降息预测

The master of rolling warehouses is me. No risk-taking, capital preservation, no focus on current profits, but a good trend step by step. 3000u a day turns into 1.2wu in an instant. Those who want to get rich come.
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The probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut has reached 88.8%～#降息预测

Powell's speech at Stanford this morning did not include any comments on the economy or monetary policy.
This is normal, as there is a quiet period (blackout period) from now until the next Federal Reserve meeting, during which all officials, including Powell, cannot discuss monetary policy. #鲍威尔讲话
Traders judge: Powell is likely to serve until the end of his term in May next year. However, there are three more FOMC meetings from January to May, and there are still many variables in the final outcome. #降息预测

Interest rate cuts are inevitable, we just need to hold on for another month or two
#BTC再创新高
#降息预测

"Societe Generale warns: The Fed is about to cut interest rates, what will be the fate of the US dollar?"
Analysts at Societe Generale dropped a bombshell: The Fed may press the interest rate cut button in September, but don't worry, the US dollar will not plummet. Foreign exchange strategists point out that although the strong rebound of the US dollar in 2021-2022 provides room for a possible decline, unless the US economy slows down far more than expected, interest rates are unlikely to fall back to pre-epidemic levels.

Expectations of interest rate cuts:
The September interest rate cut is imminent, and the market is holding its breath.

US dollar stability:
Even if interest rates are cut, the depreciation of the US dollar will be limited, showing its resilience as a safe-haven currency.

Yen under pressure:
The biggest fluctuation may be in the US dollar-yen exchange rate, which is expected to fall from 156.197 to 140 by early 2025.

What do you think of Societe Generale's analysis?
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Interest rate cuts are inevitable. Combined with the bull market cycle of Bitcoin halving, since the macro and cyclical trends have been determined, those who are short can buy high-quality altcoins in batches;

Positions have been full in March, so don't move them. Frequent car changes are common situations of missing out on the market and losing capital;

There is no need to focus on the current fluctuations and keep yourself in a short position. Fixed investment is the key.

If you are losing money now and don't know what to do, you can click me to follow and click my avatar to find me at any time. All contract spot gameplay is shared. Just to increase fans #第55期新币挖矿IO #bnb历史新高 #山寨季何时到来？ #降息预测

#降息预测
Among the 39 economists surveyed,
59% believe that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in July,
while 13% feel that a hike may occur as early as May.
At the same time, over 65% of economists stated that:
the Bank of Japan will raise the key interest rate to 0.75% in the third quarter.

Additionally, 61 economists unanimously agree that the Bank of Japan will maintain the current key interest rate of 0.50% on March 19.

According to the median forecast, the Bank of Japan's interest rate is expected to reach 1.00% by the end of March 2026, which aligns with the survey results from last November.

Latest reports from the cryptocurrency circle
★The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates once this year, and Bitcoin has fallen with the stock market
★OKXWeb3 wallet is now connected to the Chiliz and BOB networks
★Bernstein analysts raised the target price of Bitcoin to $200,000 by the end of 2025
★Bitget Wealth Management Treasure USDT current interest rate soared in a short period of time, temporarily reported
36.42% APR
★Greenpeace: Wall Street must be responsible for Bitcoin mining emissions
★Coolpad Group signed a HK$100 million contract to purchase crypto mining servers this month★Bernstein gave MicroStrategy an "outperform" rating, saying Bitcoin could reach $1 million in 10 years
#BTC☀ #降息预测

The remarks of the Fed governor shocked the market, and the price of Bitcoin plummeted by 3,000 points, and the market volatility was highlighted again.

Recently, the remarks of the Fed governor in a public interview were like a bombshell, which instantly caused a violent shock in the global financial market. The governor made it clear that the expectation of a rate cut in 2024 was not a fact that was set in stone. This unexpected statement immediately attracted widespread attention and discussion in the market.

Immediately afterwards, the Bitcoin (BTC) market responded quickly and strongly to this. The price of BTC, which was originally hovering around 63,400 points, plummeted in a short period of time and directly fell to 60,255 points, evaporating an astonishing 3,000 points in a short period of time.

In the past, the Bitcoin market often used traditional narratives such as halving and upgrading to influence price trends. However, with the passage of time, market sentiment and the weathervane of the global financial market-the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, have gradually become important factors affecting the price of BTC. The remarks of the Fed governor this time undoubtedly proved this again.

At present, the Bitcoin market is in a subtle V-shaped reversal market, with the forces of both long and short sides intertwined, and the market may usher in a change at any time. In this context, we should observe market dynamics more carefully and control risks reasonably to avoid losses in market fluctuations.

In the days to come, I will continue to pay close attention to market dynamics and provide you with timely and accurate information and analysis.
#BTC走势分析 #5月市场关键事件 #降息预测 #eth二饼

Recent statements by several ECB officials and the latest forecasts from multiple institutions show that the ECB is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this Thursday. How long can the Fed hold out? Last year, many so-called cryptocurrency experts predicted that around April this year would be the lowest point of this bull market, and Bitcoin would fall below $20,000. As a result, it took off in October last year, which was beyond everyone's expectations, and a group of short-selling players were blown up. My long orders in July are still generating income (see screenshot). Now there is another consensus among the big bulls that October next year will be the high point of this bull market. If most people think so, it will definitely not happen. Yesterday, it was said that the Federal Reserve will release 2.3 trillion US dollars to the market before September 30 this year. In addition, in the year of the US election, in order to attract voters, lowering interest rates to cater to voters and rising stock prices are a game that every government plays. This round of halving bull market will not reach its highest point in October next year as in the old script. It will definitely be beyond everyone's expectations and come early. How do you plan? Think clearly! #降息预测 #牛市进展

Most regional Fed officials are not optimistic about a rate cut in December

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve officials have recently been intensively discussing monetary policy. "The Fed's megaphone" Nick Timiraos stated that currently, four voting regional Fed presidents are not actively pushing for another rate cut in December. These four presidents are Collins from the Boston Fed, Musalem from the St. Louis Fed, Goolsbee from the Chicago Fed, and Schmidt from the Kansas Fed, who voted against the rate cut decision in October. #降息预测

Detailed explanation of July non-farm payrolls, must read!!!
Today's non-farm payrolls report surprised the market. Only 114,000 new jobs were created in July, the lowest record in three and a half years, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, a three-year high, triggering the Sam's Rule recession indicator. Panic spread, and traders began to bet on a 50 basis point rate cut in September, and the rate cut is expected to exceed 110 basis points this year.

In terms of specific data, non-farm payrolls increased by 114,000 in July, far below the expected 175,000. The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% last month to 4.3%. Wage growth slowed, with hourly wages rising by 0.2% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year, both lower than expected.

After the data was released, U.S. stock futures fell sharply in the short term, with Nasdaq futures falling by more than 2%, S&P 500 futures falling by 1.6%, and Dow futures falling by 1.2%. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell by 19 basis points to 3.79% at one point, and the U.S. dollar index also fell.

Despite the strong performance of the labor market in the past two years, it now seems that the Fed is more likely to cut interest rates in September to prevent the labor market from slowing further. Clark Bellin, chief investment officer of Bellwether Wealth, said that the Fed must cut interest rates in September to prevent the labor market from slowing further.

The rise in unemployment has triggered the Sam rule, an indicator that has predicted recessions with 100% accuracy since 1970. But some analysts believe that this does not necessarily mean that the economy has entered a recession, but is just an early warning sign that the economy will weaken further.

In terms of employment structure, employment in healthcare, construction, transportation and warehousing continued to increase in July, but the information industry lost 20,000 jobs. Government employment growth slowed down, and other major industries did not change much.

#就业数据 #经济衰退 #市场分析 #美联储何时降息？ #降息预测

Mochi Brother is live now
#降息预测

#BTC

After the pin is inserted, the market will fluctuate sideways
The hourly level will repair the indicator to stop the decline in the short term
However, you can buy in batches for layout or short-term
It is definitely not the time for you to cut losses
Short-term receive four-hour high-sell and low-buy in batches
For layout, it depends on your own position and how many layers of warehouse you have now
If it falls, there is still U and if it rises, there is currency
For the rest, give time to exchange profits
#BTC#比特币减半 #降息预测

Sleepless Nights in the Financial Circle
Are you betting on dovish or hawkish policies? See whose predictions are accurate and witness key moments in finance! #降息预测

⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️Tonight's volatility may occur after Powell's "verbal battle" on Capitol Hill at 10 PM

Powell is expected to cautiously adhere to the message he conveyed last week, when he stated that the Fed is "in a good position to wait and learn more about where the economy might be headed" before considering any interest rate changes.
"We want to get more data, and at the same time we can do this because the economy is still in a strong state," Powell told reporters last week. "Ultimately, the costs of tariffs have to be paid, and part of that will fall on the end consumer."

So far, the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have not led to the price increases and rising unemployment that policymakers warned about. In fact, economists expect this week’s data to show that the Fed's preferred core inflation measure rose only 0.1% in May, marking the third consecutive month of such a modest increase, which would be the mildest inflation growth over three months since 2020.

Two Fed governors, Waller and Bowman, have both indicated that the impact of tariffs on prices may be temporary, and they may support a rate cut in July.
#鲍威尔半年度货币政策证词 #加密市场反弹 #以色列伊朗冲突 #波段交易策略 #降息预测

On July 25, according to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 93.3%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 6.7%.
The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by September is 0%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 89.6%, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 10.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point rate cut is 0.3%
#降息预期 #降息预测