Kevin Warsh Emerges as Leading Contender for Fed Chair as Trump Narrows Choices
Recent market data suggests that Kevin Warsh’s chances of being nominated as Federal Reserve Chair by President Donald Trump have surged significantly. According to Polymarket, a prediction market platform, the probability of Warsh receiving the nomination has jumped to 40%, up from just 13% three days ago. At the same time, the likelihood of economist Kevin Hassett being selected has fallen from 73% to 52%.
The shift comes after President Trump, on December 13, publicly acknowledged that he has narrowed his options for the Fed Chair to what he called his “two Kevins”—Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett. This statement underscores that Warsh, a former Fed governor and respected economist, has become a top contender in the final stages of the selection process.
Warsh’s rise in probability reflects growing market and investor attention on the potential direction of U.S. monetary policy under his leadership. Known for his experience on the Federal Open Market Committee and his tenure during the financial crisis, Warsh is viewed as someone who could influence interest rate policy and broader economic strategy in a significant way.
Meanwhile, Kevin Hassett, a former economic advisor to President Trump, has seen his chances decline, suggesting that the President may be leaning toward someone with more direct central banking experience. Analysts note that the final decision will be closely watched by markets, as the Fed Chair plays a critical role in shaping U.S. monetary policy, interest rates, and economic stability.
As Trump’s selection process continues, Warsh’s rapid ascent in the polls highlights a dynamic and closely watched decision, with significant implications for investors, policymakers, and the U.S. economy at large.
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