#比特币与黄金战争 Has the price of gold soared to $5055? Two major "undercurrents" are rewriting market rules

J.P. Morgan's latest research report has ignited the market—gold prices may reach $5055 by 2026, and while the target price seems crazy, it actually contains the code for capital migration.

Supply and demand model forms an iron bottom: Central banks' "mechanical" buying is unreasonable

The core logic of the report is cold and hard: global gold demand in 2026 is expected to be 585 tons per quarter, far exceeding the 350-ton supply-demand equilibrium point. Historical data shows that for every 100 tons over, gold prices increase by 2%. More critically, the rigid demand from central bank reserves, with institutions like Brazil and South Korea continuously increasing holdings, has transformed de-dollarization from a slogan into a balance sheet action. The pricing power of gold is shifting from Wall Street speculators to sovereign wealth countries.

Two major variables rewrite the script: $20 trillion in insurance funds and "old money" from crypto

The real catalysts are two types of new buyers:

1. China's insurance giants: In March 2025, 10 insurance firms including PICC and China Life completed their first gold transactions, with a 1% allocation corresponding to a potential increase of 200 billion. Insurance funds seek certainty across cycles, which perfectly aligns with the properties of gold.

2. Capital flow back from the crypto world: Ironically, after Bitcoin surpassed $110,000, high volatility forced some crypto capital to switch to gold. Data shows that in 2024, the correlation between the two is 0.86, dropping to -0.18 after Trump took office. When crypto natives begin hoarding gold bars, it indicates that a true risk-hedging mode has begun.

Ultimate paradox: The higher the gold price, the greater the opportunity for digital gold

The flip side of gold priced at $5055 is that the costs of physical gold storage, delivery friction, and liquidity constraints will be infinitely magnified. This is precisely Bitcoin's breaking point—on-chain delivery, global liquidity, and resistance to censorship. J.P. Morgan predicts a gold bull market, precisely proving that the narrative of "digital gold" is not a replacement but an inevitable evolution of value storage forms.

Investor responses:

• Short-term: Closely monitor central bank gold purchasing rhythms, with 755 tons of demand in 2026 still above historical averages

• Long-term: Gold anchors the old order, while crypto defines a new paradigm; the two are complementary rather than oppositional

• Risk control: Beware of a reversal in Federal Reserve policy triggering a high-level correction

When traditional finance uses mathematical models to justify gold prices, the on-chain world is already writing the next chapter of rules. Are you betting on the gold in the vault or the BTC in your wallet? Let's discuss your choice in the comments! Like and share to let more investors see the dark currents of capital.