#btcvsgold Ray Dalio’s latest comments are a reminder of what Bitcoin is to institutions — and what it isn’t.
Dalio’s Core Message
Bitcoin will not become a central bank reserve asset in his view.
Main reasons:
Extreme price volatility makes it unsuitable for monetary reserves.
Regulation is still evolving and fragmented.
It lacks sovereign credit backing, unlike fiat reserves such as the U.S. dollar or government bonds.
In Dalio’s framework, BTC is at best a satellite asset in institutional portfolios, not the new anchor of the global financial system.
$BTC Why the Timing Matters (Post‑MiCA)
MiCA in the EU has just raised the compliance bar for crypto service providers and stablecoins, signalling that regulators want crypto inside a tightly controlled framework rather than as a parallel monetary system.
Against that backdrop, Dalio’s message is:
Institutions will keep allocating to Bitcoin as a diversifier and speculative growth asset.
But they are unlikely to treat it as “digital central bank money” or a true gold replacement.
Implications for Valuation
If BTC is framed as a risk asset/alternative allocation, not reserve money:
Upside is still meaningful, but the valuation ceiling is lower than “global reserve currency” narratives imply.
Flows will depend more on liquidity cycles, risk appetite, and regulation, not on a structural shift away from the dollar.
Dalio’s “cold water” doesn’t kill the bull case; it resizes it. Bitcoin remains a powerful macro asset, but not (in his view) the future base layer of central bank reserves.