It's not going to happen, once the ceasefire is in place, the real bull market will come.
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谷海木兰A
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Iran's latest news has exploded! No one expected that the usually tough Iran is really in a hurry this time, and even the usual cover-up is no longer being done.
On April 14, the Iranian government spokesperson directly presented a chillingly high loss bill in front of the whole world — under the continuous strikes from the US and Israel, Iran's economic losses have already reached 270 billion USD!
This is not a small amount; for Iran, it is a devastating blow. To put it in perspective, Iran's total oil export revenue for the entire year of 2024 is only 43 billion USD, and this 270 billion is equivalent to more than 6 years of oil revenue going down the drain. More critically, Iranian government spokesperson Mohajerani clearly stated that this is just a preliminary estimate, and as evaluations deepen, the number may increase, which is staggering to think about.
Some may wonder how this 270 billion USD was calculated. It can't just be a random figure thrown out by Iran, right? It's not; this bill hides many shocking details. First, there are the direct damages to facilities. The strikes by the US and Israel did not differentiate between military and civilian targets; Iran's petrochemical facilities in Bushehr province were repeatedly bombed, 39 commercial ships were directly sunk, and 110 fishing boats were destroyed in an instant, even the port's navigation and vessel traffic service systems were completely damaged.
The losses concerning people's livelihoods are even more heart-wrenching. According to documents submitted by Iran to the International Maritime Organization, over 125,000 civilian facilities were bombed, 339 hospitals, 857 schools, and 32 universities have turned to ruins, 277 students lost their lives in the attacks, and over 3,000 civilians have died in total. Currently, 3 million people in Iran are displaced, with 500,000 having no place to live; all this reconstruction will cost astronomical amounts.
The indirect losses are even harder to quantify. The Strait of Hormuz, a global energy lifeline, has been affected by the conflict, and Iran's oil export channels have been severely blocked. According to data from the International Energy Agency, the global daily oil flow has already decreased by 13%, and the flow of liquefied natural gas has reduced by 20%. Although Iran's oil exports have not completely halted, revenues have drastically shrunk, and the path that originally relied on oil for foreign exchange has been completely blocked.
What’s even worse is the currency devaluation and soaring inflation. As the situation tightened, the Iranian currency exchange rate collapsed, and import prices skyrocketed, causing the cost of living for ordinary people to rise sharply. There is also foreign capital withdrawal; originally planned infrastructure and energy cooperation projects have all stopped, disrupting the country's development plans for the next few years. All these unseen losses have been included in the 270 billion USD bill.
Iran's willingness to openly disclose its losses this time can be summed up as being pushed to the brink. Previously, the negotiations between the US and Iran in Islamabad collapsed, and the US immediately sent more than 10,000 soldiers, dozens of warships, and several aircraft to blockade Iranian ports, intercepting 6 Iranian vessels in the first 24 hours, effectively cutting off Iran's financial lifeline. Iranian President Raeisi even complained during a call with French President Macron, saying that the failure of negotiations was entirely due to the US's excessive demands and lack of sincerity.
However, Iran is not sitting idly by; it is directly pointing the finger of compensation at the entire region. Iran's permanent representative to the United Nations, Iravani, has already written to the UN Secretary-General, specifically demanding compensation from Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, and Jordan, with a simple reason: these countries provided bases, airspace, and logistical support to the US military, making them participants in the war, not neutral bystanders. This logic is indeed quite firm, as Bahrain is home to the US Fifth Fleet headquarters, and Qatar's Al Udeid Air Base houses 10,000 US troops; these bases are the front lines in the US and Israel's attacks on Iran.
In response to Iran's tough stance, the US has not softened. Trump has stated that he will not allow Iran to 'extort the whole world' and threatened to take back Iran's enriched uranium. Currently, the US military has deployed 16 warships in the Middle East, including aircraft carriers and destroyers. Although they have not directly entered the Persian Gulf, the blockade continues to escalate, and the tension between both sides is growing.
Interestingly, while tensions appear high on the surface, the door for negotiations has not been completely closed behind the scenes. Senior Iranian officials have revealed that the US and Iran may return to Islamabad for continued negotiations this weekend, and Trump has also confirmed that a second round of talks might be held in the next two days. This 270 billion USD bill is more like a bargaining chip for Iran, laying out the losses on the table for the US and its supporting countries to see the potential costs of continuing the conflict.
Now the whole world is watching the situation in the Middle East; if the Strait of Hormuz is completely closed, international oil prices could surge, leading to chaos not only in the Middle East but also affecting the global economy, potentially increasing the costs of travel and fuel for ordinary people. Iran's exorbitant bill can be seen less as a complaint and more as an ultimatum: either sit down and negotiate properly to compensate for the losses and lift the blockade, or continue to drag on and see who can last longer.
The next few days are crucial. Whether US-Iran negotiations can be restarted and whether Gulf countries will adjust their positions under pressure will determine the direction of the situation. But one thing is certain: the 270 billion USD loss is now laid out, and regardless of how this conflict ends, Iran's wounds will take many years to heal, and the entire Middle Eastern landscape may also change radically because of this bill. Do you think the US and Iran can ultimately reach an agreement? Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments.
On April 14, the Iranian government spokesperson directly presented a chillingly high loss bill in front of the whole world — under the continuous strikes from the US and Israel, Iran's economic losses have already reached 270 billion USD!
This is not a small amount; for Iran, it is a devastating blow. To put it in perspective, Iran's total oil export revenue for the entire year of 2024 is only 43 billion USD, and this 270 billion is equivalent to more than 6 years of oil revenue going down the drain. More critically, Iranian government spokesperson Mohajerani clearly stated that this is just a preliminary estimate, and as evaluations deepen, the number may increase, which is staggering to think about.
Some may wonder how this 270 billion USD was calculated. It can't just be a random figure thrown out by Iran, right? It's not; this bill hides many shocking details. First, there are the direct damages to facilities. The strikes by the US and Israel did not differentiate between military and civilian targets; Iran's petrochemical facilities in Bushehr province were repeatedly bombed, 39 commercial ships were directly sunk, and 110 fishing boats were destroyed in an instant, even the port's navigation and vessel traffic service systems were completely damaged.
The losses concerning people's livelihoods are even more heart-wrenching. According to documents submitted by Iran to the International Maritime Organization, over 125,000 civilian facilities were bombed, 339 hospitals, 857 schools, and 32 universities have turned to ruins, 277 students lost their lives in the attacks, and over 3,000 civilians have died in total. Currently, 3 million people in Iran are displaced, with 500,000 having no place to live; all this reconstruction will cost astronomical amounts.
The indirect losses are even harder to quantify. The Strait of Hormuz, a global energy lifeline, has been affected by the conflict, and Iran's oil export channels have been severely blocked. According to data from the International Energy Agency, the global daily oil flow has already decreased by 13%, and the flow of liquefied natural gas has reduced by 20%. Although Iran's oil exports have not completely halted, revenues have drastically shrunk, and the path that originally relied on oil for foreign exchange has been completely blocked.
What’s even worse is the currency devaluation and soaring inflation. As the situation tightened, the Iranian currency exchange rate collapsed, and import prices skyrocketed, causing the cost of living for ordinary people to rise sharply. There is also foreign capital withdrawal; originally planned infrastructure and energy cooperation projects have all stopped, disrupting the country's development plans for the next few years. All these unseen losses have been included in the 270 billion USD bill.
Iran's willingness to openly disclose its losses this time can be summed up as being pushed to the brink. Previously, the negotiations between the US and Iran in Islamabad collapsed, and the US immediately sent more than 10,000 soldiers, dozens of warships, and several aircraft to blockade Iranian ports, intercepting 6 Iranian vessels in the first 24 hours, effectively cutting off Iran's financial lifeline. Iranian President Raeisi even complained during a call with French President Macron, saying that the failure of negotiations was entirely due to the US's excessive demands and lack of sincerity.
However, Iran is not sitting idly by; it is directly pointing the finger of compensation at the entire region. Iran's permanent representative to the United Nations, Iravani, has already written to the UN Secretary-General, specifically demanding compensation from Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, and Jordan, with a simple reason: these countries provided bases, airspace, and logistical support to the US military, making them participants in the war, not neutral bystanders. This logic is indeed quite firm, as Bahrain is home to the US Fifth Fleet headquarters, and Qatar's Al Udeid Air Base houses 10,000 US troops; these bases are the front lines in the US and Israel's attacks on Iran.
In response to Iran's tough stance, the US has not softened. Trump has stated that he will not allow Iran to 'extort the whole world' and threatened to take back Iran's enriched uranium. Currently, the US military has deployed 16 warships in the Middle East, including aircraft carriers and destroyers. Although they have not directly entered the Persian Gulf, the blockade continues to escalate, and the tension between both sides is growing.
Interestingly, while tensions appear high on the surface, the door for negotiations has not been completely closed behind the scenes. Senior Iranian officials have revealed that the US and Iran may return to Islamabad for continued negotiations this weekend, and Trump has also confirmed that a second round of talks might be held in the next two days. This 270 billion USD bill is more like a bargaining chip for Iran, laying out the losses on the table for the US and its supporting countries to see the potential costs of continuing the conflict.
Now the whole world is watching the situation in the Middle East; if the Strait of Hormuz is completely closed, international oil prices could surge, leading to chaos not only in the Middle East but also affecting the global economy, potentially increasing the costs of travel and fuel for ordinary people. Iran's exorbitant bill can be seen less as a complaint and more as an ultimatum: either sit down and negotiate properly to compensate for the losses and lift the blockade, or continue to drag on and see who can last longer.
The next few days are crucial. Whether US-Iran negotiations can be restarted and whether Gulf countries will adjust their positions under pressure will determine the direction of the situation. But one thing is certain: the 270 billion USD loss is now laid out, and regardless of how this conflict ends, Iran's wounds will take many years to heal, and the entire Middle Eastern landscape may also change radically because of this bill. Do you think the US and Iran can ultimately reach an agreement? Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments.
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