The US-Iran negotiations have broken down, BTC fell below 72000

Just today, after several days of turmoil, the US-Iran negotiations have completely collapsed.

Iran's entire team dressed in black went to the meeting, carrying the backpacks and shoes of the deceased students. After the last round of talks, Vance said, "Iran chose not to accept the US conditions."

Then Trump tweeted: The maritime blockade is his "ultimate trump card."

As soon as the news broke, BTC directly fell below 72000, with a 24-hour drop of 1.62%.

You might think, what does this have to do with me?

It matters a lot.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil passes daily. If it is truly blocked—oil prices will soar, inflation expectations will surge, and the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations will be delayed, putting pressure on risk assets across the board.

The crypto market has never been an island; it is closely tied to geopolitical factors.

Remember these three points:

First, this negotiation failure occurred earlier than the market expected, and the market hasn't had time to price in this risk.

Second, the probability of "ending before April 15" on Polymarket has plummeted 22%, dropping to 47%, indicating that the market no longer believes in a short-term easing.

Third, Bitcoin's next key support is at 70000; if the situation in Hormuz continues to worsen, this level may also not hold.

This is why the breakdown of negotiations is more important than most of the "big events" you think.