BTC/USDT Analysis — May 16, 2026, 10:45
What I see on the charts
15m
Sharp drop from ~79,560 to 78,066 with huge volume (3.27K BTC on the candlestick)
OBV has plummeted into the negative — sellers are dominating
MA7 has broken down, price is below MA100 and MA200
1h
Clear downtrend from 82,048 → 78,066
MA7 (78,947) and MA100/200 — all above the price, bearish setup
Volume on the decline is significant
4h
Price has broken the local low of 78,066
OBV is negative (-6,105)
MA7 < MA100 < MA200 — bearish alignment
My decision
🔴 SHORT
Justification:
All timeframes (15m / 1h / 4h) point down
Break of key support at 78,066 with volume — strong signal
OBV is falling across all TFs
Price is below all moving averages
Entry parameters:
| | |
|---|---|
| Entry | ~78,500–78,600 (retest of broken level) |
| Stop | 79,800 (above MA7 on 4h) |
| Target 1 | 76,500 |
| Target 2 | 74,700 |
| R/R | ~1:2+ |
The only risk — a potential bounce to 79,000–79,500 before continuing the drop. Therefore, enter not with the entire position, but in parts.
This is analysis, not financial advice. Trade smart and manage your risks.
#BTC☀