The first weeks of 2026 seem to be entering the history books as a period when the rules of the game in the global economy were not just rewritten, but literally crossed out. What analysts call 'Spry January' has become a moment of collision between institutional war, geopolitical bluff, and radical technological nationalism. As the Trump administration moves towards active measures, we observe how the old neoliberal world gives way to the harsh mercantilism of the 21st century.
The Fed under fire: when repair becomes a criminal case. The main shock at the beginning of the year was the unprecedented attack on the independence of the Federal Reserve System. What was once limited to criticism on social media has turned into a full-fledged siege. The Department of Justice has opened a criminal investigation against Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
The reason was the renovation project of the Fed headquarters (the Eccles building), the cost of which increased from 1.9 to 2.5 billion dollars. The official complaint is suspicion of giving false testimony to Congress about the scale of the project. However, Powell himself was extremely candid in his video address: he called it 'political intimidation' caused by the Fed's refusal to lower interest rates at the first request of the White House.
The irony of the situation is that a significant part of the budget overspending is caused by rising steel and equipment prices — a consequence of the very tariffs that the administration implemented. If the Fed succumbs to this legal pressure, the 113-year history of the independence of the US central bank will effectively come to an end, turning the agency into a division of the Treasury.
The battle of Kevins: who will sit in Powell's chair? Against the backdrop of the legal siege of Powell, a drama has unfolded around his successor. The focus is on two Kevins: Hassett and Warsh.
For a long time, Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council and a loyal ally of the president, was considered the favorite. But his position weakened after ambiguous comments on TV, where he effectively supported the criminal investigation against Powell, stating that he was ready to open his letters to investigators.
As a result, leadership in prediction markets has been seized by Kevin Warsh, whose chances have soared to 60-67%. Warsh is a complex figure: he is liked by Republican senators and publicly supports the administration's trade policy, but is known as a 'hawk' who despises inflation. The bond market has already reacted with rising yields as investors suspect that Warsh may not be as inclined to sharply cut rates as the president desires.
The silicon shield for half a trillion dollars. While Washington is busy with seat-sharing, the fate of global technologies is being decided in Taiwan. The signing of the Trade and Investment Agreement between the USA and Taiwan on January 15 was the culmination of the 'America First' strategy.
The essence of the deal is staggering in scale:
Investments: Taiwanese companies will invest 250 billion dollars in chip and AI production in the USA, and the Taiwanese government will provide another 250 billion in the form of loan guarantees.
Tariffs: In return, the USA lowered tariffs on Taiwanese goods to 15% and eliminated them for several critically important sectors, including aviation components and pharmaceuticals.
Taiwan is effectively 'transferring' its industrial ecosystem to American soil. For Washington, this is a matter of national security — the US share in chip production has fallen to critical 10%. For Taiwan, this is a painful but necessary step to maintain strategic partnership in the face of growing threats from China.
Toll road for Nvidia: AI as a source of income. The new administration demonstrates wonders of 'transactional security.' The 25% tariff imposed on advanced AI processors (such as Nvidia H200 and AMD MI325X) seems to be just the tip of the iceberg. The most interesting aspect lies in the deal with Nvidia for exports to China. The government allowed sales of H200 to Beijing, but with the condition: the USA takes 25% of the proceeds as an 'additional charge.' To make this mechanism possible, chips from Taiwan must transit through the USA for 'testing.' This creates a unique situation: the USA simultaneously earns an import tariff and a share of export profits. Beijing is currently responding cautiously, encouraging domestic producers, but the demand for Nvidia technologies remains colossal.
Populism vs. credit cards. The battle for Americans' wallets has shifted to the banking sector. The president proposed to impose a temporary cap on credit card interest rates at 10%. At current rates of 20-30%, this measure could save households about 100 billion dollars a year.
Banks in horror. The ABA and other industry groups warn that such a measure will kill the subprime lending market: people with low credit ratings will simply stop being issued cards. Moreover, analysts predict the end of the 'free goodies' era — cashback and bonus miles that banks have used to offset risks through high interest rates. Nevertheless, for voters in an election year, the slogan of fighting 'bank robbery' looks extremely attractive.
Geopolitical dance: from Iran to Greenland. The world held its breath when oil prices spiked at the beginning of the year due to events in Iran. Protests following the '12-day war' of 2025 and threats of US military intervention made markets nervous. However, on January 14, the White House unexpectedly backed down, stating that 'the violence has stopped' and there would be no strikes. Oil instantly fell by 4%.
Alongside this, the Arctic vector has acquired economic specificity. The idea of 'buying Greenland' has transformed into a struggle for resources. The discovery of rare earth metal deposits (gallium and hafnium) at the Tanbreez project has made the island key to the independence of the US defense sector from China. Instead of annexation, a 'New Deal for Greenland' is now being discussed — economic guardianship in exchange for exclusive access to minerals.
Economic blindness: when data turns into noise. The main problem for investors today is the lack of quality information. The longest government shutdown in US history, lasting 43 days and ending in November, left huge 'gaps' in official statistics.
Economists refer to this state as 'dead reckoning', navigation by memory. Data on inflation and employment is distorted, giving the Fed a great reason not to change rates at the January meeting. The labor market is experiencing a strange calm: companies are hiring little, but also firing little, preferring to wait out the fog of uncertainty.
Conclusion: equilibrium through chaos. America in January 2026 is a country where economic policy has become an extension of the election rally. We see a relatively successful (albeit expensive) process of bringing technology back to the USA, but this comes at the cost of institutional chaos and rising political risks. In this new world of 'Vigorous January,' confidence is a luxury, and flexibility becomes the only way to survive.