美联储降息预期升温

📉 Why did it fall tonight? Many people are confused: hasn't the expectation of interest rate cuts increased?
The key issue remains the liquidity problem—looking at the global market, the answer is beginning to emerge.

The shift in capital flow often precedes the news, and the changes in the landscape are hidden in the details.
Stay observant, stay calm.

1. The expectation of interest rate cuts has increased, but the positive effects brought by the expectation of interest rate cuts seem to have been mostly consumed. Apart from optimism regarding the interest rate cut in December, there are also responses to the yen's interest rate hike.
2. The yield on 1-year short-term bonds has slightly increased. Clearly, tonight's data has not shown much optimism in the bond market. Normally, an increase in interest rate cut expectations would lead to a continued decline in 1-year short-term bond yields because short-term bonds are more sensitive to interest rates. The fact that they are rising instead of falling indicates that the market's expectation of a rate cut in December may have already peaked.
3. The yields on 10-year and 30-year long-term bonds have significantly increased. If the expectation of future interest rate cuts were the only factor, one should be buying U.S. bonds rather than selling them, which also indicates that the current long-bond market is not trading based on interest rate cut expectations.
4. There are two main factors driving the rise in long-term bond yields. Tonight's PCE data shows that although inflation did not rise in September, it still exhibits stickiness. If there are concerns about future inflation, this would stimulate the increase in long-term bond yields. Additionally, the expectation of the yen's interest rate hike continues to lead to the sale of U.S. bonds, capital flowing back to yen assets, dollar interest rate cuts, yen interest rate hikes, and the narrowing of interest rate differentials. Accelerated arbitrage trading may lead to a surge in Japanese bonds and U.S. long-term bond yields, and currently, Japanese bond yields are also rising rapidly.
5. Although the three major U.S. stock indices are rising, and the VIX index has dropped to around 15, the Russell 2000 index is still in decline. Clearly, the short-term risk appetite in the U.S. stock market is not overly optimistic, even though the VIX index is in an optimistic phase.
6. Overall summary: currently, the main factors affecting the financial market are gradually shifting from weakening interest rate cut expectations to expectations of yen interest rate hikes, capital liquidity shifts, and this includes BTC. Next week during the Asian trading session, it's also important to watch whether institutions will sell BTC, similar to the situation that occurred this Monday.
#加密市场观察 #美联储降息预期升温

#加密市场观察 #美联储降息预期升温
Tonight, the heavyweight data is coming. As of 20:30, the probability of interest rate cuts is: 87% (a decrease of 2% from yesterday's 89%).
The inflation indicators favored by the Federal Reserve, PCE and personal spending rate, as well as the consumer confidence index, will be announced simultaneously at 23:00 tonight, which is very noteworthy.
Personal spending rate: Previous value 0.6, expected 0.3. Lower than expected is favorable. (Published by the Ministry of Commerce, controlled by the U.S. government, generally won't have major issues)
PCE price index: The last piece of the puzzle for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, previous value 2.7, expected 2.8 (market expects moderate inflation increase). Above 2.8 is bearish, indicating inflation issues, and the probability of interest rate cuts will be suppressed.
Core PCE index: Expected 2.9, previous value 2.9, (remains unchanged).
Brothers: Don't rush to open positions, wait for the index to come out, confirm the market situation before taking strong action, don't rush for a moment. $BTC $ETH $BNB

$ETH Market Analysis and Insights!

The main trend is range-bound fluctuations, with the interest rate cut meeting being a key variable.

Currently, the overall market for #以太 is in a range-bound fluctuation between 3250–3050, with low probability of sharp rises or falls.

Short-term fluctuations are mainly influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut meeting on December 11 next week.

💥Key points to focus on:

1. Whether the interest rate cut basis points meet expectations — short-term fluctuations will quickly release following the meeting results;

2. The content of the speeches after the meeting — if the wording is cautious and uncertainty increases, the market may experience a brief pullback;

3. Institutional fund attitudes — some funds may exit early to observe, waiting for clearer interest rate cut timing to reposition.

From the market perspective, ETH is still running above the 15-minute moving average in the short term, with a gentle bullish structure maintained on the hourly chart.

In terms of operations, focus on buying on dips and maintaining a range-bound mindset, and it’s not advisable to chase highs for now.

Conservative investors can pay attention to the support reaction around 3060 below.

Overall conclusion: Focus on fluctuation repairs, with direction waiting for macro signals to confirm.

#ETH走势分析 #加密市场观察 #美联储降息预期升温

#圣诞行情 Hasett, if he takes charge of the Federal Reserve, will the crypto industry welcome a favorable policy wind?
#美联储降息预期升温 The suspense surrounding the Federal Reserve Chairman candidates is gradually rising, with Kevin Hasett's potential appointment becoming the most watched variable in the crypto space. Will this candidate, who is deeply connected to the crypto industry, become the industry's 'savior'?
As a shareholder and consultant of Coinbase with holdings exceeding a million dollars, Hasett's crypto-friendly stance is no longer a secret. More importantly, the White House Digital Asset Working Group that he led had outlined the government's crypto policy framework; if he takes the helm of the Federal Reserve, it is expected to push for a reshuffle of internal anti-crypto forces. As Custodia Bank CEO Caitlin Long stated, 'The Federal Reserve is set for significant changes.'
For the crypto market, the most direct benefit may come from interest rate cuts. Hasett, as an aggressive 'dove,' advocates for rapid and substantial rate cuts, and a low-interest-rate environment has always favored the performance of risk assets. Bitwise strategist Juan Leon bluntly stated that this impact is 'very favorable.' In addition, while the Federal Reserve does not directly regulate crypto assets, it controls the rules of banking services—loosening restrictions in areas such as custody, loans, and payment channels will open up critical service channels for crypto companies. Grayscale's research director Zach Pandl also acknowledges its 'marginally favorable' effect.
However, uncertainties remain. Hasett is only one of five candidates, and the final nomination is expected to be announced before #圣诞节 . However, it is undeniable that the market has begun to price in this policy dividend in advance. If he successfully takes office, the crypto industry may say goodbye to the dual pressure of regulatory ambiguity and tightening funds, ushering in a new development cycle.

Shadow Fed Chairman Hassett has begun his first substantial moves.

He has clearly called for the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points at next week's meeting, and this action, chosen during the Fed officials' mandated silence period, is no coincidence; it is a precise power grab—taking advantage of the fact that the actual chairman cannot speak, he directly benefits his own position by publicly addressing the market. Given the market's high sensitivity and immediate pricing in response to Hassett's remarks, Wall Street has essentially voted with its feet, effectively acknowledging that he is the next Fed chairman.

Trump's seemingly inconsistent attitude these past few days is, in fact, a high-level expectation management strategy. He is not hesitating; he is executing a meticulously planned process: warming up—announcing—shadow control—officially taking office.

The current shadow control phase is the most critical; it has set a perfect trap for Powell: if rates are cut next week, to some extent, it would be yielding to the shadow chairman's will, establishing Hassett's authority in advance, and allowing Trump to take control of the Fed; if rates are not cut, any future economic fluctuations will become ammunition for Trump’s team to attack Powell.

This entire set of combined tactics aims to gradually desensitize the market and adapt to the new power logic (shifting from reliance on data to reliance on politics), ensuring a strong posture to maintain control, thereby clearing all obstacles and ultimately smoothly promoting a candidate that aligns with his wishes to the Fed chairman's position.

Walking alone can be lonely; pay attention to me, unlock more spot contract strategies in the chat room below, do not be a mere participant in the bull market, but a victor in the bull market! #美联储降息预期升温

Next week's outlook focuses on three points:

1. Interest rate cuts are coming, but surprises are unlikely.

· Definitely a cut: The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points next week.
· The key is the follow-up: The market is betting on three significant cuts in 2026, while the Fed has only hinted at two. If the Fed does not change its stance (which is very likely), it will be "good news fully priced in," making the market prone to a drop.

2. Be cautious of the Bank of Japan "withdrawing liquidity."

· Japan is likely to tighten monetary policy simultaneously, leading to a global dollar influx back to Japan.
· Result: This could offset some of the easing effect from the Fed's rate cuts, potentially triggering simultaneous declines in U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, and other global assets, increasing volatility.

3. Gold and A-shares: Short-term fluctuations, waiting for buying opportunities.

· Gold: After the rate cut is implemented, it could easily drop sharply due to "expectations being fulfilled" and the liquidity withdrawal from Japan. However, this drop may present an opportunity for positioning ahead of the bull market in 2026.
· A-shares (in the tight stone field): Being pulled in two directions by internal policies and external liquidity withdrawal, the direction choice will be delayed. We need to wait for external storms to pass for internal forces to take the lead.

Summary: Next week is a "high volatility" week, and operations should be "shock-proof."

· Don't chase highs: All good news has already been priced in.
· Wait for a pullback: Focus on preventing a market reversal and decline after the announcement.
· Think long-term: Short-term fluctuations are preparing for the real differentiated bull market in 2026, consider buying only after significant drops. #美联储降息预期升温

#美联储降息预期升温 【Don't Panic! Even if 'Trump's Person' Becomes the Head of the Federal Reserve, It’s Hard to Crazy Cut Interest Rates🚨】

Attention, onlookers! Trump has recently hinted wildly: the preferred candidate for the Federal Reserve chair has been locked in — White House economic advisor Hassett🔥 But Wall Street giant PGIM directly poured cold water: even if he takes office, he can't achieve the 'lightning rate cut' that Trump wants! Why? 👇

⚠️ Core Highlight: The Federal Reserve is not decided by one person!
PGIM bigwig Gregory Peters emphasized: interest rate decisions are made by a collective vote of the FOMC committee; the head must unite everyone through persuasion – and Hassett 'probably doesn't have that credibility'! 😮 The bond market has quietly factored in risk premiums, worried about the independence of the Federal Reserve…

📉 Market Evidence: Is the bond market steady as a rock?

· The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries is at 4.08%, with the 2-year rising by 1 basis point
· Hassett defended himself: recent U.S. Treasury auctions have been stable, showing that the market is not afraid!
· But investors have expressed concerns to the Treasury Department… on the surface calm, undercurrents are surging🌊

🎯 Traders have acted: betting on 'accelerated rate cuts' in advance
Despite many doubts, Hassett is after all a 'man of Trump’s low-interest rate policy'. Some traders are starting to increase positions, betting that the Federal Reserve will cut rates earlier – is this a bet on Trump, or on the system? 🤔

💡 Key Reminder: Global bonds are in a 'sensitive period'
Peters warned: concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve are causing risk premiums to seep into sovereign bonds of various countries, especially long-term bonds which are particularly vulnerable! The global fixed income market is watching this big show in the U.S.…

🌟 In a nutshell:
The president can change the head, but cannot change the rules of the game at the Federal Reserve – the speed of rate cuts ultimately depends on data and committee votes, not just one person's face!

👉 Do you think the independence of the Federal Reserve will be broken? Feel free to engage! $ZEC

$GIGGLE

$PIEVERSE

😍For newcomers in the cryptocurrency world, I have three sentences to say. Each one could save your life.

$ETH ① The crypto world is not a quick way to get rich; it is a game of high volatility.

What you earn is never "money that always rises," but rather money from emotional cycles.

$BNB When it rises, it rises sharply; when it falls, it makes even less sense.

So the first lesson—learn to survive:

$SOL Always leave room in your position.

Don't go all in, don't gamble.

Don't stake your future life on a single judgment.

If you can survive, you've already outlasted half of the people.

② Always prioritize mainstream options, stay away from projects you don't understand.

The most common pitfall for beginners is:

"× times the divine coin," "friend recommendation," "group signals."

Remember this:

If you don't understand it, don't touch it; that's the best risk control.

Mainstream grows slowly, but steadily; bubbles grow quickly, but can go to zero.

For newcomers, stability is always more valuable than excitement.

③ Making money relies on the market, losing money relies on operations.

Most people don't lose to the market, but to themselves.

You've probably experienced:

Chasing after a small rise, cutting losses only after a drop, opening contracts impulsively due to emotions.

If you want to survive long in the crypto world, remember three things:

Go with the trend, don’t guess tops and bottoms.

Invest in batches, don’t go all in.

Emotional stability is more important than technical skills.

The crypto world is not about who can rush the fastest,

but about who can stay the steadiest.

#美联储降息预期升温 #加密市场观察 #ETH走势分析

$PIPPIN is about to break the historical high, Summoner's Rift, your emperor has returned 🚀🚀🚀

Fortune Star has been saying in the square that this coin is meant to pull back and go long, even though there are countless negative messages in the square and many people are shorting it, PIPPIN is going against the trend, and Fortune Star has always firmly believed in it.

If you want to know the target, I can only say look at 1 dollar, you think the top is actually the bottom, don’t hesitate, every pullback is an opportunity to go long.

If you want to get firsthand information, come to Fortune Star chat room #特朗普加密新政 #美联储降息预期升温 #美SEC推动加密创新监管

10 Years of Trading Experience Summary: The 4 Stages of Cryptocurrency Traders, Which Level Are You At?

In the cryptocurrency world, there is no distinction between day and night; wealth and destruction fly together! Some become wealthy in an instant, while others become poor just as quickly. But life and death are not determined by the market, but by the level you are at!

I went from 2 million to 60 million, traversing the cryptocurrency cycles, and comprehended the 4 major levels:

Level One: Newbie — Emotional Slaughter
Entering the market is shocking, buying on dips and selling on rises, encountering flash crashes at night, and going mad between "cutting losses" and "holding on," ultimately perishing before dawn.
Truth: 90% of liquidations are due to emotional loss of control, unrelated to technology!

Level Two: Advanced — Glimpsing Trends
After several rounds of heavy losses, I learned to see the big picture and identify key positions to strike, realizing that the path to profit does not lie in frequent trading.

Level Three: Expert — System Dominance
Build a trading system, set profit and loss limits, sleep without worries, and no longer be troubled by the market.

Level Four: Despair — The Soul of Recovery
Heavy positions, chasing highs, high leverage, trapped in the illusion of recovery, repeatedly harvested, falling into the abyss of anxiety.
Warning: If at this level, stop immediately! Correct your direction to find a way out.

Recognizing the level you are at is the key to breaking through the chaos. Do not rely on luck; upgrade your understanding and maintain long-term commitment to achieve a comeback!
#比特币VS代币化黄金 #加密市场观察 #美联储降息预期升温

$PIPPIN I mentioned this morning that breaking through the trendline allows us to see the previous high, which has now reached the target. It has increased by about 20%, and the operator is quite strong. After gathering some strength, it should be able to break the previous high. When this fan first found me, he was underwater by 5,000 U, and in about a week, I helped him break even, and he is still in profit now. He has already taken out half and left half to continue trading, aiming for a bountiful year this year.
#加密市场观察 $1000LUNC #美联储重启降息步伐 $XNY #美联储降息预期升温

36 years old Zhejiang native has been in Beijing for 6 years, making a comeback in the cryptocurrency world: turning a principal of 200,000 into an eight-digit asset

At 36 years old, I am a native of Zhejiang, and I have now firmly settled in Beijing, with two properties: one to ensure my family's stability and another to support my daily life.

This solid confidence comes from my 6 years of hard work in the cryptocurrency world, turning more than 200,000 in principal into an eight-digit asset.

No one would have thought that when I started, I had hit rock bottom, and my principal of over 200,000 once dropped to only 50,000.

But I didn’t switch tracks; I relied solely on a “simple method” and persevered—avoiding trends, not playing tricks, and firmly sticking to a rolling inventory logic.

During the most intense market wave, my bottom position increased 400 times in 4 months, and my account balance surged to 40 million. Behind this were countless sleepless nights staring at K-lines.

Over the years of full-time trading, I printed out my life-saving rules, covered my computer desk and bedside with them, constantly reminding myself not to be swayed by greed.

In my view, making money in the cryptocurrency world has no mystique; mindset is far more important than skills. With a small principal, it’s crucial to cherish it; capturing a major rise once a year is enough, and I will never easily go all in.

If one’s understanding doesn’t keep up, no matter how much one earns, it will eventually be given back. It’s necessary to practice on a simulated account and train the mind on a real account; leave enough liquidity for medium to long-term positions, sell when prices rise, buy when they fall, and for short-term trades, only choose cryptocurrencies with high trading volumes. If the direction is wrong, one must stop losses immediately.

Breaking free from the curse of 7 losses, 2 breakevens, and 1 gain in the cryptocurrency world is simply about focusing on maintaining one’s own trading system.

Making money in cryptocurrency may rely on luck, but long-term profitability certainly depends on rules.

If you want to keep up with the market rhythm without getting lost, it’s advisable to plan alongside Brother Yi.

#加密市场观察
#美联储降息预期升温

Ethereum 3040–3080 is a stable structure during this sideways movement, rather than a struggle after a breakdown. The price is running close to the middle of the Bollinger Bands, and the bulls are still maintaining the rhythm. The MACD shows a shortening of the red bars at a low level, which forms a divergence with the price stabilization, indicating a positive phenomenon. Although the trading volume is not large, it is relatively more stable compared to BTC and SOL.

The current structure is classified as a "strong consolidation," waiting for Bitcoin to provide direction.
Once Bitcoin stabilizes above 90k, or any strong bullish candle drives sentiment, ETH will be among the first mainstream coins to follow the rise.

Focus on the breakout nodes at 3150–3200 above.
As long as it does not fall below 2970, this is a healthy consolidation. $ETH #ETH走势分析 #美联储降息 #美联储降息预期升温

Is this our mom fishing for law enforcement?🎣😱😱😱$BTC $ETH #美联储降息预期升温

Brothers, the market has indeed been disgusting these past few days, going up a bit and then crashing down, pulling people's emotions like a roller coaster. Yesterday, a new follower asked me, 'I only have 2000U, can I still turn it around?'

I told him that the size of the principal has never been the key; the crucial part is whether you can roll your position.

For retail investors at this stage, rolling positions and turning things around is the fastest method.

When we originally reached that 140,000U, it wasn't based on luck, but entirely on rhythm.
It wasn't about rushing in randomly, nor staring at the screen every day, but waiting for that most critical direction.

I still remember that time before BTC broke through, I threw in a small position ahead of time. Once the direction was clear, I held on tight.

Not placing orders during a volatile period is a hard rule. Random actions just mean handing out your money.
As for adding positions, many people tend to do the opposite: adding when losing and closing immediately when profitable. The result is that they end up with smaller and smaller amounts.

Our rhythm is: first, use a very small position to test the waters; as long as the direction is right and profits open up, then slowly increase.

Once the floating profit is substantial, add once more. This way, the capital is pushed upward, and you won’t be scared out by minor fluctuations.

As for taking profits, we never do it 'in one go.'
First, lock in a portion to give yourself confidence;
Then let the remaining position protect the cost, not afraid of being washed out;
Finally, leave a bit of position to let the profits extend by themselves.
This way, wherever the market goes, the profits will pile up there.

Rolling positions is like dancing on the edge of a knife; you can't afford to miss a step.
But if the rhythm is steady, starting with 2000U can lead to a position that others can't even imagine.

These aren't just stories; this is the process I've figured out over the past decade.
The current volatility, in fact, is a stage for those who know how to roll positions.

In this market, it's very hard to go on relying on just one person.
Now, I have a well-maintained road here; will you walk it?

#美联储降息预期升温 #山寨季将至？ #特朗普加密新政 $B $XNY

11.6 Analysis of Concubine in the Afternoon:

An excellent opportunity to go long has emerged! The price has tested the key support zone (corresponding to the previous rising platform), trading volume is steadily increasing, and the MA7 is about to cross above the MA30 to form a golden cross, with rebound momentum continuously accumulating! The defense range is clear, an effective breach indicates a stop loss, and the risk-reward ratio reaches 1:3, providing maximum cost-effectiveness and high speculative value!

Operation suggestion: 3000～3010, Target: 3050～3100
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#ETH走势分析 #加密市场观察 #美联储降息预期升温

$DOGE ,$币安人生 ,$SHIB Political cycles and market cycles potential overlap
🔥🔥🔥 Trump, as a focal figure, has political activities that themselves are a hot cycle lasting several months. The narrative of Trump's Dogecoin Co nan is deeply tied to this political cycle and is expected to continue to garner event-driven attention for a longer period! #美联储降息预期升温 #美SEC和CFTC加密监管合作