奔跑财经-FinaceRun

CEX Bitcoin balance continues to decline: Approximately 300,000 coins reduced in the past year, with a clear trend of investors holding long-term.

According to data from CryptoQuant, the Bitcoin balance in centralized exchanges (CEX) has continued to decline over the past year, with a total reduction of nearly 300,000 coins. As of now, there are still about 2.71 million Bitcoins stored in various CEXs.

Analysts believe this trend reflects that an increasing number of investors are choosing to withdraw Bitcoin from trading platforms to personal wallets, rather than leaving it on the platform waiting for trading or reinvestment into the market.

This "withdrawal from the market" holding strategy is quietly changing the stock level of Bitcoin on exchanges, which is expected to have a profound impact on the overall ecological landscape of the crypto market.

From a market impact perspective, the continued decline in CEX Bitcoin balances means that the liquidity supply available for trading is decreasing. In the case of unchanged or rising demand, this supply contraction may provide support for prices.

More importantly, this shift from trading platforms to personal wallets is often seen as an important signal of increased market confidence, and also indicates that investors have a strong optimism about the long-term value of Bitcoin.

Overall, the net outflow of approximately 300,000 Bitcoins in the past year is not only a change in stock data, indicating that investors are shifting from short-term trading to long-term value storage, but also suggests that the market's valuation system for Bitcoin's future value is being reconstructed.

#比特币储备

The "understanding king" (Trump) made a strong statement yesterday, and today announced a ceasefire. Could it be that he is secretly taking long positions?

Trump's (the "understanding king") style is unpredictable, and the public has always found it difficult to decipher his true intentions. Yesterday, he spoke fiercely, claiming to take a hard line against Iran, appearing ready to engage in a major confrontation with Iran;

However, today news emerged that he wants to reach a ceasefire agreement. This sudden shift is indeed surprising, and it's no wonder everyone speculates whether he is secretly positioning himself to profit from the volatile market.

In this changing situation, the price of Bitcoin quickly rose to $72,000 (72K). However, the implied volatility (IV) of major expiration options in the options market is still declining, even the IV of options expiring this week has decreased.

Moreover, although the market is stimulated by the rise in Bitcoin prices, the negative skew of the Skew indicator is decreasing. At the same time, due to the rise in realized volatility (RV), the premium for realized volatility (VRP), which rebounded significantly yesterday, has once again fallen.

Considering these main indicators of options, the rebound of Bitcoin price breaking through $70,000 (70K) has indeed significantly boosted market confidence;

However, this boost is more due to the alleviation of the risk of a Bitcoin crash caused by similar black swan events (sudden major unexpected events) that the market previously worried about, rather than indicating that the trend of rising Bitcoin market prices will continue.

In conclusion, regardless of Trump's true motives, this series of actions reminds us once again that politics and the financial market are closely related, and any actions of political figures may become the "initiator" of market storms.

As investors, we need to remain vigilant in this complex and changing environment and make more cautious decisions to protect our assets from losses.

#特朗普 #加密市场

The US-Iran ceasefire has caused a divergence in market trends: oil prices plummeted by 20%, while Bitcoin and gold saw significant gains.

After the US and Iran reached a two-week ceasefire agreement, global financial markets reacted in stark contrast. Crude oil prices temporarily plummeted by about 20%, while most assets, including Bitcoin, gold, and US stock futures, surged significantly.

Affected by the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East, crude oil prices experienced severe fluctuations following the outbreak of the conflict. At the beginning of the conflict on February 28, US oil prices (USOIL) were still below $70 per barrel, but within a week soared to $120, further exacerbated by various statements and infrastructure attacks that intensified oil price volatility.

Over the weekend and into early this week, Trump issued new threats to Iran, including plans to attack the country's power plants and bridges, pushing oil prices to surge again.

Meanwhile, Trump's statement on Tuesday local time that "tonight a civilization will perish" was particularly concerning, leading Iran to withdraw from negotiations at that time.

However, hours later, Trump announced on his social media platform that both sides had agreed to a two-week ceasefire, and Iran would safely open the Strait of Hormuz. He added that the US received Iran's 10-point proposal, which they believe "is a viable basis for negotiation."

Trump then explained that the US would help resolve the congestion issue in the Strait of Hormuz, as this move would bring substantial profits. Additionally, he boldly predicted that this series of actions would usher in a "golden age for the Middle East."

Following the announcement of the ceasefire, crude oil prices immediately plummeted. US oil prices (USOIL) fell from $117 per barrel to below $92. Although as of the time of writing, oil prices have rebounded to $96, they are still over 40% higher than before the conflict erupted.

In contrast to the dismal performance of the oil market, assets such as Bitcoin, gold, and stocks generally rose. The price of Bitcoin soared from just over $68,000 to nearly $73,000, a three-week high, before retreating to around $71,700.

As of now, Ethereum is up nearly 7%, approaching $2,250; altcoins such as XRP, Solana, and DOGE have also recorded increases of over 4%.

Gold prices have also approached $4,900 for the first time in three weeks. Additionally, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices have experienced varying degrees of increase.

#BTC

On Tuesday, the total net outflow of the U.S. BTC and ETH spot ETFs reached 224 million USD.

On April 8, according to the latest data from SoSovalue, the U.S. BTC spot ETF recorded a total net outflow of 159 million USD yesterday, marking the first day of net outflow this week;

Among them, Fidelity FBTC, Grayscale GBTC, and Ark&21Shares ARKB recorded single-day net outflows of 47.85 million USD (697.33 BTC), 41.89 million USD (610.53 BTC), and 34.15 million USD (497.75 BTC), respectively;

Next, VanEck HODL and BlackRock IBIT recorded single-day net outflows of 20.37 million USD (296.95 BTC) and 17.11 million USD (249.38 BTC), respectively;

It is worth noting that Valkyrie BRRR had a single-day net inflow of 2.32 million USD (33.85 BTC), becoming the only BTC ETF with a net inflow yesterday;

As of now, the total net asset value of the Bitcoin spot ETF is 88.71 billion USD, accounting for 6.39% of the total market value of Bitcoin, with a cumulative total net inflow of 56.27 billion USD.

On the same day, the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF recorded a net outflow of 64.67 million USD, also marking the first day of net outflow this week; and there was not a single ETH ETF with a net inflow on that day;

Among them, Fidelity FETH had the largest net outflow of 48.21 million USD (approximately 23,000 ETH) yesterday, with a cumulative total net inflow of 2.28 billion USD;

Next, BlackRock ETHA had a single-day net outflow of 16.46 million USD (approximately 7,850 ETH), with a cumulative total net inflow of 11.61 billion USD;

As of now, the total net asset value of the Ethereum spot ETF is 11.98 billion USD, accounting for 4.69% of the total market value of Ethereum, with a cumulative total net inflow of 11.54 billion USD.

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF

The SEC's 2025 Enforcement Report has been released, acknowledging that past cryptocurrency enforcement actions were not beneficial to investors.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently admitted that some of the previous enforcement actions taken against cryptocurrency companies lacked clear investor benefits and misinterpreted federal securities laws.

According to the SEC's 2025 Enforcement Report, since the 2022 fiscal year, the agency has initiated 95 lawsuits for "bookkeeping violations," imposing a total of $2.3 billion in fines.

However, the SEC acknowledged that in the 13 relevant cryptocurrency cases that were penalized, there was "no direct harm to investors, nor did it protect the interests of living investors."

It is worth noting that although former SEC Chair Gary Gensler was criticized for implementing a strategy of "enforcement over regulation" in the cryptocurrency industry, since Paul Atkins took over as chair in April 2025, the SEC has adopted a more favorable regulatory stance towards digital assets.

The SEC pointed out in the report that the enforcement department previously focused too much on the number of cases, leading to misallocation of resources and erroneous legal interpretations. Particularly, before Trump's inauguration in 2025, the SEC hastily filed lawsuits and aggressively promoted various new legal theories.

Currently, the SEC is shifting its focus from quantity to quality, prioritizing cases that truly protect investors. Atkins stated that the agency will concentrate resources on violations that cause the most harm, such as fraud and market manipulation, rather than merely pursuing quantity and fines.

According to a data report from consulting firm Cornerstone Research, under Atkins' leadership, the number of enforcement actions against publicly traded companies, including cryptocurrency firms, decreased by approximately 30% in the 2025 fiscal year compared to the 2024 fiscal year.

Overall, the SEC's enforcement actions in 2025 clarified the shortcomings of past enforcement behaviors and related penalties, and reestablished the definitions and measurement standards of enforcement effectiveness, with the core no longer being the number of cases or the scale of fines, but whether it truly prevented harm to investors.

#SEC

The U.S. Department of Justice Rejects Tornado Cash Developer's Motion to Dismiss

On April 8, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) formally rejected the latest motion to dismiss filed by Tornado Cash developer Roman Storm regarding the recent criminal charges.

The case began in 2023 when Storm was prosecuted for operating the mixing service Tornado Cash. This mixing service can obscure blockchain transaction records, and prosecutors allege that Storm knowingly allowed the platform to be used for money laundering without taking any intervention measures.

As early as last year, a Manhattan jury found him guilty of operating an illegal money transmission business, but they failed to reach a unanimous verdict on the charges of money laundering and sanctions violations. The DOJ is now preparing for a retrial on the remaining charges.

Notably, just last month, the U.S. Supreme Court issued a unanimous ruling in a music copyright case that major internet service provider Cox is not liable for users' illegal actions. This ruling seemed to give Storm's legal team some hope for a turnaround.

Storm is questioning the legality of the Treasury Department's sanctions against Tornado Cash based on the Supreme Court's ruling in the Cox case, arguing that the criminal charges against him should be invalidated.

However, the DOJ clearly pointed out in its latest response that the Supreme Court's ruling only concerns specific administrative procedural issues and has no direct relation to the criminal determination of operator responsibility in Storm's case.

Prosecutors also claimed that there is no evidence to prove that a cryptocurrency privacy service like Tornado Cash has substantial or commercial non-criminal applications, which directly undermines the defense's basis for the argument of "legitimate use."

In summary, this case reflects the conflicting stance of the Trump administration in supporting cryptocurrencies while continuing to prosecute crypto developers. The Storm team hopes to use the Supreme Court ruling as a basis for defense, but the DOJ has indicated that it will continue to pursue the prosecution.

Currently, the date for Storm's retrial has not been finalized. If convicted, he could face decades in prison. This case is also seen as a key test of how the U.S. judicial system handles the legal responsibilities of decentralized protocol developers.

#RomanStorm案

CZ's autobiography "Freedom of Money" is officially released worldwide, documenting the legendary journey from a rural boy to a crypto giant.

On April 8, Binance co-founder CZ (Zhao Changpeng) announced on social media that his autobiography "Freedom of Money" was officially released worldwide on April 8.

The book is first available in English and Traditional Chinese e-book versions, with the Kindle edition priced at $9.99, and the English physical book released simultaneously. Other language versions are expected to be launched in the coming months.

The full title of the book is "Freedom of Money: A Memoir of Protecting Users, Resilience, and the Founding of Binance," covering CZ's complete life journey from a rural childhood in China to establishing the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange.

The book details his trajectory from Canadian immigrant, working on high-frequency trading systems at Bloomberg Tradebook and the Tokyo Stock Exchange, entering the cryptocurrency field in 2013, and founding Binance in 2017.

Notably, CZ candidly addresses the 2023 U.S. Department of Justice case in the book, including admitting to violations of the Bank Secrecy Act, the $4.3 billion fine paid by Binance, his personal $150 million fine, and a four-month federal prison experience.

It is revealed that most of the content of this memoir was completed during his time in prison. Additionally, the book covers the collapse of FTX and Sam Bankman-Fried, as well as the high-risk decisions, geopolitical pressures, and talent challenges faced by Binance during its rapid development.

It is reported that all proceeds from this book will be donated to charity and not used for personal profit, a commitment consistent with CZ's previous statements on social media.

The book is self-published by the Freedom of Money Foundation, and its Chinese title "币安人生" comes from a meme coin name created by a user.

CZ stated that this community-driven name aligns with the personal narrative style of the book, but he also emphasized that the book itself has no official connection to the digital token.

In terms of commercial performance, this book ranked first in the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency e-book categories on Amazon even before its official release, showing the high level of attention from the market and community.

CZ previously disclosed that he may offer signed copies to early buyers to enhance direct interaction with readers.

#CZ自传

Trump agrees to a two-week ceasefire, provided that the Strait of Hormuz is reopened

On the evening of April 7 local time, U.S. President Trump announced that he had agreed to pause bombing and military strikes against Iran for a duration of two weeks.

This decision was made after communication with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief General Asim Munir. Trump stated in a declaration that the Pakistani side had requested him to postpone the “devastating strike” originally scheduled for that evening.

According to Trump, the precondition for this pause in military action is that Iran must “completely, immediately, and safely reopen the Strait of Hormuz,” which he referred to as a “bilateral ceasefire agreement.”

Trump explained that he agreed to pause the attacks because the U.S. side had “achieved and exceeded all military objectives,” and that negotiations with Iran regarding a long-term peace agreement had “made very deep progress.”

He also revealed that the U.S. side received a “10-point proposal” from Iran and believes this to be a “feasible basis for negotiation.” Almost all of the “previous contentious points” have reached consensus, and the next two weeks will be used to finalize and officially sign the agreement.

In his statement, Trump, in his capacity as U.S. President, expressed that it is his honor to represent the countries in the Middle East and witness this “long-standing issue nearing resolution.”

FOX News subsequently confirmed this news in a breaking report, adding that Trump stated he would not disclose any specific details of the agreement.

#美伊停火两周

Last week, the digital asset fund welcomed a net inflow of $224 million, with XRP leading the market.

According to CoinShares weekly report data, the global sentiment in the digital asset investment product market saw a slight rebound, recording a total inflow of $224 million last week;

However, influenced by better-than-expected retail sales data, rising hawkish expectations among investors, and mixed geopolitical signals, this positive momentum could not be sustained, resulting in a slight outflow of funds in the latter half of last week.

In terms of country/region distribution, Switzerland became the center for inflows last week, with a net inflow of up to $157.5 million, ranking first globally;

This was followed by Germany and Canada, which saw inflows of $27.7 million and $11.2 million respectively in a single week. Notably, the U.S. market remained relatively calm, with just $27.5 million in inflows last week, placing it third.

In terms of asset classes, XRP led with an inflow of $119.6 million, becoming the biggest winner last week and setting a new high since mid-December 2025. Its year-to-date inflow also reached $159 million, accounting for nearly 7% of the assets under management.

At the same time, Solana also welcomed a net inflow of $34.9 million in a single week, and the inflow trend for this asset has remained relatively stable this year, accounting for 10% of its assets under management.

Although Bitcoin recorded a total inflow of $107.3 million last week, its fund flows this month have still been in a state of outflow, with a cumulative net outflow of $145 million.

Additionally, investment products that short Bitcoin recorded an inflow of $16 million last week, setting a new weekly inflow high since mid-November 2025, further reflecting the market's diverging trends.

In stark contrast is Ethereum, which continues to lag behind. Last week, Ethereum saw an outflow of $52.8 million, mainly due to investors digesting the negative news brought about by the Clarity Act.

Ethereum has continued to show weakness, with a net outflow of $52.8 million last week. Analysts believe this is primarily due to investors still digesting the negative news from the Clarity Act.

In conclusion, the divergence of assets and regions in this digital asset market is mainly driven by the strengthening of macroeconomic data and rising hawkish expectations among investors, and this divergence trend may continue in the short term.

#投资趋势

Strategy paused for two weeks before restarting Bitcoin accumulation, investing approximately $330 million to purchase 4,871 Bitcoins

The Bitcoin asset management company Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) resumed its buying after a two-week pause. The funds for this purchase were raised by the company through the sale of its STRC and MSTR at-the-market (ATM) stocks.

According to information disclosed by Michael Saylor, the company recently spent $329.9 million to buy 4,871 Bitcoins, with an average purchase price of $67,718; currently, the company holds 766,970 BTC, with a total investment of approximately $58.02 billion.

According to documents submitted by Strategy to the SEC, these Bitcoins were purchased between April 1 and 5. Unlike past purchases often made at price peaks, this purchase occurred while the spot price of Bitcoin was still above the cost basis, currently in a profitable state.

However, from an overall position perspective, Strategy's Bitcoin reserves remain in a state of loss. The company's average holding cost is $75,644, with a current price of $68,855 reflecting a loss of about 9.0%.

Analysts believe this loss began with the price crash in early February, compounded by uncertainties such as the Iran war, which have prevented Bitcoin prices from rebounding to the breakeven point.

It is noteworthy that Strategy currently holds 766,970 Bitcoins, accounting for 3.65% of the total network supply, making it the largest corporate Bitcoin holder in terms of share percentage.

Meanwhile, Bitmine, the largest holder of Ethereum, also increased its holdings by 71,252 ETH in the past week, marking the largest single-week purchase since December 2025. Currently, the Ethereum asset management company holds over 4.8 million ETH, accounting for 3.98% of the total ETH supply.

Overall, Strategy's resumption of purchases and Bitmine's simultaneous accumulation indicate that leading companies' mid- to long-term value judgments on Bitcoin and Ethereum have not changed due to short-term price fluctuations.

However, Strategy's overall balance still shows a loss of 9.0%, indicating that even companies with substantial financial strength find it difficult to completely avoid market downturn risks.

Therefore, while institutional accumulation is a positive signal, investors still need to be wary of the dual risks of worsening external environments and concentrated holdings.

#Strategy #Institutional Accumulation

UK media: Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba seriously injured and in a coma, agreement unlikely to be reached before Tuesday's deadline

According to The Times of the UK, Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is currently in a coma and receiving treatment in the holy city of Qom, Iran. This information comes from a diplomatic memorandum based on intelligence from the US and Israel.

Reports indicate that Mojtaba Khamenei was injured in the US-Israeli joint airstrike on February 28, and his father, former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, was killed in this attack.

The 56-year-old Mojtaba was subsequently appointed as the new Supreme Leader, but he has not appeared in public since the outbreak of war, leading to widespread speculation about his health.

Reports show that Mojtaba Khamenei's current condition is severe, and he is unable to participate in any decision-making, raising questions about who is actually in control of Iran.

Although Iranian officials insist he is still presiding over state affairs, there is a lack of audio or video evidence of him speaking directly, only a signed statement read by state television.

Meanwhile, the body of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is being prepared for burial in the holy city of Qom, and other family members may also be interred, further heightening concerns about the safety of current Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.

Despite previous claims by US and Israeli intelligence agencies that they had tracked his movements, as the deadline set by Trump (due this Tuesday) approaches, if Iran's leadership falls into a power vacuum, it will undoubtedly add significant uncertainty to the already turbulent situation in the Persian Gulf.

So far, neither Washington nor Tehran has officially responded to the related reports.

#中东局势

On Monday, the US BTC and ETH spot ETFs saw a total net inflow of approximately $592 million.

On April 7, according to the latest data from SoSovalue, the US BTC spot ETF recorded a total net inflow of $471 million over the last two days; and there were no BTC ETFs that had net outflows on that day.

Among them, BlackRock's IBIT, Fidelity's FBTC, and Ark & 21Shares' ARKB recorded net inflows of approximately $182 million (about 2,610 BTC), $147 million (about 2,110 BTC), and $119 million (about 1,700 BTC) respectively for the day.

Next, Grayscale's BTC, Bitwise's BITB, and VanEck's HODL recorded net inflows of $17.59 million (252.06 BTC), $3.79 million (54.31 BTC), and $1.97 million (28.28 BTC) respectively for the day.

As of now, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $90.26 billion, accounting for 6.46% of Bitcoin's total market value, with a cumulative total net inflow of $56.43 billion.

On the same day, the US Ethereum spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $120 million, marking the first net inflow of the week; and there were no ETH ETFs that had net outflows on that day.

Among them, BlackRock's ETHA and Fidelity's FETH recorded net inflows of $60.82 million (about 28,390 ETH) and $40.06 million (about 18,700 ETH) respectively for the day.

Next, Grayscale's ETH and ETHE, as well as 21Shares' TETH, recorded net inflows of $14.43 million (about 6,740 ETH), $2.79 million (about 1,300 ETH), and $2.14 million (988.34 ETH) respectively for the day.

As of now, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is $12.28 billion, accounting for 4.74% of Ethereum's total market value, with a cumulative total net inflow of $11.60 billion.

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF

The ongoing cryptocurrency winter has caused 21 industry projects to announce shutdowns or service reductions under bear market pressure.

According to DeFi analyst Scribbler, the prolonged cryptocurrency bear market is triggering a new round of industry reshuffling, with 21 crypto and Web3 projects announcing shutdowns or significant business contractions, covering multiple areas including DeFi, wallets, NFTs, and blockchain games.

Analysts believe that the core reasons for the shutdowns of most projects are market liquidity drying up, declining user activity, and high operating costs. These factors combined ultimately lead to projects being unable to maintain normal operations.

In the wallet sector, Leap Wallet will fully cease operations on May 28, requiring users to transfer their assets as soon as possible; Magic Eden has closed its own ME wallet and refocused on the core business of the NFT platform.

The DeFi sector has also not been spared, with Angle Protocol halting stablecoin-related operations; ZeroLend, Polynomial Finance, and others have scaled back their businesses due to insufficient liquidity and low trading volume.

NFT, social, and blockchain game projects are also facing tough situations. Platforms like Nifty Gateway and Sound.xyz have successively reduced or even shut down some of their operations; Blocto has experienced significant losses due to a crash in its ecosystem token;

Meanwhile, blockchain game projects like Runiverse and Pixiland Social have stated that high development costs and unclear regulatory prospects have led them to decide to terminate their Web3-related businesses.

Additionally, several niche projects such as Dmail, Yupp AI, Step Finance, DataHaven, and MilkyWay have gradually exited the market due to issues like security vulnerabilities, depleted funds, and failure to retain users.

Industry analysts point out that this large-scale shutdown is not a sign of industry recession but a natural elimination in the bear market. Many projects hastily launched during the bull market lack sustainable business models.

At the same time, industry insiders remind users to promptly check their assets on relevant platforms and complete transfers in a timely manner to prevent the risk of being unable to operate assets after projects shut down.

Overall, this round of industry reshuffling is squeezing out market bubbles, aiming to promote the cryptocurrency ecosystem towards a more streamlined and resilient direction through the elimination of less competitive projects.

#项目关停 #加密寒冬

Metaplanet last week surpassed Strategy with $405 million, becoming the main force in BTC accumulation among non-mining listed companies

On April 7, according to SoSoValue data, the total net Bitcoin purchases by non-mining listed companies worldwide reached $735 million last week, with a total net inflow of 9,947 Bitcoins in a single week.

First, the Japanese listed company Metaplanet spent a whopping $405 million last week to purchase 5,075 Bitcoins, raising its total holdings to 40,177 coins, ranking first in net inflows among non-mining listed companies worldwide last week.

Next, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) invested about $330 million during the same period, buying 4,871 Bitcoins at a price of $67,718 per coin, bringing Strategy's total holdings to 766,970 coins.

Following that, the British Bitcoin company BHOD purchased 1 Bitcoin for about $68,000 last week. It is worth noting that in the previous week, only BHOD purchased 1 Bitcoin for about $73,000.

As of the time of writing, the total amount of Bitcoin held by non-mining listed companies worldwide is 1,033,280 coins, accounting for 5.16% of Bitcoin's circulating market value, with the current total market value of Bitcoin holdings by non-mining listed companies worldwide being approximately $70.77 billion.

Overall, aside from Metaplanet and Strategy, only one small company bought 1 Bitcoin last week, with an increase significantly accelerating compared to the previous week, but the coverage among enterprises is not broad. Therefore, whether this round of accumulation has sustainability still awaits validation from data in the following weeks.

#上市公司 #机构持仓

Bitcoin profit and loss trading ratio has reached a 12-week peak, will the pressure of profit-taking come again?

According to a post from Cointelegraph, observing Santiment's on-chain data reveals noteworthy signal changes in the Bitcoin market over the past weekend.

Data shows that the ratio of profitable trades to losing trades for Bitcoin reached 2.95:1 over the past weekend, a level that marks a new high in 12 weeks, indicating that market participants are generally in a profitable state.

From a historical data perspective, when profitable trades significantly outpace losing trades, it usually signals the formation of a short-term price peak, reflecting that the market may have entered an overly optimistic state;

Conversely, when the number of losing trades exceeds profitable trades, it often serves as a reliable buy signal, indicating that when market panic reaches its peak, it may be a good time to position oneself.

However, despite historical patterns suggesting that when the proportion of profitable trades is too high, it usually comes with increased profit-taking pressure, the current data only reflects the profit and loss structure of on-chain transfer behaviors and does not directly point to specific selling intentions.

More importantly, this indicator needs to be combined with other on-chain data such as fee levels, trading volume changes, and address activity to make a comprehensive judgment.

In conclusion, the proportion of profitable trades on the Bitcoin chain has risen to a 12-week high, indicating that the market is generally in a floating profit state, and investor sentiment is leaning towards optimism, but whether large-scale profit-taking will occur in the future still requires further observation.

#BTC

The activity level of the Bitcoin network has significantly rebounded, with daily trading volume reaching its highest level since November 2024.

According to data from CryptoQuant, the current daily Bitcoin trading volume is approximately 615,000 transactions, the highest level since November 2024. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin price remains fluctuating around $68,900 on the chart.

However, it is worth noting that this increase in trading volume is not merely due to a rise in user activity; it is also accompanied by a significant change in the usage structure of address types.

Data shows that from March 1 to April 1, there was a significant shift in the distribution of Bitcoin address types: the proportion of P2WPKH (a native SegWit address) rose from 62.21% to 71.64%, an increase of 9.43 percentage points;

while the proportion of P2TR (Taproot address, which supports more complex scripts) decreased from 20.79% to 12.86%, a reduction of 7.53 percentage points; other types such as P2SH also saw a slight decline.

This indicates that users and institutions are migrating from newer address formats to more traditional or more efficient types, which may be related to transaction costs, wallet strategies, or compliance operations.

Another key background is that, although Bitcoin prices remain relatively high, total transaction fees have not surged in sync, remaining at relatively low levels.

Given that the low-fee environment enables exchanges, custodians, and large holders to perform operations such as UTXO consolidation, wallet rebalancing, and on-chain fund redistribution at lower costs;

therefore, the current surge in trading volume may not entirely stem from natural new user demand, with a considerable portion belonging to internal operational activities of institutions or platforms.

In summary, the recent rise in Bitcoin's network activity and the trading volume reaching a new high in a year and a half is accompanied by a significant adjustment in usage structure, indicating that market distribution is not balanced.

In a low-fee environment, large institutional participants are more motivated to conduct on-chain consolidation and fund allocation, which may be the primary reason for the surge in daily trading volume.

Therefore, when observing Bitcoin's on-chain activities, one cannot solely look at trading volume; it is necessary to consider multi-dimensional data such as transaction fees and address distribution to accurately assess whether the market is experiencing natural growth or internal consolidation.

#BTC链上异动

Market bets on the probability of Japan raising interest rates at the end of April being 69%, yet the Bank of Japan has released a 'cooling signal'.

In its latest quarterly regional economic report, the Bank of Japan released highly subtle policy signals, deliberately avoiding to fuel market expectations that it might raise interest rates before the next meeting on April 28.

Against the backdrop of increasing uncertainty in the future, the Bank of Japan noted that as prices rise, particularly due to the military conflict in the Middle East leading to rising energy prices, there may be negative impacts on corporate profits and private consumption.

Based on this consideration, the Bank of Japan is reluctant to make any commitment to raise interest rates just three weeks before the next rate decision on April 28.

Although the Bank of Japan maintained its assessment of regional economies, it still emphasized the risks posed by the Iran conflict and rising energy prices. From the market's response, the current market expects the probability of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan this month to be around 69%.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan also pointed out in the report that multiple feedback indicators show that companies are continuing to pass on rising costs such as labor and logistics to sales prices.

It is worth noting that companies are also taking countermeasures by controlling the extent of price increases and expanding low-priced product categories to alleviate consumers' increasing inflation fatigue.

Overall, the Bank of Japan has chosen to maintain a vague stance at this juncture, neither closing the door to interest rate hikes nor confirming actions in advance, aiming to retain policy flexibility while closely monitoring energy price trends and the capacity of domestic demand.

#日本央行

Trump blasts the Supreme Court's rulings on tariffs and birthright citizenship as "terrible."

On April 6, U.S. President Trump fiercely criticized the Supreme Court on social media, accusing it of making "terrible decisions" on the two core issues of tariffs and birthright citizenship, and publicly criticized the justices for lacking basic judgment in considering the national interest.

Trump stated in the article that it was a "shame" the Supreme Court did not watch the commentary program "The Mark Levin Show" that evening, and suggested that if the justices understood the so-called "birthright citizenship scam," they would never allow this "money-making scheme" to continue.

He emphasized that the Supreme Court should abandon political positions and use common sense judgment to uphold the national interest, rather than indulging those so-called "haters and frauds." These remarks directly pointed to the birthright citizenship case related to its immigration policy that the Supreme Court is currently hearing.

The controversy focuses on whether the executive order signed by the Trump administration attempting to eliminate automatic citizenship for children of illegal immigrants and temporary residents is unconstitutional. The Supreme Court held a hearing on April 1 and is currently in the decision-making stage.

Moreover, Trump also directed his criticism towards the Supreme Court's previous tariff ruling, stating that this ruling is yet another "disastrous defeat;"

The incident originated in February this year when the Supreme Court ruled that the large-scale global tariff measures implemented by the Trump administration under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were unconstitutional and required the government to refund about $165 billion in related tariffs.

Trump expressed strong dissatisfaction with this, believing that the ruling favored specific interest groups and resulted in the U.S. losing hundreds of billions of dollars in potential tariff revenue.

He also warned the Supreme Court that it has continuously made rulings that harm national interests and that the U.S. government can no longer afford for the court to make similar erroneous rulings again.

This public outburst has been interpreted by the public as Trump applying political and public pressure on the Supreme Court at the time of the ruling on the "birthright citizenship" case, intending to influence judicial decisions through public opinion once again, in order to secure favorable rulings for his political agenda.

#特朗普

The U.S. and Iran are currently engaged in in-depth negotiations through multiple channels, with a high likelihood of reaching a ceasefire agreement by Tuesday.

According to Bloomberg on April 6, U.S. President Trump stated in a phone interview that the U.S. is conducting "in-depth negotiations" with Iran, and an agreement is expected to be reached before the Tuesday deadline.

Trump indicated that the chances of reaching an agreement between the U.S. and Iran are significant, but also warned that if an agreement cannot be reached, all targets within Iran will be destroyed.

In the interview, Trump revealed that his special envoy is engaged in intensive negotiations with the Iranian side. The two parties are continuously communicating on relevant issues, and the pace of negotiations is relatively tight, with relevant contacts entering a substantive advancement stage.

According to informed sources participating in the negotiations, the current communication is being conducted through multiple parallel channels, involving countries such as Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey as intermediaries, as well as direct communication between Trump’s advisors and Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif.

Trump stated that the negotiations with Iran are progressing smoothly, but also acknowledged the possibility of difficulties in reaching a consensus with the Iranian side. He further revealed that both sides had previously come close to finalizing an agreement for direct negotiations, but Iran ultimately proposed to delay the meeting by five days.

This delay also led Trump to question the sincerity of the Iranian side, believing that they lack a serious negotiating attitude, and he subsequently ordered military strikes on Iranian bridges to apply pressure on Iran.

When asked whether he is concerned that the strikes could harm innocent civilians, Trump stated that the people opposing the current Iranian government would support such military actions, believing that this would help weaken the Iranian regime.

He also reiterated his previous hardline stance, clearly warning that if Iran does not meet the relevant demands put forth by the U.S. before the Tuesday deadline, it will face more severe consequences.

#美伊停火截止日期