jobsdatashock

U.S. employment data fell short of expectations, leading to increased market anticipation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June. According to RTHK, this development caused both the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields to decline. The dollar index decreased by 0.2%, closing at 98.85, although it rose over 1% for the week.

On Friday, the euro appreciated by approximately 0.1% against the dollar, while the British pound increased by 0.4%. The dollar also gained 0.1% against the Japanese yen. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note briefly fell by more than 4 basis points to 4.105%, while the more rate-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield dropped by 8 basis points to 3.519%. Both yields later narrowed their declines, settling around 4.13% and 3.55%, respectively.

On Monday, the world woke up to a terrifying reality: oil prices didn’t just rise—they exploded. Brent crude, the international benchmark, surged by an eye-popping 30%, briefly touching a staggering $119 per barrel. It is a level of chaos not seen since the initial invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
In the middle of this high-stakes drama, one man has stepped back into the spotlight with a proposal that has left European leaders in a daze. Vladimir Putin, chairing a high-level meeting at the Kremlin, has made a move that no one saw coming so soon. With the Strait of Hormuz—the world’s most critical oil chokepoint—effectively slammed shut by the war in Iran, the West is suddenly gasping for air. Putin knows this. And now, he is offering a lifeline, but it comes with a heavy price.
"We are ready to work with Europeans again," Putin declared in a televised address that felt more like a chess move than a diplomatic gesture. His offer is simple yet haunting: Russia can turn the taps back on and flood Europe with the oil and gas it so desperately needs to keep the lights on and the factories running. But there is a catch. He is demanding "long-term, sustainable cooperation" and an end to what he calls "political pressure." In short, he wants the sanctions—the very tools Europe used to punish him for the Ukraine war—to vanish.
The suspense is killing the markets. For four years, Europe has fought tooth and nail to break its "addiction" to Russian energy, cutting reliance from 40% down to a mere 13%. They built new pipelines, signed new deals, and stood their ground. But as the Middle East burns and the $100-per-barrel mark becomes a painful reality, that resolve is being tested like never before. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has already broken ranks, urging the EU to suspend sanctions to stop the economic bleeding.
Is Europe ready to go back to the partner they tried so hard to leave? Or will they endure the freezing heights of record-breaking energy costs to keep their principles intact? The clock is ticking, and as the US-Israeli war on Iran rages on, the "off-ramp" Putin has provided looks more tempting—and more dangerous—by the hour.
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