4.28 Market Outlook
Let’s do a quick recap. On the night of the 27th at 10:30 PM, Bitcoin’s RSI and KDJ both showed a double death cross, with selling pressure gradually increasing on the 15-minute chart, and prices spiked down to around 76500. We can mark this level. The entire night session was weakly consolidated, with buying pressure very low, as Bitcoin's price seemed deliberately suppressed below 76800. Starting from 6 AM, the three hourly bullish candles were progressively weaker, the KDJ lines stuck below 15, and the rebound didn’t even reach 77500, which was a divergence point, only to be pulled back to around 76500 by the subsequent three bearish candles. The market’s consolidation is oscillating around this level with no signs of upward recovery. The entire day session is dominated by bears; given the market's weakness, we can continue the bearish strategy we discussed yesterday and anticipate further declines.
Now, let’s take a look at Ethereum. Last night at 11 PM, it crashed from around 2320 down to about 2260, with the highest rebound hitting 2308, primarily oscillating between 2260-2280. To understand the market direction, we need to reference the previous segment; Ethereum's retracement from 2400 saw many traders expecting a rebound at around 2320 or 2280, right? However, neither of these levels provided a significant rebound, indicating that many traders are stuck in losing positions. This group needs to be flushed out.
From April 23 to 26, when Ethereum was at 2320, the predominant market sentiment was bearish, yet Ethereum squeezed up to around 2400. After this rally liquidated those positions, even if the price returns to their initial entry points, they hesitate to re-enter, and this group gets shaken out. At that point, most will set buy orders, hoping to recover to their cost basis and continue shorting. Clearly, the market won’t give them the opportunity to hold onto their positions until their losses are liquidated. This is the fate of the retail traders during this period, and also from the perspective of our competitors. If you flip back, didn’t the new guys encourage longs on the 24th and then tell you to short on the 27th? Compared to the retail traders, they just managed to eat a bit more without getting trapped.
Honestly, there’s nothing that needs updating because the trend isn’t over; we just continue with the shorts. Bitcoin's target remains unchanged at 75200. The second target is 73800-74200. Ethereum’s target is 2238, with the second target aligning with Bitcoin's entry and exit.
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