黄金

12.8 AM Gold XAUUSD Analysis 💙
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News:
The expectation of a 'hawkish rate cut' from the Federal Reserve has become the main pressure point, with the market largely pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut at the Federal Reserve's meeting on December 10 (current probability about 89%). However, concerns over a 'hawkish rate cut' continue to simmer—investors expect the Federal Reserve may signal a tightening stance, driving the dollar index to rebound to 99.07 in the Asian market, directly suppressing the price of gold denominated in dollars.

Technical Analysis:

From the 1-hour timeframe, gold prices are currently facing strong resistance around the 4200 level. After quickly retreating from a peak of 4211.27 yesterday, today’s Asian session is trading near 4193, failing to effectively break above this resistance level, with short-term rebound momentum continuing to converge. The current candlestick is oscillating in a reduced volume range between 4190-4200, showing a weak recovery rhythm after a sharp decline.

Operational Suggestion:
Gold is expected to rise near 4180-4190 North ⬆️
🎯: Around 4210-4220

Despite ongoing geopolitical risks such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and China-U.S. trade discussions, the current market focus is on Federal Reserve policy expectations. The impact of geopolitical events on safe-haven assets has been significantly diluted, failing to provide effective support for gold prices.

The content is actionable, keep a close eye on the levels without hesitation. Friends who are unsure, quickly pay attention and feel free to ask Sister Fei anytime.
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The Reserve Bank of Australia leans hawkish: Policies have room to maneuver, asset differentiation shows volatility

On December 9, RBA Governor Philip Lowe released hawkish signals during a press conference, becoming a key variable in the market that day: his core statement focused on "inflation risks"—clearly indicating that current inflation pressures are biased upwards. Although the meeting did not formally discuss interest rate hike or cut options, it did mention the "possibility of tightening policies" and pointed out that "if inflation remains high, an interest rate hike will be considered"; he also emphasized that the policy framework is "data-driven + decisions made in consecutive meetings," without providing a clear timetable for interest rate hikes.

This statement has a differentiated impact on different assets:
For gold and silver, the short-term logic is "increased expectations of interest rate hikes → passive strengthening of the dollar → pressure on non-USD assets," but since Lowe did not anchor the timing of interest rate hikes, the hawkish tone leaves enough buffer space. Gold and silver are unlikely to experience a one-sided decline and will most likely maintain a high level of volatility. Subsequent tracking of the RBA's focus on "inflation data (CPI)" and "employment data (unemployment rate, new jobs)" is essential, as these two indicators will directly determine the strength of the policy hawkishness.

For crude oil, the impact of policy is relatively minor: although a stronger dollar slightly suppresses crude oil priced in dollars, the core pricing logic of crude oil still anchors on supply and demand—factors like Iraq's plan to increase crude oil production and supply disruptions in the Black Sea (geopolitical risks) dominate the market. The policy will only amplify short-term fluctuations and will not change the "supply-demand-driven volatility pattern."

Essentially, this hawkish stance by the RBA is not a "strong tightening signal," but rather a combination of "inflation warning + policy flexibility": it responds to high inflation risks while avoiding excessive tightening expectations in the market. Reflected in the asset side, it means "no one-sided trend, with localized volatility"—gold and silver need to await data to clarify policy direction, while crude oil continues to revolve around supply and demand games, all within a "waiting for new variables" volatility cycle. #黄金 #原油 #比特币VS代币化黄金 $BTC $ETH #美联储重启降息步伐

12.9 Tuesday Gold Lunch

The long position from the morning has successfully exited with profits, and the price in the afternoon has plunged back to the 4174 level. This drop is not an extension of a bearish trend, but a typical false breakdown washout action, which clears floating chips through a deep pullback, paving the way for subsequent upward movement. Such tactics are extremely common in the early stages of trend reversals.

From a technical perspective, the 4174 area is close to the previous bottom support level, with strong buying momentum. After a quick drop, the price did not exhibit a sustained break, but instead showed signs of stabilization, with short-term rebound momentum quietly accumulating. Combined with the moving average system and changes in trading volume, the current position is an excellent point for bullish layout, and the upside potential has been fully opened.

Current price operation suggestion: Buy directly at 4176, with a stop loss below 4168, aiming firmly for 4230, with no need for repeated profit-taking along the way, holding the position to await the target to be realized. #黄金

Veteran Traders in the Crypto World Transition to Gold Trading: A Steady Path to Profitable Returns

In the trading career within the crypto world, enduring sleepless nights, bearing the pain of sudden market crashes, and experiencing the agony of buying high and getting stuck, it wasn't until I turned to gold that I truly understood the essence of 'stability'.

Crypto market trends rely on emotions and capital speculation, with wild fluctuations being unpredictable, and project teams disappearing or unexpected black swan events occurring regularly, making trading feel like walking on thin ice; gold, on the other hand, is entirely different. As a global hard currency, its price fluctuations are anchored to clear logic such as inflation data, Federal Reserve policies, and geopolitical conflicts, with distinct and recognizable trend trajectories, devoid of irrational extreme volatility.

More importantly, the strict trading discipline developed in the crypto world, including stop-loss and take-profit strategies, position management, and trend analysis, translates into a powerful advantage in the gold market—there’s no need to gamble on news or guess directions; just follow the macro trends, and you can securely hold onto profits. From the heart-pounding speculative games to evidence-based steady trading, the gold market is where seasoned traders find their profitable haven. #黄金

12.9 Tuesday Gold Morning Trend

Current spot gold price is 4195.08, showing a stabilization and rebound trend at the 5-minute level, with the price standing above the short-term moving averages (5MA/10MA). The MACD indicator has formed a golden cross and the red bars are expanding, with 9% of the funds favoring long positions. The bullish momentum is dominant in the short term. Combined with the daily level, gold is still in a high-level oscillation range, with the support zone at 4180-4188 being validated multiple times, providing a safety margin for bullish positioning.

Operating Suggestion

Go long around 4190-4194, with a stop loss at 4180. The initial target is 4210, and after breaking through, look towards the resistance level of 4217-4220. #黄金

12.9 Tuesday Gold Evening

In terms of operation, near 4200, a small position can be established, targeting 4220. If 4235 breaks, continue to look at 4260. #黄金

币圈老韭菜跨界黄金：用交易纪律实现降维稳健盈利

币圈老韭菜深耕市场多年，熬过深夜盯盘的疲惫，扛过插针爆仓的剧痛，尝过追高被套的无奈，直到跨界布局黄金交易，才真正走出投机博弈的焦虑，解锁稳健盈利的新路径。

币圈与黄金市场的交易逻辑有着天壤之别：币圈行情高度依赖资金炒作与市场情绪，暴涨暴跌毫无规律可循，项目方跑路、黑天鹅事件频发，每一笔交易都如履薄冰，盈利全靠运气博弈；而黄金作为全球公认的硬通货，其涨跌始终锚定清晰的核心逻辑——通胀数据波动、美联储政策转向、全球地缘冲突、各国央行购金动作等，趋势轨迹可预判、可追踪，无无厘头极端波动，交易更具确定性。

真正的降维打击，源于币圈历练出的硬核交易能力。在币圈的残酷博弈中，老韭菜早已练就严格止损止盈、科学仓位管理、精准趋势研判的交易纪律，这些在币圈保命的核心技能，在黄金市场成为盈利利器。无需赌消息、猜走向，不必跟风追涨杀跌，只需依托宏观逻辑，顺着黄金趋势布局，就能规避盲目投机的风险，将盈利稳稳握在手中。

从币圈心惊肉跳的短期投机，到黄金市场有据可依的长期稳健交易，不是赛道的简单切换，而是交易认知的升级。对资深交易者而言，黄金市场没有币圈的疯狂博弈，却有确定性的盈利空间，是褪去浮躁后，实现财富稳步增值的终极归宿。
#黄金 #美联储重启降息步伐 #加密市场观察 $BTC $ETH

12.9 Gold Afternoon Real-Time Strategy: Pullback to Support Level, Bullish Layout Just in Time

Gold is currently at 4175.23, slightly falling from the earlier opening of 4191.58, just touching the support range of 4165-75 indicated earlier, in line with the idea of "buying on the pullback."

From the current 15-minute chart trend, the price has temporarily found support after dropping to 4170.06, and the short-term fluctuation adjustment is just the window for laying out buy orders: aggressive traders can enter long positions directly around 4175, and if it pulls back to the 4165-70 range, they can add to their positions, with a stop loss set at 4157, and the initial target looking at the 4200 level, breaking above will continue to look at the 4225-30 resistance level.

The technical aspect of the 4-hour chart shows a bullish fluctuation pattern has not changed, with effective support below and a clear continuation of the bullish trend, thus a pullback now is a buying opportunity, just keep the rhythm and hold patiently. #比特币VS代币化黄金 #黄金 $BTC $ETH

🇺🇸December US interest rate cut + 🇯🇵Japan interest rate hike double impact

Is gold standing at the starting point of a new trend?

The focus of the financial market in December is undoubtedly: US interest rate cut, Japan interest rate hike. These two seemingly independent events are actually shaping the next important trend in gold together.

Firstly, the official start of the US interest rate cut cycle means the end of the dollar's strong cycle, with real interest rates declining significantly lowering the cost of holding gold, which benefits gold naturally. Historically, every interest rate cut cycle has brought about a mid-term rise in gold, with investors switching their risk preferences and liquidity becoming abundant again, which is the biggest support for gold prices.

On the other hand, although the Japanese central bank's interest rate hike is small in magnitude, its symbolic significance is very strong — major global central banks are shifting from tightening to policy rebalancing. The rise in Japanese bond yields will attract some capital from the dollar to the yen, putting pressure on the dollar index and dispersing liquidity, which also positively impacts gold. At the same time, the repatriation of Japanese funds and the unlocking of carry trades will increase the demand for global safe-haven assets, making gold the natural first choice.

When the US interest rate cut + Japan interest rate hike occur simultaneously, the market will face a common result:
👉 Global liquidity warming + Dollar weakening → Precious metals welcome trend-level support

Short-term volatility will still exist, but in terms of mid-term structure, the bullish foundation for gold is more solid than at any time in the past. If the market experiences a pullback next, it looks more like an opportunity to position for the next trend rather than a risk point.

The end-of-year market is often a period for funds to position in advance, and gold is in a window where fundamentals, policies, and macro expectations are completely resonating. Those who are steady will choose to focus on the trend amidst the noise, rather than every shake of the K-line.
#比特币VS代币化黄金 #黄金

Yesterday, gold showed a typical "first rise then fall" volatility trend. After opening at 4197.4 in the morning, it quickly surged, reaching a daily high of 4219.1. However, the bulls lacked follow-up momentum, and the market subsequently retreated, dropping to a low of 4175.9. This pattern highlights that the current market's long and short positions are in a stalemate, making it difficult to identify a clear trend in the short term, with a high probability of continuing the volatility pattern.

Short-term long positions: can be arranged in the 4180-4190 range, with targets looking at 4220-4230.
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Short-term short positions: can enter when the market rebounds to the 4230-4237 range, with targets looking down at 4200-4190#比特币VS代币化黄金 #黄金 #黄金下跌

#黄金 Russia's 2026 Gold Export Restrictions: Long-term Support for Gold Prices, Short-term Market Stability

On December 8, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak announced the policy of "restricting gold bar exports starting in 2026," which has become a key long-term variable in the gold market. This measure targets not only the global market but also includes member countries of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) within its restrictions. The core aim is to block the outflow of cash rubles and gold bars of unknown origin from Russia, essentially strengthening the control over domestic currency and assets by regulating the circulation of precious metals.

From a market impact perspective, as one of the world's major gold-exporting countries, Russia's export restrictions will have a direct long-term effect on global gold supply: although the policy will not take effect until 2026, the expectation of "reduced circulation of gold bars in the next two years" has already formed. This effectively adds a "long-term support buff" to gold prices—the logic of supply contraction will become an invisible support for future price increases, especially against the backdrop of global de-dollarization and increased geopolitical volatility, where the scarcity premium of gold will become more pronounced.

However, there is no need for excessive short-term reactions: the two-year buffer period means that the current global gold circulation will not immediately tighten, combined with the fact that gold is currently in a high-level consolidation phase. The policy news is unlikely to disrupt the existing rhythm, and the market will likely maintain a range-bound fluctuation.

Yet, the signal significance of this policy far exceeds its short-term impact: it reaffirms gold's core position in the asset layout of major powers—whether it is Russia strengthening the safety of local assets by restricting exports or the global market's expectation of reduced gold supply, both point to the same conclusion: the long-term value of gold will only increase with growing global uncertainty, a signal that investors should incorporate into their core logic for long-term asset allocation. #比特币VS代币化黄金 #加密市场观察 $BTC $ETH

The fluctuation has not broken, and the market is waiting for a trigger point

Yesterday, the gold price fluctuated repeatedly within the range of 4218–4176, ultimately closing at 4190, and the overall structure remains weakly consolidated. Geopolitical events in the Middle East and Asia, the Russian side's upcoming restrictions on gold bar exports, and the Federal Reserve's candidates suggesting a bias towards interest rate cuts have not provided a clear direction for the market; gold remains in a 'waiting for a breakthrough' stage in the short term.

From the chart perspective: the daily line has closed negatively for two consecutive days, but it has not undermined the structural foundation of the previous bullish trend; the small-scale fluctuation range is narrowing, and the choice of direction is approaching; silver is still consolidating at a high level, providing certain support signals for gold; both bullish and bearish news coexist, with funds tending to wait for clearer guidance from the Federal Reserve.

The market has not weakened to the point of trend reversal, nor has it strengthened enough to confirm a breakout; it is a typical consolidation fluctuation situation. Before a breakout occurs, chasing highs and lows is not a good choice.
Resistance: 4220, 4250
Support: 4160, 4100 (strong mid-line support)

As long as 4160 is not lost, the bullish trend structure still exists.

Trading Suggestions

Bulls should pay attention to the 4160–4100 structural support zone; if maintained, it will provide opportunities for medium-term bulls, with a target focus on 4250+.

Bears should watch the short pressure zone near 4220; it can be shorted until a breakout occurs.

Summary

Gold is weak in the short term, but the structure is not broken; the news is slightly bullish but has not formed a driving force; silver is consolidating at a high level, providing implicit support for gold prices; the real explosive point of the market still requires a breakout from the range.

In the absence of direction, prioritize rhythm in trading, then direction.
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#比特币VS代币化黄金 #黄金

Gold breaks 4200, silver approaches 59! Three major drivers ignite the precious metals bull market

On the morning of December 8, spot gold stabilized at a historical high of 4200 USD/ounce, and silver approached 59 USD, with the bull market driven by three core logics:

1. Full expectation of Fed rate cuts: The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December's rate decision exceeds 86%, reducing the cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets and significantly increasing the attractiveness of precious metals.

2. Global central bank gold hoarding trend continues: The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for 13 consecutive months, with global central banks purchasing 220 tons of gold in the third quarter, setting a record and strengthening gold price support through de-dollarization.

3. Silver industrial demand surges: The consumption of silver in photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and AI servers has surged, widening the supply-demand gap and driving silver prices sharply higher.

The key to the future market lies in the outcome of rate cuts; if easing signals are realized, the precious metals bull market may continue.
#美联储重启降息步伐 #比特币VS代币化黄金 #黄金 $BTC $ETH

On Monday, gold opened as expected above 4190, just as analyzed by Jinming last Friday. As long as it remains above 4190, the trend remains bullish! Currently, consider going long near the current price of 4213, with an initial target at 4230 and an extension to 4245!!

Notes for following trades: First, do not over-leverage; the content is purely for sharing and does not constitute any buy or sell instructions. Secondly, market conditions change rapidly, adjustments must be made independently. Thirdly, the market is unpredictable, and operations must be cautious. Setting stop-losses strictly based on your own funds and positions is the last line of defense to protect your principal and profits, remember! The market has risks; maintain rationality! #黄金

Trading is not just a slogan; it's about tangible results!

This week’s gold market is, to be honest, not very friendly: large fluctuations, many false breakouts, and extremely chaotic emotions.
But in such a market, the importance of a trading system becomes even more apparent.

📊 This week’s account summary:
Steady and solid, achieving a profit of 193,986.07.

It’s not about going all in, nor is it about betting on direction.
Every entry and exit is based on structure, rhythm, and risk control.
When the market gives opportunities — take profits;
When the market is volatile — manage positions;
When the market weakens — decisively reverse.

Many people often ask me a question:
“Teacher, can we still trade gold now? Can we still make money?”

My answer has always been simple:
👉 There are always opportunities in the market, but not everyone can seize them.
What you lack is not luck, but method.

🌟 Stability does not mean slowness;
Precision is the core of making money.
The numbers from this week are the best proof.
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#比特币VS代币化黄金 #黄金

12.8 Monday Gold Midday Analysis

The gold market has experienced a roller coaster with a surge followed by a drop. After reaching a high of 4213.25, the price quickly turned downward, falling to a low of 4197.68 by the end of the session, ultimately forming a long upper shadow bearish candle. Based on the moving average trends, the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages have shown signs of turning downward, indicating a clear signal of short-term bullish momentum exhaustion.

From the chart pattern analysis, this resistance encountered during the surge is not coincidental. The price failed to maintain stability after rebounding to a key resistance area, and the long upper shadow visually reflects heavy selling pressure above. The profit-taking actions of bulls after the surge are evident, and there is a risk of forming a short-term double top technically, implying that this rebound has likely reached its peak, with a high probability of entering a correction or even a downward trend in the future.

Operational Suggestions:

1. The core idea is to focus on short positions. The primary resistance above is the intraday high of 4213.25. If the market is weak, the price may struggle to break this level. One can enter short positions on the right side below this level based on 5-minute signals. If it breaks through, wait to set short positions in the 4228-4245 range.

2. The support below is first at the intraday low of 4197.68, and further down to the 4185-4170 range. If 4170 is effectively breached, the four-hour level will shift from consolidation to a bearish trend, and subsequent trades can follow the trend, targeting lower at 4130-4050. #黄金

China's gold reserves hit a new high: Why has "hoarding gold" become a consensus among major powers?

When the latest data on China's gold reserves is released in December 2025, the scale of $310.647 billion will break the record again—it's clear from the continuously rising curve in the chart that "increasing gold holdings" is no longer a short-term operation, but rather a long-term strategic layout.

Why are major global powers crazily "hoarding gold"? The core value of gold, which is irreplaceable, lies behind this phenomenon.

From the data, China has been steadily increasing its gold holdings every month for the past six months: from June 2025 to now, the monthly increase in gold weight has been at least 0.93 tons and at most 2.18 tons, with a corresponding value increase of up to $29.448 billion. This continuous accumulation essentially reflects gold's role as a "ballast" in the era of "geopolitical turbulence + excessive currency issuance"—when sovereign currencies like the US dollar and euro are affected by policy fluctuations, gold is the only "hard currency" that does not rely on any national credit, safeguarding the safety bottom line of national assets during black swan events.

The importance of gold has long surpassed the single label of being a "safe-haven tool":
For nations, adequate gold reserves provide the confidence for stable exchange rates—when the local currency faces depreciation pressure, gold can be quickly converted into foreign exchange to resist the impact of cross-border capital flows;
For the global landscape, gold is a key bargaining chip in "de-dollarization"—an increasing number of countries are accumulating gold, which essentially reduces reliance on the US dollar settlement system, using gold's "global consensus value" to hedge against the systemic risks of a single currency;
For ordinary investors, gold is the "safety cushion" of household assets—it is not influenced by market sentiment like stocks or funds, nor does it shrink in value like paper currency due to inflation, making it a "wealth anchor" that transcends economic cycles.

The continuous rise of China's gold reserves is both a response to global economic uncertainties and a reaffirmation of gold's value: in turbulent times, gold has never been an "outdated asset", but rather a core weapon for major power competition and asset preservation. Ordinary people may not need to hoard physical gold like countries do, but allocating a certain proportion of gold assets has long been a necessary choice for risk mitigation. #比特币VS代币化黄金 #黄金 #美联储重启降息步伐 $BTC $ETH

Good afternoon, all traders who are holding the market!

In the morning, the gold market was steady and stable, oscillating repeatedly within a range. Under what seems to be calm fluctuations, there is actually a buildup of forces on both the long and short sides. Every pullback is a brewing opportunity, and every wait is a training in trading wisdom.

The essence of trading is never the hustle of high-frequency actions, but the certainty in precisely capturing turning points. Understanding the core logic of support and resistance, and strictly adhering to the ironclad rules of profit taking and loss cutting, is far more effective in navigating fluctuations and locking in profits than blindly chasing uptrends or downtrends.

May your mindset in the afternoon remain calm and unperturbed, with clear thoughts and not blind following,
knowing when to conserve energy and when to strike decisively,
so that every trade is methodical, and every position is backed by confidence—
afternoon trading continues to improve, and risk control remains a top priority! #黄金