Inflation stems from national energy sovereignty anxiety and could become one of the core reasons why global inflation might struggle to return to lower levels in the long term.
Over the past few decades, the biggest impact of globalization has essentially been the continuous integration of low-cost labor into the global system. Commodity prices are anchored to where labor is cheap, so production moves to those areas. Thus, the world has been in a state of 'labor dividend deflation', but the AI era is changing all that.
As AI begins to replace more and more cognitive labor, the truly scarce resources will no longer be humans, but rather electricity, computing power, chips, data centers, stable energy, and energy transport capabilities. Essentially, AI doesn’t create productivity out of thin air; it transforms energy into intelligence.
Consequently, the pricing system for commodities will gradually shift from 'labor cost pricing' to 'energy cost pricing'.
This will bring about several massive changes: energy will re-emerge as a core strategic asset for nations. In the past internet era, many countries believed that finance, traffic, and software were the most important, but the AI era will reprove that without energy, no digital civilization can operate.
A large AI data center is essentially a super energy-consuming industrial facility.
The world is being reconstructed, and wealth will naturally be reconstructed as well.
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