In an analysis published today (January 6, 2026), NewsBTC describes the current week as the "crucial week" for the cryptocurrency market, as several macroeconomic and technical factors converge that may determine the direction of Bitcoin (BTC) and **Ethereum (ETH)** for the coming weeks and months.
### Major macro events of the week (January 6–12, 2026)
1. U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report
- Released on Friday, January 10.
- Expectations: around 160–175 thousand new jobs, with an unemployment rate stable at 4.2%.
- If the number comes in stronger than expected (over 200,000) → reinforces the likelihood of a rate hike or keeping it elevated for longer → negative pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin.
- If it comes in weak (below 120,000) → supports expectations for a rate cut in March/April → a strong potential upward move.
2. Core inflation data (Core CPI)
- To be released with the jobs report or the day before.
- Expectations: slight slowdown in core inflation to 3.2–3.3% annually.
- Any bullish surprise in inflation will strengthen the "hawks" control in the Fed, putting pressure on the markets.
3. Speeches from Federal Reserve members
- Several members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will speak during the week, including some prominent "hawks."
- Any indication of "higher for longer" may cause sharp volatility.
4. ISM manufacturing and services data
- Shows the state of the US economy.
- If it exceeds 50 → positive signal for the economy → pressure on risk assets.
- Below 50 → signal of slowdown → supports Bitcoin as a relatively "safe haven" asset.
### Current technical situation for Bitcoin and Ethereum
- Bitcoin (BTC):
Currently trading above $93,000 after a strong rebound from the $90,000–$91,000 area.
Major resistance: $96,000 – $98,000 (previous strong supply zone).
Critical support: $90,500 – $91,000 (weekly close below may open the door for a drop toward $85,000).
Bullish scenario: breaking above $98,000 with strong volume → target $100,000+ before the end of January.
- Ethereum (ETH):
Shows greater relative strength than Bitcoin in recent days.
Trading above $4,100 with strong support at $4,000.
Next resistance: $4,300 – $4,400.
Breaking above $4,400 could quickly push Ethereum toward $5,000 if sentiment improves.
### Expected scenarios for the week
1. Positive scenario (Bullish)
- Weak/mixed macro data → closer rate cut expectations.
- Bitcoin breaks above $98,000 and Ethereum exceeds $4,400.
- Sharp upward potential toward $100,000+ for Bitcoin and **$4,800–$5,000** for Ethereum.
2. Negative scenario (Bearish)
- Very strong job data + high inflation → delay in rate cuts.
- Rejection of $98,000 for Bitcoin + break below $90,500 → rapid drop toward $85,000–$88,000.
- Ethereum may drop to $3,800–$3,900.
3. Range-bound scenario
- Mixed data → the market remains in the range of $91,000–$98,000 for Bitcoin.
- The most likely scenarios if there are no major surprises.
### Summary
This week (January 6–12, 2026) is considered one of the most important weeks at the beginning of the year for the crypto market, as job and inflation data, along with Fed speeches, will determine the overall direction for the coming months.
Bitcoin and Ethereum are in a sensitive position: above important supports but facing strong resistances.
Traders are waiting for the market's reaction to the official numbers, with very high volatility potential (especially on Friday).
It requires extreme caution, but many see that any macro weakness may spark a strong new upward surge toward new historical levels in 2026.
