#YenSlidesToFourDecadeLow
💴 The free fall fueling crypto (and the bomb that could blow)
The yen hit 160.80 per dollar, its lowest level in 40 years. The government spent $73 billion in April-May to defend it, but the currency can't seem to stop its decline. The next critical level is 161.95 (December 1986).
🔍 Why is it weakening?
The Bank of Japan raised rates to 1% (highest since 1995), but the Fed keeps rates at 3.50%-3.75%. This gap of 250-275 basis points makes the dollar way more attractive. The market has ignored the BoJ's hike.
💸 The "carry trade": cheap liquidity for crypto
Investors are borrowing yen at low interest, converting it to dollars, and pumping it into high-yield assets, including crypto. As long as the yen stays weak, there's cheap liquidity boosting bitcoin and altcoins.
⚠️ The risk: a sudden reversal
If the yen strengthens (due to intervention or changing expectations), investors who borrowed in yen will be forced to buy yen to close their positions, which means selling off assets (including $BTC ). Back in August 2024, a yen reversal triggered a massive Bitcoin drop and cascading liquidations.
🧠 What to expect?
· The government says it will intervene "at any moment," but the rate gap is the root of the issue.
· If the yen breaks 161.95, it could trigger sell-offs in the carry trade and bearish pressure on crypto.
· If it stabilizes, the carry trade will continue supporting prices.
A weak yen is a double-edged sword: cheap liquidity for upward moves, but a risk of chain liquidations if it reverses.
Will Japan intervene or let the yen follow its course? 👇
#Yen #carrytrade #forex $JASMY $EWJ
💴 The free fall fueling crypto (and the bomb that could blow)
The yen hit 160.80 per dollar, its lowest level in 40 years. The government spent $73 billion in April-May to defend it, but the currency can't seem to stop its decline. The next critical level is 161.95 (December 1986).
🔍 Why is it weakening?
The Bank of Japan raised rates to 1% (highest since 1995), but the Fed keeps rates at 3.50%-3.75%. This gap of 250-275 basis points makes the dollar way more attractive. The market has ignored the BoJ's hike.
💸 The "carry trade": cheap liquidity for crypto
Investors are borrowing yen at low interest, converting it to dollars, and pumping it into high-yield assets, including crypto. As long as the yen stays weak, there's cheap liquidity boosting bitcoin and altcoins.
⚠️ The risk: a sudden reversal
If the yen strengthens (due to intervention or changing expectations), investors who borrowed in yen will be forced to buy yen to close their positions, which means selling off assets (including $BTC ). Back in August 2024, a yen reversal triggered a massive Bitcoin drop and cascading liquidations.
🧠 What to expect?
· The government says it will intervene "at any moment," but the rate gap is the root of the issue.
· If the yen breaks 161.95, it could trigger sell-offs in the carry trade and bearish pressure on crypto.
· If it stabilizes, the carry trade will continue supporting prices.
A weak yen is a double-edged sword: cheap liquidity for upward moves, but a risk of chain liquidations if it reverses.
Will Japan intervene or let the yen follow its course? 👇
#Yen #carrytrade #forex $JASMY $EWJ