The relative performance of Bitcoin (BTC) against gold has weakened significantly, but several analysts argue that this setup remains a long-term investment opportunity for BTC.
Key points:
The Bitcoin-gold ratio has fallen to 18.5 ounces per BTC, its lowest since November 2023.
Analysts say that these rare 'asymmetric setups' often precede capital rotations back into Bitcoin.
One-day BTC/Gold chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The Bitcoin-gold ratio measures how many ounces of gold are needed to buy one Bitcoin. The ratio fell to about 18.5 on Wednesday, hitting its lowest value since November 2023. The movement reflects gold rising to new all-time highs of $4,888, while Bitcoin struggles to stay above $90,000.
Gold price projections based on 100 years of market. Source: Charles Edwards/X
The founder of Capriole Investments, Charles Edwards, highlighted the scale of gold's movement, noting that 100 years of gold bull markets averaged over 150% gains. If this pattern repeats, gold prices could rise well above current levels to around $12,000 in 3 to 10 years, extending short-term pressure on the BTC/gold ratio.
However, crypto analyst Decode suggested that the BTC/gold pair may be showing signs of trend exhaustion. With the help of Elliott wave theory, Decode described the relationship as entering the fifth wave of a corrective wave C, a structure that typically marks the final phase of a bear trend.
In simple terms, this implies that the bear moment may be closer to completion than continuation, even as investor sentiment becomes a bit more negative.
Analysis of the weekly BTC/Gold chart via Elliott Wave Theory. Source: Decode/X
Related: The Bitcoin-gold ratio dropped 50% in 2025: Here's why
"The definitive trade here is Bitcoin," says the Bitwise analyst.
The head of research at Bitwise in Europe, André Dragosch, framed the movement as a macroeconomic contrarian signal. Earlier this week, the analyst said that Bitcoin was trading at a significant discount to gold, considering such conditions 'very rare' and suggesting that a shift in capital flows could occur in the first quarter of 2026.
BTC/Gold liquidity relative value based on global money supply. Source: Bitwise
In a post on X on Wednesday, Dragosch emphasized that the rise in gold is linked to a larger structural shift in the global monetary system, echoing concerns raised by Ray Dalio. As countries reduce their reliance on sovereign bonds and increase exposure to tangible assets, gold benefited first.
Dragosch argued that capital tends to rotate sequentially. Gold attracted capital flows first, while Bitcoin 'did not receive a serious proposal due to its perceived higher risk.' In this context, gold's strength may ultimately act as a tailwind rather than a headwind for the next phase of Bitcoin price expansion.
Related: Bitcoin sharks accumulate BTC as if it were 2013, despite the 'perfect bull trap'