暴富锦李

Bitcoin has officially broken $72,000, and with this drop, the bear market is considered established.

Zacks' chief strategist John Blank has spoken, noting the trend of high points and low points gradually moving downward, suggesting a high probability of further declines, potentially even touching $40,000—it's worth noting that the previous peak was $125,000, and if it truly drops to $40,000, the decline would be quite alarming.

He also mentioned that Bitcoin's historical bear markets typically last about 12 to 18 months. At this rate, a drop to $40,000 in the next 6 to 8 months is not impossible.

The market currently has very little liquidity, new money is hesitant to enter, and with large institutions possibly unable to withstand the pressure and looking to sell, this decline is likely to be exacerbated.

#BTC #BTC走势分析

2.5 Market Hotspots Overview:

1. BTC is still hitting new lows, the 70k threshold looks precarious, and support has basically been broken. Next, keep an eye on 69k, and don't act rashly; it's best to observe for now.
2. ETH also shows no signs of rebound; the critical level has been broken and not recovered. Either short with the trend or wait for a new bullish structure to emerge before deciding.
3. The ADP non-farm report came in unexpectedly weak, with only 22,000 jobs added in January, far below expectations, and last month's data was revised downwards.
4. Vitalik has sold nearly 3000 ETH in the past 3 days, approximately 6.22 million dollars.
5. CME Federal Reserve Watch: 90.1% probability of maintaining interest rates in March.

#BTC #ETH

Elon Musk's net worth has reached 852 billion USD, which is approximately 6 trillion RMB. This number is truly shocking.

Using a cash counting machine, if you count 1000 hundred-yuan bills per minute, it would take 16.5 hours to count to 100 million. To count his 6 trillion, it would take a continuous 990,000 hours, which is about 40,000 days.

A person only lives about 30,000 days in a lifetime. With that amount of money, not only can you not spend it all, you can't even count it all. You would really need a whole army of cash counting machines to keep up.

#BTC #ETH

In the previous rounds, the bull market fell into a bear market, with the maximum decline exceeding 70%

2025 bull market BTC high point at 126,000 USD

A drop of 30%, dropping to: 8,200 USD (already fallen)✔

A drop of 40%, dropping to: 75,600 USD (already fallen)✔

A drop of 50%, dropping to: 63,000 USD (not yet reached)

A drop of 60%, dropping to: 50,400 USD (not yet reached)

Breaking 70%, dropping to: 37,800 USD (not yet reached)

If we still follow the historical cycle, it is very likely to drop by 60%

At that time, it would have already reached 50,000 USD

If the cycle continues, dropping 60%, then rising back, and breaking through 100,000,

200,000 USD is also very possible

#BTC #ETH

Next week's volatility warning⚠️！
PCE + terrible Davos debut, multiple "macro bombs💣" are set to go off!
1️⃣​Monday (January 19): U.S. stock market closed & terrible Davos debut
Martin Luther King Jr. Day: U.S. stock market closed all day, be aware that liquidity may decrease, beware of short-term spikes.
Davos Forum: Terrible Davos will lead a delegation to attend, closely monitor his statements at the World Economic Forum, any comments on trade or currency may trigger market turbulence.
2️⃣Thursday (January 22): Super data day (four arrows launched simultaneously) Around 21:30, the four key indicators most important to the U.S. Federal Reserve will be released simultaneously:
November Core PCE: The key factor determining whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, targeting 2%.
Q3 GDP Total Value: Directly reflects the level of the U.S. economy.
Personal Consumption Expenditures: The core driving force to observe inflation trends.
Initial Jobless Claims: A barometer of the employment market.
3️⃣Friday (January 23): Bank of Japan + U.S. Consumer Confidence
Morning: Japan releases Core CPI; if inflation is too high, expectations for a rate hike in Japan will be favorable for the yen and unfavorable for the dollar.
Noon: Bank of Japan interest rate decision, although unlikely to raise rates, the central bank governor's speech could be very impactful.
Evening: S&P PMI, consumer confidence, and inflation expectations, observe whether the data deviates significantly from expectations.

#BTC #ETH

Since you entered the cryptocurrency world, how long has it been since you treated yourself well?

In life, you are frugal, but in contracts, you spend money like water.
You always say you'll leave once you break even, but you end up getting deeper and deeper.
You are more anxious than reporters when Powell holds a meeting and faster than the media when Trump tweets.
Repeatedly topping up, staying up late to hold positions, enduring countless days and nights.
Unknowingly, you've aged, and the money is gone.

#BTC #ETH

The two-token market is experiencing a cliff-like decline, and Yi Lihua, once a staunch bull, is now forced into the role of the 'passive short king'! Previously shouting 'institutions are entering, ETH won't drop', but now they are trapped in a vicious cycle of selling coins and reducing leverage— the more they cut losses, the greater the selling pressure, and the more prices drop, the more they have to passively reduce positions. The holdings of their Trend Research are facing a floating loss of nearly $600 million.

On-chain data shows that their core ETH lending position's liquidation price is stuck in the $1781-$1808 range, with multiple large collateral positions just a step away from liquidation; once it starts to drop, liquidation will happen quickly. One can imagine that the first thing Boss Yi does upon waking up is to urgently check the two-token price, fearing that their position will be liquidated after a night's sleep.

Many people in the market have long been prepared to 'pick up the corpses', as once these whale positions are liquidated and trigger a cascade, the two-token market may hit a true bottom. Ultimately, there is nothing wrong with being bullish, but with high leverage, it has turned the market into a life-and-death gamble.

#ETH $ETH

The situation with Yi Lihua is tough.

Right now, borrowing on Aave is 793 million, with 533,000 ETH pledged, and the liquidation price is $1,792. It seems there's quite a distance from the current price of $2,320, but the safety net is as thin as a piece of paper.

He is now in a death loop: the more he cuts losses and reduces leverage, the greater the selling pressure, causing ETH to drop further. After falling, he has to keep cutting; if he doesn't, he will face liquidation. Purely holding on is basically a dead end.

The advice from the group is indeed practical:

1. Don't try to save the Aave position by force; withdraw a maximum of 120,000 ETH—this is the limit. After withdrawing, the liquidation price will be $2,313, just barely avoiding liquidation at the current price.
2. Use these 120,000 ETH to open a low-leverage short position, setting the liquidation price above 5,000, and avoid making the mistake of high leverage again.
3. Let the remaining 410,000 ETH be liquidated; this wave of selling pressure will definitely push ETH down to around 1,800. Wait until the liquidation is almost over, close the short position, and use the profits to buy ETH spot at the bottom.

With this approach, he can preserve 180,000 ETH, which is about 60% of the original capital. It's not a full recovery, but at least it's not zero, leaving a path for a comeback.

It sounds easy, but actually taking action is incredibly difficult; however, it's still better than just waiting for liquidation.

#ETH $ETH

The cryptocurrency community should really applaud MicroStrategy; this statement is absolutely true.

During the time when the market was plunging, the entire community was filled with FUD noise, with many criticizing the industry and mocking MicroStrategy. But what did MicroStrategy do? They completely ignored these voices, did not come out to shout slogans, and just focused on their own pace—investing when necessary, increasing their positions when needed, and holding onto their purchases without much fuss.

This is what a true holder looks like! When the market is good, no one cares about your coin holdings; it's even taken for granted. But during a bear market filled with cries of despair, this unwavering commitment to buying and holding provides a significant boost to the entire industry, truly a timely help in difficult times. This level of composure and vision is genuinely admirable.

MicroStrategy is a positive force in the cryptocurrency space, genuinely pushing the industry forward. So I sincerely advise, don’t chase after traffic by randomly FUDing them. Remember, if MicroStrategy truly can't withstand the pressure and faces problems, no one in this circle will come out unscathed; our little holdings and confidence will only become more anxious.

#BTC #ETH

Many people haven't figured it out:
The rise in gold prices is essentially not to make you rich,
but to solve the debt issue.

Suppose I owe you 1 million,
and now I can't pay in cash, what to do?

No problem,
I have the pricing power of gold.

I inflate the price of gold to 1 million per gram.
At this point, the gold in your hand
has also turned into a book value of 1 million.

Well, now it’s simple:
I give you 1 gram of gold,
and we—are square.

The debt is resolved,
the system is stabilized.

Once my debt issue is handled,
credit is restored,
liquidity comes back,
I will then crash the gold price back to 10 dollars per gram.

At this time, the gold in your hand,
its book value is only 10 dollars.

And what about me?
I will then use 10 dollars,
to buy back that 1 gram of gold from you.

What’s the result?
My debt: gone
My gold: back
Your asset: has completed a "legal shrinkage"

The entire process,
no default,
no robbery,
even seems quite fair.

The only problem is:
You think the rise in gold is saving you,
but in fact, it is liquidating you.

The real winner,
is never the "holder of assets",
but rather
the one with pricing power.

If you can't understand this,
every asset boom you see,
could just be a prelude to the next harvest.

#黄金白银反弹 #黄金

In this round of the crash, Ethereum is indeed weak to the eye, definitely leading the decline, while Bitcoin, although it has also fallen, the extent is still within reason, not so surprising.

Now the market has finally welcomed a mild rebound. To put it simply, the previous panic emotions have slowly dissipated, coupled with some funds starting to enter the market to buy at the bottom, the buying pressure has slightly supported the scene. But to say how strong this rebound is? It's really not strong; it still looks a bit soft, lacking solid strength.

Today, the key is to focus on two thresholds—Bitcoin's 78,000 and Ethereum's 2,300. If it can firmly stand above these two positions, then the short-term bottom is most likely stabilized. The next first step, of course, is to charge towards a higher place, with Bitcoin first looking at 80,000 to 81,000, and Ethereum aiming for 2,500. Whether it can break through depends on whether this wave of rebound can gather enough strength.

#BTC #ETH

This wave of the bull market can actually be broken down into three clear stages, without any complicated twists and turns, all reflecting the most authentic rhythm of the market.

The first stage is Bitcoin's solo performance, soaring fiercely as if it has been boosted, charging towards the peak. During this time, other altcoins hardly have any roles, at most benefiting from Bitcoin's rise, slowly gaining traction behind it, completely in the posture of "the big brother leading the little brother." Not only is Bitcoin soaring, but it also ignites the entire Bitcoin ecosystem projects. Those who have witnessed this strength can only say "impressive," filled with a sense of awe that cannot be underestimated.

Once Bitcoin has risen enough to catch its breath, the second stage comes with Ethereum taking the lead. When ETH gains momentum, it directly enters a frenzy mode, instantly surpassing the previous Bitcoin hype. Following Ethereum's rhythm, various trending altcoins also begin to collectively explode, surging upward as if energized. Technologies like AI, Web3, L2, application scenarios like chain games and the metaverse, as well as new public chains and projects extending from the Bitcoin ecosystem, all fiercely compete, putting on a show of rising prices. The market is bustling at this time, with many diverse sectors; looking at the sea of red, it can truly dazzle one’s eyes, evoking excitement and a bit of confusion.

By the third stage, there are no distinctions between main and secondary; all cryptocurrencies behave like untamed wild horses, soaring without limits. MEME coins completely seize their moment to shine, and various unheard of dog coins fly everywhere, with some doubling today and others skyrocketing tomorrow. FOMO emotions are at an all-time high, and the market is filled with the frenzy of "fear of missing out." At this time, whether old players or new investors, everyone's heart races, all eyes are on the lure of profits, and people are immersed in this reckless bull market atmosphere.

In the end, as long as there are no sudden black swan events, Bitcoin will not drop significantly even if it falls, and it is likely to just consolidate and grind. But for altcoins, this is the best opportunity! Hold on tight to the low-priced chips in hand; don’t let go easily. Whether you are waiting to enter with no holdings or already have considerable positions, every market drop is a great time to pick up bargains, so don’t miss out unnecessarily.

#BTC #ETH

The truly wealthy often have some counterintuitive commonalities.

The "kindness, diligence, and integrity" you believe in,
are the poison they use to numb you.

Their counterintuitive commonalities are:
1. Extremely selfish
Their "altruism" is always a tool to maximize "self-interest."
They don’t care about you; they only care about your value.
All the heartwarming business stories,
are underpinned by cold calculations.

2. Disdain for rules
Rules are traps set for the mediocre.
They do not "follow" the rules,
but rather "exploit" the loopholes of the rules,
or even directly participate in formulating the rules.
While you are still waiting in line at a red light,
they have already bought up this street.

3. Emotionally stable to a terrifying degree
Making a lot of money is not about passion; it's about calm.
They will not be morally shackled by you,
nor will they be affected by the market's short-term fluctuations.
They execute plans like machines,
without the "conscience pangs" that are such a basic mistake.

While you are still trying to move yourself with a poor person's mindset,
they are already using a rich person's logic to harvest the world.

Stop asking how they succeeded,
you can't afford that answer.

If you really must ask,
ask Brother Sun!

#BTC #ETH

Monday's market is a sight to behold! The three major indices fell over 2%, with more than a hundred stocks hitting the limit down, and only a few sectors managed to resist the decline.
There’s no need to say much about today’s market; everyone has seen it. The entire market has been on a downward trend without any resistance, a typical broad-based sell-off, resulting in zero profit effect. Only a few sectors barely managed to resist the decline:

At the close, all three major indices fell over 2%, with total transaction volume in the two markets at 2.58 trillion, a decrease of 8.8% compared to last Friday. While funds are fleeing in panic, there’s also a clear wait-and-see attitude. The trading volume hasn’t spiked significantly, confirming that it’s not a systemic exit; more than 4,500 stocks fell, with limit-up and limit-down stocks at 44:123. The number of limit-down stocks has exceeded 100 for the first time, and short-term sentiment has dropped to a recent low, with high-priced stocks and trending stocks suffering a collective sharp drop.

The situation in the sectors is even worse. Only the smart grid sector can be considered a rare exception to the decline, with Shun Sodium Co. hitting the limit up with large orders, and Sanbian Technology and others making their first board. The heavyweight China Xi’an Electric fell back after hitting the board, barely maintaining some local profit effect; other sectors are all in decline, with non-ferrous metals continuing to plummet. Stocks like Silver Nonferrous and Sichuan Gold have hit the limit down, and the sector shows no signs of rebound. The technology sector is also fully differentiated, with AI hardware Tongding Hualian and computing power Litong Electronics barely holding their boards, while Changfei Fiber and New Yisheng, along with Zhongji Xuchuang, suffered significant losses. The AI application side, Zhejiang Wen Hualian, also exploded and fell back, while in commercial aerospace, only Zhongchao Holdings managed to hit the limit up alone. The chemical, robotics, liquor, and consumer sectors are all in weak rotation, unable to withstand the market’s selling atmosphere.

#BTC #ETH

This week, significant macro events and data are relatively few, with potential market disturbances including the summary of the Bank of Japan's January monetary policy meeting and U.S. non-farm data, as follows:

Monday:
U.S. January S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final value, U.S. January ISM Manufacturing PMI;
The Bank of Japan releases a summary of opinions from the January monetary policy meeting review committee.

Tuesday:
U.S. December JOLTs job openings; 2027 FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks;
Federal Reserve Governor Bowman speaks.

Wednesday:
U.S. API and EIA crude oil inventory data for the week ending January 30; France, Germany, Eurozone, UK January Services PMI final values;
Eurozone January CPI year-on-year preliminary value, Eurozone January CPI month-on-month preliminary value, Eurozone December PPI month-on-month;
U.S. January ADP employment change, U.S. January S&P Global Services PMI final value, U.S. January ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.

Thursday:
U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending January 31, U.S. January Global Supply Chain Pressure Index;
2027 FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic participates in a dialogue and Q&A session regarding monetary policy.

Friday:
U.S. January unemployment rate, U.S. January seasonally adjusted non-farm employment change;
U.S. January non-farm employment benchmark revision final value (not seasonally adjusted);
U.S. February one-year inflation expectation preliminary value;
U.S. February University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary value.

#BTC #ETH

The fatal hidden danger of Bitcoin lies in MicroStrategy's balance sheet.

Holding 712,600 BTC with an average holding price of $76,037, it once achieved fame through the capital flywheel of "issuing stocks/bonds to buy coins," but now it is forced to the brink of a death spiral by the plummeting coin prices.

With the coin price dropping below the cost line, the foundation of financing collapses first—premium issuance and low-interest bond issuance routes are completely blocked, and the coin-buying perpetual motion machine has come to a complete stop.

Even more fatal is the looming sword of Damocles: once the debt pressure forces a sale of even a thousand BTC, the market will instantly panic, retail investors will flee, institutions will dump, and the plummeting coin prices will trigger more liquidations, further dragging MicroStrategy down.

The $1.44 billion cash reserve is only enough to last for 21 months; either BTC rebounds to save the day, or the bear market locks in a collapse.

This gamble has no middle option.

#BTC #ETH

Last night, Bitcoin fell below the $76,000 mark, currently priced at $78,830 per coin, reaching the lowest level since April 2025. Ethereum, SOL, Dogecoin, and others fell over 10%.

According to CoinGlass, in the last 24 hours, over 410,000 people worldwide have been liquidated, with a liquidation amount reaching $2.529 billion (approximately 17.58 billion yuan).

According to CoinGecko, in the past 24 hours, the sell-off has caused the total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market to evaporate by approximately $111 billion (approximately 771.6 billion yuan).

#BTC #ETH

In the next 3-6 months, the crypto world is likely to blow through the ceiling—this isn't just a market trend; it's clearly a money-printing machine running at full throttle, and when it goes crazy, it can leave people dumbfounded!

BTC is definitely the main player leading the charge; the historical high is merely a thin layer of paper that can be easily broken; ETH will follow closely to catch up and will definitely not be modest, with an increase that is absolutely substantial. Once the big leader stands firm, hundreds of billions of dollars in hot money will flow into mid and small-cap altcoins, and at that time, quality targets won't just rise a little; a 10-fold increase will be considered just the beginning, and hundred-fold myths will only be more numerous than the last round.

Don't think it's exaggerated; the total market cap target is directly locked at $8-10 trillion! The last round's bull market peak was only $2.7 trillion, and it could create a bunch of wealth myths; now that the scale has multiplied several times, the opportunities will only be crazier.

But remember, when the market just starts to heat up, the main players will definitely stir things up—repeated fluctuations and wash trading are just to shake off the impatient retail investors. Don't loosen your grip on the quality chips in hand; don't be scared by a little volatility. True big gains have always required extreme patience.

The signal for altcoin season is already flashing, and the only prerequisite for all of this is: BTC must firmly stay at a high of $150,000-$200,000. This wave of market movement is inevitable; just prepare your chips and wait to reap the rewards!

#BTC #ETH