#usadp98kmiss
K guys , first half over and USA is winning
🇺🇸🔥
Let’s talk markets for a while before the second half begins. We have a busy schedule for tomorrow
🥵
so i’ll leave this goodie
🍬
here
Jobs report tomorrow at
ET
My take & numbers
👇
ADP:
+98K vs. 118K exp
ected, down from 122K in May. Nearly half of it (48K) came from education and health services. Leisure & hospitality posted its sixth straight month of weak hiring. ADP’s own economist: hiring slowdown driven by both demand and labor supply constraints.
ISM Manufacturing: 53.3 still expanding, but employment sub-index at 49.7 remains in contraction (33 consecutive months). And the number nobody’s talking about enough: Prices Paid collapsed from 82.1 to 73.0. That’s the oil-driven disinflation channel showing up in hard survey data.
My thesis -Substack subs have it with detail- doesn’t need the labor market to break it needs the war-premium inflation impulse to fade. It’s fading.
GDPNow just got cut from 3.1% to 1.2%. Momentum is cooling into Q3
😉
Warsh’s hawkish dot plot is built on wage-driven inflation persistence. Consensus expects YoY earnings to accelerate from 3.4% to 3.5%. That’s the trap in this report.
If AHE YoY prints 3.4% or lower → the acceleration narrative dies, hike pricing fades, and the no-hikes thesis gets its strongest data point since the June FOMC.
$QNT
$ZEC
$BANANA
K guys , first half over and USA is winning
🇺🇸🔥
Let’s talk markets for a while before the second half begins. We have a busy schedule for tomorrow
🥵
so i’ll leave this goodie
🍬
here
Jobs report tomorrow at
ET
My take & numbers
👇
ADP:
+98K vs. 118K exp
ected, down from 122K in May. Nearly half of it (48K) came from education and health services. Leisure & hospitality posted its sixth straight month of weak hiring. ADP’s own economist: hiring slowdown driven by both demand and labor supply constraints.
ISM Manufacturing: 53.3 still expanding, but employment sub-index at 49.7 remains in contraction (33 consecutive months). And the number nobody’s talking about enough: Prices Paid collapsed from 82.1 to 73.0. That’s the oil-driven disinflation channel showing up in hard survey data.
My thesis -Substack subs have it with detail- doesn’t need the labor market to break it needs the war-premium inflation impulse to fade. It’s fading.
GDPNow just got cut from 3.1% to 1.2%. Momentum is cooling into Q3
😉
Warsh’s hawkish dot plot is built on wage-driven inflation persistence. Consensus expects YoY earnings to accelerate from 3.4% to 3.5%. That’s the trap in this report.
If AHE YoY prints 3.4% or lower → the acceleration narrative dies, hike pricing fades, and the no-hikes thesis gets its strongest data point since the June FOMC.
$QNT
$ZEC
$BANANA