The head of Federal Reserve recently signalled that the U.S. labour market is showing signs of weakening — a trend the Fed is watching closely, even as inflation remains somewhat elevated.
During the latest policy meeting, the Fed reduced interest rates by 25 basis points and paused its balance-sheet runoff, noting that job-gains have slowed this year while unemployment edged up. Powell emphasized that available private-sector and public-sector data suggest a “low-hire, low-fire” dynamic: firms aren’t hiring aggressively, but layoffs remain modest — pointing to a gradually cooling labour market rather than an abrupt downturn.
This situation creates a policy dilemma: while the Fed remains committed to its dual mandate of stable prices and maximum employment, persistent price pressures mean rate cuts must be balanced carefully.
For households and businesses, this could mean a modest easing in borrowing costs — making loans and mortgages slightly cheaper if the Fed continues on this path. But the real indicator will be upcoming employment and inflation data, which will guide whether this is the start of a series of cuts or a pause.
In short: Powell’s comments underscore that the Fed sees a weakening labour market as a valid reason to ease policy — but they’re not rushing. Any future action remains data-dependent and measured.
A note from Deutsche Bank’s research team suggests the U.S. central bank may have more easing ahead. According to the latest projections, the Fed is likely to deliver at least one 25-basis-point cut in the near term — part of a broader outlook that expects rates to slip below 3.5% by end-2026 under certain economic conditions.
Deutsche Bank argues that with inflation showing signs of gradual normalisation and growth headwinds starting to emerge, monetary policy may tilt more dovish. As demand-side pressures ease and economic-growth drivers shift (for example through productivity gains rather than just stimulus), the case for more accommodative rates strengthens.
What this could mean for markets and investors: lower rates tend to support risk assets like equities, reduce borrowing costs, and improve liquidity conditions. On the flip side, rate cuts signal that economic growth might be softening — which introduces caution.
Still, Deutsche Bank warns that their forecast comes with caveats: future moves by the Fed will remain data-driven, especially with inflation risks, employment trends and global economic uncertainty still in play.
Federal Reserve Chair Powell has warned that the U.S. labour market is showing clear signs of cooling — even as inflation remains persistently above target.
He noted that hiring activity has slowed significantly this year, and job creation has been weak, suggesting that employment momentum isn’t as strong as it used to be. Despite this softness in labour demand, price pressures continue to be a concern, with inflation still elevated.
This puts the Fed in a difficult position: on one side, a cooling job market raises risks to economic growth and employment — on the other, persistent inflation complicates any decision to ease monetary policy.
For markets and everyday Americans, this could mean several things: borrowing costs may fall if the Fed opts for rate cuts to support employment. But if inflation stays high, relief could be limited. Also, the mixed signals — weak jobs yet sticky inflation — might keep uncertainty high around the Fed’s next moves.
In sum: Powell’s remarks highlight a fragile balancing act for the central bank — trying to support a weakening labour market, while still grappling with inflation risks. The near future may bring volatility, as investors and policymakers closely watch upcoming jobs and inflation data for clues on where the economy is headed.
A leading J.P. Morgan economist has recently signalled a shift in the firm’s expectations for the Federal Reserve’s near-term moves. The bank now expects a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed at the upcoming meeting — reversing its earlier view that policymakers would hold fire until early next year.
This change in forecast reflects growing signs that economic conditions may be weakening and that recent comments from influential Fed officials have tilted sentiment toward easing. The implication: if the Fed does cut rates, it could ease borrowing costs, spur risk-asset demand, and potentially inject fresh liquidity into markets — a welcome boost for investors wary of tight financial conditions.
That said, J.P. Morgan’s research team cautions that this may not mark the start of a prolonged easing cycle. Rather, they describe it as a modest adjustment — a tactical move shaped by evolving macroeconomic signals and expectations around inflation, employment, and growth.
For investors and market watchers, this underscores how sensitive policy expectations remain to economic data. Markets may respond quickly to both the Fed’s actions and its forward guidance. While a rate cut could temporarily support equities and risk assets, uncertainty around future economic momentum and inflation risks means the path ahead is far from assured.
In short: J.P. Morgan’s revised view reflects growing confidence that the Fed could ease soon — but also serves as a reminder that even such forecasts must contend with shifting data and uncertain global conditions.
The latest moves by the Fed, including its December 2025 rate cut, have sharpened market focus on where interest rates might land by late 2026. As of now, many bond investors and traders are penciling in only a “shallow easing cycle,” rather than aggressive cuts.
What does that mean? Given current projections and economic conditions, the idea of ending 2026 with a policy rate around 3.1% has gained traction among some market watchers. That target reflects a scenario where the Fed delivers a few modest rate reductions, but keeps policy relatively restrained because inflation remains sticky and growth somewhat resilient.
If the 3.1%-by-end-2026 outcome materializes, borrowing costs would still be moderately low by historical standards — potentially supporting sectors dependent on credit (housing, business expansion, consumer credit). Risk assets could benefit, and debt-servicing burdens for households and companies may remain manageable. On the flip side, a shallow easing cycle leaves less buffer if the economy stumbles — meaning any negative growth or inflation shock could lead to policy volatility.
Still, the forecast isn’t set in stone. The Fed’s internal projections — the dot plot — currently show a range of possibilities, and there’s disagreement among policymakers about how far and how fast to cut rates.
In short: 3.1% by end-2026 seems like a plausible base-case scenario for many in the markets. But the odds of deviation — either toward higher rates or deeper cuts — remain substantial, depending on how inflation, growth, and economic risks evolve.
The Federal Reserve has announced it will begin purchasing short-term Treasury bills starting December 12, marking a shift in its balance-sheet strategy.
Over the next month, the Fed plans to buy roughly $40 billion in Treasury bills, as part of its “reserve management purchases” program. This move aims to rebuild liquidity in the financial system after months of tightening.
Why this matters: by buying T-bills, the Fed injects cash (reserves) back into the banking system — helping to stabilize short-term funding markets and maintain control over interest-rate settings. This is especially relevant after the Fed recently ended its quantitative-tightening program, when it had allowed securities to mature without replacement.
For markets and investors, this could ease liquidity strains that have caused volatility — potentially supporting bond markets, easing money-market pressure, and indirectly benefiting risk assets. It also signals that the Fed is actively monitoring reserve levels and willing to step in preemptively to avoid funding stress.
That said — while this step refills reserves, it is not exactly the same as broad “quantitative easing (QE)” of the past. The focus remains on short-term bills and stabilization of reserves rather than aggressive expansion of the balance sheet or long-term bond buying.
In short: with Treasury-bill purchases starting December 12, the Fed is quietly pivoting toward maintaining liquidity in the system — a subtle but important move that could calm markets and influence funding conditions in the weeks ahead.
Societe Generale now suggests that the recent rally in equities could get another push — because the Fed still has what the bank calls “unfinished business” when it comes to cutting interest rates. The analysts argue that monetary policy remains “moderately restrictive,” and a more forceful rate cut could help rebalance growth risks and support risk-assets.
According to Societe Generale, easing from the Fed could widen beyond just major U.S. stocks. Their recommendation: look at small- and mid-cap equities, emerging markets, and sectors like banks and commodities, which tend to benefit when rates fall and liquidity improves.
If the Fed delivers — or even signals — deeper rate cuts, this could fuel renewed investor interest in cyclicals, value-oriented names, and non-U.S. equities. At the same time, the firm cautions against relying only on past patterns: future performance will still depend heavily on inflation, global economic conditions, and central-bank decisions.
For investors and market watchers, the message is clear: with rate cuts still possible and liquidity returning, markets may get a lift — but it’s wise to position smartly: diversify holdings, consider sectors that benefit from easing, and be ready for volatility if global conditions shift.
The U.S. central bank has once again cut its benchmark interest rate — marking the third consecutive reduction this year. On December 10, 2025, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reduced the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 3.50 %–3.75 % — the lowest level in nearly three years.
This move comes amid signs of a cooling labour market and softer economic signals, leading many policymakers to favour easing to support growth. At the same time, inflation remains sticky — a factor that’s causing some level of caution within the Fed.
For households and businesses, the rate cut could mean cheaper loans and mortgages, potentially boosting spending and investment. Lower borrowing costs may also encourage corporate expansion and support debt-sensitive sectors.
Markets reacted positively — with risk assets like equities rallying on hopes that easier financing conditions and improved liquidity could sustain economic momentum. Bond yields and the U.S. dollar also saw volatility as investors adjusted to the new rate outlook.
Still, the Fed’s easing streak isn’t a guarantee of smooth growth ahead. With inflation pressures lingering, future policy moves will likely remain data-dependent. The coming months will be closely watched — job growth, consumer demand, and inflation data will all shape whether this rate path continues.
Markets are increasingly pricing in a rate cut by the Fed at its upcoming December meeting, as signs of economic softness build and investor sentiment leans toward easing.
If the cut happens, it would mark the third reduction in 2025 — following earlier cuts and a broader shift in policy as the central bank balances between taming inflation and supporting growth.
Why this matters: Lower interest rates tend to reduce borrowing costs across the board — from mortgages to business loans — which can spur spending, boost risk-asset appetite, and potentially fuel a rebound in equities. For emerging markets and global investors, a Fed rate cut may also weaken the dollar, making foreign investments more attractive.
But there are important caveats. Some Fed officials remain cautious, warning that persistent inflation and economic uncertainty could limit how far the central bank is willing to ease.
For investors and traders, the window right around the Fed’s decision could bring volatility — but also opportunities. A cut could drive markets upward; a hold or dovish-to-hawkish signal might trigger a sell-off or stronger dollar.
In short: the possibility of a meaningful rate cut is on the table — and market participants are watching closely. It’s a delicate balancing act: easing could revive growth and markets, but risks remain if inflation or data surprises emerge.
The economic adviser at the White House recently said there is “plenty of room” for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates — a statement that has added fresh weight to expectations of a rate cut at the Fed’s upcoming meeting.
This backing comes at a time when markets are already leaning heavily toward easing. According to the latest data, futures traders assign roughly an 89.6 % probability to the Fed delivering a 25-basis-point cut in December.
Why this matters: If the Fed does cut rates, borrowing costs across the economy — from mortgages to business loans — could come down. That has the potential to boost investor confidence, encourage spending and investment, and give a shot in the arm to sectors sensitive to interest-rate changes.
However, not everyone at the Fed is on the same page. Some policymakers remain cautious, citing sticky inflation and the need for careful evaluation of economic data before easing further.
That means while the official White House tone supports a cut, the final decision will still depend on the Fed’s internal view of inflation, employment, and overall economic health. For now though — with expectations high — markets seem to be positioning for a favourable move.
The past 24–48 hours have shaken the cryptocurrency world, with the market seeing massive liquidations totalling hundreds of millions of dollars across major tokens and leveraged trades.
According to exchange data, over $417 million in positions were liquidated recently: roughly $119 million came from long-positions and $299 million from shorts. In this event, 123,505 traders had their leveraged trades wiped out — the largest single liquidation order alone was around $24 million on BTC-USDT.
This kind of large-scale liquidation tends to be driven by rapid price swings, sharp volatility, and leveraged exposure. Major cryptocurrencies — including both long-favoured assets and more speculative altcoins — got caught up as market sentiment wobbled.
For many traders and investors, this underlines the risks tied to leverage and hype-driven moves. When positions are heavily leveraged, even a modest price drop can trigger forced liquidations, leading to cascading losses across the board.
If you invest or trade in crypto — especially with leverage — this may be a good time to re-assess risk. Keep a close eye on your exposure, and consider whether holding too many leveraged positions makes sense in a volatile market. And if you prefer a safer approach: this event shows why diversification (or sticking to spot holdings over derivatives) can offer a better balance between potential reward and risk.
Global equity markets may be entering a promising phase as we head into early 2026, according to UBS’s latest outlook. The firm expects a cocktail of supportive economic conditions — earnings growth, favorable financial conditions, and continued technological momentum — to drive stock-market performance.
In the U.S., UBS sees the S&P 500 rising toward 7,500 by the end of 2026, powered largely by solid earnings — especially from technology companies — rather than lofty valuations.
Their report highlights that momentum from AI-driven innovation, strong corporate profits, and improving macroeconomic tailwinds could broaden the rally beyond traditional big-cap tech to sectors like utilities, healthcare, banks and more.
UBS also suggests that global equity markets — not just the U.S. — stand to benefit. With supportive fiscal policies, technological adoption, and improving growth in regions such as Europe, APAC and emerging economies, diversified portfolios may find multiple opportunities.
That said, UBS notes risks remain — from sticky inflation to geopolitical uncertainties — which could derail market momentum. But if conditions remain broadly supportive, 2026 might offer one of the more favourable windows for equity markets in recent years.
For investors, this could mean widening your investment lens beyond just mega-cap tech to include sectors that stand to benefit from structural trends — and considering diversified global exposure rather than concentrating only in U.S. stocks.
The Federal Reserve recently engaged in a large round of reverse-repo operations, accepting a total of $321.1 billion from 10 counterparties through fixed-rate reverse-repurchase agreements. This move signals the Fed’s ongoing effort to manage liquidity in the financial system as reserve levels and short-term funding conditions remain under pressure.
For context: a reverse repo (RRP) is essentially the Fed selling securities — usually Treasuries — to eligible money-market participants with an agreement to buy them back later. The effect: it temporarily absorbs cash from the banking system and reduces overall reserve balances.
Why does this matter now? As the Fed recently ended its balance-sheet reduction program and markets face tighter liquidity, reverse-repo operations offer a tool to fine-tune liquidity — avoiding excess cash flooding the banking system, while giving money-market funds a safe overnight parking spot.
For investors and market watchers, this is a subtle but important signal: with liquidity being carefully managed, there could be implications for short-term interest rates, funding conditions, and the flow of capital between money markets, treasury securities, and risk assets.
In short: the Fed isn’t just changing interest-rate targets — it’s actively using its balance-sheet tools to steer liquidity. Watching how reverse-repo levels, reserve balances, and short-term funding rates evolve might give an early indication of stress or stability in the financial plumbing.
The rising oracle network APRO:
Crypto analysts are increasingly spotlighting APRO as an emerging powerhouse in the decentralized oracle space. APRO offers both Data Push and Data Pull mechanisms, enabling smart contracts to fetch real-time information reliably. What sets APRO apart is its hybrid structure: off-chain computation is combined with on-chain validation, while advanced features such as AI-driven data verification and verifiable randomness help ensure the integrity of results. Supporting over 40 blockchains, APRO can deliver a diverse array of data — from cryptocurrency prices and stock values to real estate metrics and gaming statistics — making it versatile across DeFi, NFTs, gaming, and real-world asset platforms.
By closely integrating with blockchain infrastructure, APRO also reduces gas overhead and complexity for developers. Analysts believe that as on-chain adoption grows, APRO’s token could benefit from increased demand for oracle services. For projects seeking scalable, secure, and multi-asset data feeds, APRO is emerging as a top contender — potentially reshaping how smart contracts consume real-world information.
$AERO
{future}(AEROUSDT)
#APRO
@APRO-Oracle
Prediction for Bitcoin (BTC) right now:
Bitcoin is trading in the $91,000–$93,000 range, trying to firm up after recent volatility and macro pressure. Support near $89,000–$90,000 remains vital — a clean hold here could pave the way for a rebound toward $95,000–$98,000. If bulls regain control, a push toward $100,000–$104,000 is possible before year-end, especially if institutional inflows or favorable macro developments arrive.
On the downside, a breakdown below $89,000 may trigger a slide toward $85,000–$82,000, a move that could shake confidence and draw in more selling — especially if liquidity remains thin.
Technically, recent consolidation suggests indecision: the price hovers just above key support, while momentum indicators are mixed. The next few trading sessions are likely to remain range-bound, with volatility persisting. Unless a clear catalyst emerges, expect Bitcoin to trade cautiously — the near-term bias is neutral with a slightly bullish tilt.
$BTC
{spot}(BTCUSDT)
“Don’t Fear the Dip — Tom Lee Says: This Could Be a Buying Opportunity Ahead of the Fed”
Markets have wobble — but according to Tom Lee (the self-style "bull" of Wall Street), this tumble isn’t the start of a crash. He argues that despite recent turbulence, the broader uptrend remains intact — and for long-term investors, dips might be the best time to enter.
Lee points out two major themes:
The market seems to have overreacted to rate-cut uncertainties and macro jitters.
If upcoming policy signals from Federal Reserve lean dovish, the stage could be set for renewed equity upside.
Bottom line? Lee believes what feels scary now could actually be the calm before the next rally.
Quick Poll — What Do You Think?
> If the Fed cuts rates in the next meeting, will you:
U.S. Labor Costs Grow at Slowest Pace in Four Years — What It Means
The latest data show that labor costs in the U.S. are rising at the slowest rate in four years, offering fresh signals on the state of the economy, inflation, and what may lie ahead.
The Employment Cost Index (ECI) — the broadest measure of wages + benefits — rose 3.5 % over the 12 months through September. That’s the smallest annual increase since mid-2021.
On a quarterly basis, labor costs rose only 0.8 %, down from 0.9 % in the previous quarter.
Wages and salaries — which make up the bulk of labor costs — increased 0.8% last quarter (versus 1.0% in the prior quarter), with a 3.5% year-on-year rise. Adjusted for inflation, real wage growth was around 0.6%.
Why This Matters
Cooling inflation pressure: Slower labor-cost growth can curb one of the biggest drivers of price increases — helping ease services inflation and overall price pressures. That may give policymakers more comfort that inflation could moderate without drastic rate hikes.
Signs of a cooling labor market: Together with weak hiring and fewer job-quit rates, the slowdown suggests the labor market — which has been tightening for years — is losing momentum.
Implications for interest rates: For central banks, especially the Federal Reserve, moderation in wage growth reduces pressure to raise rates aggressively — and might support a more gradual approach to rate changes.
What This Could Signal Ahead
Lower labor-cost growth might translate to softer consumer spending over time, as real income growth erodes.
For the average worker, pay raises may become more modest — which could weigh on sentiment, especially if prices remain high.
If the trend continues, businesses might find labor more affordable — possibly encouraging hiring or expansion, but wage growth likely stays modest.
In short: the heat is cooling on wages and benefits in the U.S. — a development that could ease inflation pressures and influence monetary-policy decisions, but also hint at softening momentum in jobs and consumer demand.