This Bitcoin bottom “carving on a boat” chart has sparked a lot of discussion among the group mates~
Using the carving-on-a-boat formula in the chart, this time the bottom at $BTC is around $30K.
It’s also the level that everyone discusses the most and likes the most.
But one thing a group mate mentioned: this cycle’s top was interrupted by 1011, so the top probably isn’t $116K—therefore the bottom also isn’t at $30K.
In my last round, where I bottom-picked at $18K, I used a different carving-on-a-boat method: the top of the previous round is the bottom of this round.
That means the bottom this round is around $69K.
So this round, I started bottom-picking from $69K as well—but this time I’ve gotten smarter.
What I used was: buy on every dip when it keeps falling, and sell Put options to reduce the cost of bottom-picking.
After all, no one can buy at the true bottom unless they’re unbelievably lucky (like I was in the last round).
But having said that, the “black swan” bottom indicator everyone is hoping for now.
Recently, the most discussed “black swan” is MicroStrategy.
Let’s not even mention that after MicroStrategy released a new strategy on June 30, it is basically in a no-fail position (for $STRC, interest is covered, you don’t need to sell pies—unless it’s a bear market and it drops for 2 years).
Even if MicroStrategy really did run into problems, that still wouldn’t be a black swan, because black swans can’t be predicted.
For example, the sudden collapses of FTX and Luna, or the sudden liquidation triggered by 1011.
If it can be predicted, the market will already price it in.
So, no matter where the bottom is—if you have faith in Bitcoin—starting now to manage position size and buy the dips or do DCA is a decent strategy.
If you’re using a bottom-picking strategy, selling Put options is the best way.
Let me mention Deribit here: everyone knows you’re holding an event on July 6, and since you’re the exchange with the best options liquidity, your KYC requirements are simply too hard.
A buddy got stuck on KYC for 5 days, resubmitted the materials 4 times—so exhausting.
The above is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice!
BitHappy in continuous evolution
Using the carving-on-a-boat formula in the chart, this time the bottom at $BTC is around $30K.
It’s also the level that everyone discusses the most and likes the most.
But one thing a group mate mentioned: this cycle’s top was interrupted by 1011, so the top probably isn’t $116K—therefore the bottom also isn’t at $30K.
In my last round, where I bottom-picked at $18K, I used a different carving-on-a-boat method: the top of the previous round is the bottom of this round.
That means the bottom this round is around $69K.
So this round, I started bottom-picking from $69K as well—but this time I’ve gotten smarter.
What I used was: buy on every dip when it keeps falling, and sell Put options to reduce the cost of bottom-picking.
After all, no one can buy at the true bottom unless they’re unbelievably lucky (like I was in the last round).
But having said that, the “black swan” bottom indicator everyone is hoping for now.
Recently, the most discussed “black swan” is MicroStrategy.
Let’s not even mention that after MicroStrategy released a new strategy on June 30, it is basically in a no-fail position (for $STRC, interest is covered, you don’t need to sell pies—unless it’s a bear market and it drops for 2 years).
Even if MicroStrategy really did run into problems, that still wouldn’t be a black swan, because black swans can’t be predicted.
For example, the sudden collapses of FTX and Luna, or the sudden liquidation triggered by 1011.
If it can be predicted, the market will already price it in.
So, no matter where the bottom is—if you have faith in Bitcoin—starting now to manage position size and buy the dips or do DCA is a decent strategy.
If you’re using a bottom-picking strategy, selling Put options is the best way.
Let me mention Deribit here: everyone knows you’re holding an event on July 6, and since you’re the exchange with the best options liquidity, your KYC requirements are simply too hard.
A buddy got stuck on KYC for 5 days, resubmitted the materials 4 times—so exhausting.
The above is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice!
BitHappy in continuous evolution