๐ macro โ the new dominant force
With the Iran war over, macro became the new enemy of $BTC in June. Three data points defined the month ๐
๐ก๏ธ CPI (May): 4.2% YoY โ highest in 3 years, in line but accelerating
๐ญ PPI (May): 6.5% YoY โ highest since Nov 2022, broke all relief
๐ PCE (May): in line โ still well above 2% Fed target
๐ GDP: strong โ economy not weak enough to force Fed cuts
๐ต DXY: gaining strength โ dollar up, pressure on all risk assets
๐จ Rate HIKE probability July: 36% โ conversation shifted from cuts to hikes
The economic paradox of June โ strong GDP with sticky inflation is the worst possible combination for $BTC. The Fed has no reason to cut and every reason to hike. 9 out of 18 Fed members now believe 2% inflation won't be reached until 2028. The macro headwind is structural, not temporary. ๐ง
#dyor #PCE #cpi #GDP
With the Iran war over, macro became the new enemy of $BTC in June. Three data points defined the month ๐
๐ก๏ธ CPI (May): 4.2% YoY โ highest in 3 years, in line but accelerating
๐ญ PPI (May): 6.5% YoY โ highest since Nov 2022, broke all relief
๐ PCE (May): in line โ still well above 2% Fed target
๐ GDP: strong โ economy not weak enough to force Fed cuts
๐ต DXY: gaining strength โ dollar up, pressure on all risk assets
๐จ Rate HIKE probability July: 36% โ conversation shifted from cuts to hikes
The economic paradox of June โ strong GDP with sticky inflation is the worst possible combination for $BTC. The Fed has no reason to cut and every reason to hike. 9 out of 18 Fed members now believe 2% inflation won't be reached until 2028. The macro headwind is structural, not temporary. ๐ง
#dyor #PCE #cpi #GDP