trend has shifted from bearish to bullish.
After breaking above $300, the price retested this level from above and has now consolidated a strong bounce off this mark that could set the stage for a much stronger rally to $500. This means a 41% upside potential for the token.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently hit “overbought” as it rose to 80, and the price started to retreat right after. After a brief pullback, it jumped back above 50 and currently sits at 64.
This means that bullish momentum is still strong, and further confirms that Zcash could be on track to hit $400 first and then $500 if it breaks that psychological resistance.
This confirms that Zcash must break past this sell wall to keep rallying or risk a much stronger drop, which would could possibly lead to a break below $300 this time.
We would like to see a similar cluster of “buys” after this strong bounce to confirm that bulls are back in the game. This would raise the odds of a break above that $400 wall and set the stage for the continuation of the rally toward the $500 target.
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The United States Army announced last month that it would raise the maximum age at which Americans can enlist from 35 to 42 years to expand its pool of eligible candidates amid recruiting challenges in recent years.
An updated version of US Army Regulation 601–210, dated March 20, outlined the changes, including the elimination of rules requiring anyone with a single conviction for marijuana possession or drug paraphernalia to obtain a waiver to enlist
Government data shows that while the US Army has met its recruitment goals over the last two years, it fell short in 2022 and 2023 and has consistently failed to meet targets for the Army Reserve, shortcomings that analysts have attributed to several possible factors
The new age limit was announced during the US-Israel war on Iran, towards which young people have expressed widespread opposition
Here’s what you need to know about the changes
The updated version of Army Regulation 601–210 officially takes effect on Monday, April 20
The US Army announced updated enlistment regulations on March 20, with the changes scheduled to take effect one month later on April 20 and applying to the Regular Army, Army Reserve, and Army National Guard.
The maximum enlistment age is raised from 35 to 42, and previous restrictions requiring anyone with a single conviction for possession of marijuana or drug paraphernalia to obtain a waiver to enlist are done away with
The changes announced in March are specific to the US Army
The military news outlet Stars and Stripes reported that those changes bring the army into greater alignment with the maximum enlistment age of other branches of the military, such as the Air Force, Navy, Coast Guard, and Space Force, which accept enlistees in their early 40s
While the US Army did not comment on the reasons for the increase, data from the US Army Recruiting Command show that the army has struggled with recruitment challenges
While the army met 100 percent of its recruitment goals in 2025 and 2024, it missed its target by about 23 percent in 2023 and 25 percent in 2022
That data also shows that the army has fallen short of recruitment targets for the Army Reserve for the last six years in a row
The average age of army recruits has risen in recent years to 22.7, up from 21.7 in the 2000s and 21.1 in the 2010s, according to the military news outlet Army Times, citing data from a US Army spokesperson
The US Army Recruiting Command has attributed such challenges to issues such as changes in the labour market, limited awareness about military service, and a lack of qualified young people due to issues such as obesity, drug use, and mental health issues
A 2018 poll listed concerns over possible injury and death, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), separation from family and friends, and other career interests as top reasons offered by young people for not joining the military
Data from the US Army Recruiting Command shows that about 80 percent of recruits in the Regular Army were men in 2025.
Black and Latino recruits also make up a larger share of army recruits than their percentage of the population, each making up about 27 percent of recruits while comprising 14 percent and 20 percent of the general population, according to data from the 2024 census
White people made up about 40 percent of US Army recruits, while about 57 percent of the general population.
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Listen carefully ‼️ I’m watching $RAVE VE very closely. Previously it pumped from around $0.50 all the way to $28, and now price has returned back near the same $0.50 zone. The big question is — can it repeat that explosive move again toward $20–$28, or was that a one-time hype cycle???
In my view, expecting another move to $28 right now is unrealistic. The current structure is weak after a massive crash, and recovery may take time with lower highs likely before any major rally. Let’s see how it develops — share your opinion below 👇
#VeChainNodeMarketplace

I will start by asking this question.
If the rewards become less noisy, does the game still give people a reason to care?
When I played, I remember the first time I was looking at @Pixels less as a game and more as a test.
Not a test of noise. Not a test of code performance. A test of something much harder.
Whether a Web3 game still matters once money stops being the most obvious reason for interest.