$BTC 4H Update
Still treating this as a potential Wave 4 retracement, with risk of a Wave 5 push lower to follow.
On the structure itself, price rejected from the upper channel and failed to hold above prior resistance. That keeps the short term bias corrective rather than impulsive.
Key points from the chart
• Stochastic RSI on the 4h is maxed out and rolling. Historically this has aligned well with local tops rather than continuation moves.
• Price is consolidating beneath prior support turned resistance, which now sits around the low to mid 94k region.
• Invalidation for Wave 4 is a clean break and hold above 94k. That would suggest the corrective count is wrong and the market is likely transitioning back into an impulsive move higher.
If the count holds
A Wave 5 down would complete an A wave of a larger corrective ABC move. That ABC would then form the Y wave within the broader WXY corrective structure that has been in effect since the $126k top. In simple terms, this would still be a correction within a bigger trend, not a macro trend change.
Additional TA to note
• The move down from the recent high is holding within a declining channel, which is typical behaviour for corrective legs.
• Fibonacci retracement support below lines up with the 0.382 to 0.618 zone, which is a common target area for Wave 4 completion.
• Momentum has weakened materially since the last high, with no impulsive follow through on rallies. That supports the corrective interpretation.
• RSI is struggling to reclaim the mid range, another sign this is distribution rather than accumulation.
As always, this is timeframe specific. This is a tactical view on the 4h, not a statement about the higher timeframe bull trend
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