1️⃣ Q1 Historical Bias
Historically, Q1 is strong for BTC following a tough Q4.
But 2025’s Q4 was messy—massive inflows, treasury accumulation, and selling from OG whales offset the typical seasonal bullish trend.
2️⃣ Market Dynamics
Inflows vs. Whale Activity: Big buyers accumulating in treasuries and institutional wallets were countered by older whales selling.
4-Year Cycle: Bitcoin’s classic bull/bear cycle (often tied to halving events) could either reassert itself in Q1 2026 or show signs of cycle fatigue.
3️⃣ Key Watchpoints
Liquidity levels across exchanges and wallets → where whales are positioning.
Price reaction to these liquidity zones → early Q1 will likely define market sentiment for the year.
Altcoins like $ETH and $BNB often follow BTC’s lead, so their moves are also indicators.
4️⃣ Strategy Insight
Data → Liquidity → Price is exactly the flow: track where funds are, see where stops & leverage are stacked, then anticipate where price may “hunt liquidity.”
Keep position sizing smart—these periods can have violent squeezes.


