🚨🚨 US
#cpi UPDATE | Tuesday, May 12
💥💥💥 US inflation data came in hotter than expected, strengthening the USD and creating strong downside pressure on Gold ($XAU USD).
⚠️ This report may reduce expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts.
📊 Core CPI m/m – 12:30 PM 🔴
Actual: 0.4%
Forecast: 0.3%
Previous: 0.2%#
🫰 Core inflation accelerated above expectations.
• Strongly bullish for USD.
• Bearish for Gold.
• Signals persistent underlying inflation pressure.
⚠️ Core CPI is one of the Fed’s key inflation gauges.
📊 CPI m/m – 12:30 PM 🔴
Actual: 0.6%
Forecast: 0.6%
Previous: 0.9%
🫰 Monthly inflation matched forecasts but remains elevated.
• Keeps inflation concerns active.
• Supports higher-for-longer rate expectations.
📊 CPI y/y – 12:30 PM 🔴
Actual: 3.8%
Forecast: 3.7%
Previous: 3.3%
🫰 Annual inflation rose more than expected.
• Major bullish signal for USD.
• Negative for Gold and risk assets.
• Suggests inflation progress is slowing.
⚠️ Higher yearly CPI may push the Fed toward maintaining restrictive policy longer.
🏛 Fed Chair Nomination Vote 🔴
🫰 Market attention remains on broader Fed policy expectations rather than the vote itself.
🔔🔔 Market Impact Outlook
❄️ Core CPI and CPI y/y both exceeded expectations.
❄️ Inflation remains sticky and elevated.
❄️ USD likely to stay supported after the release.
❄️ Gold may face continued selling pressure if yields rise further.
⚠️ Expect strong volatility and possible liquidity sweeps during the New York session.
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