Big players are cashing out, can retail investors withstand the pain?
#美股大跌 Recently, the dramatic drop in Bitcoin has truly left people in shock! The price fell from $95,000 all the way down to around $79,000, and now it seems like a dead fish flopping around near the $76,000 support level. I dug into the data and found a few key points:
The culprit behind the crash has been identified
The US interest rate hike sword still hangs overhead, and large institutions are pulling out funds to avoid risks
The cryptocurrency market has generally entered a period of caution, with speculative funds all fleeing
On-chain data shows that big players have been frantically unloading their assets recently
The technical situation is grim
All short-term moving averages are pointing down, resembling a "thousand knife slash" trend
The MACD green bars are getting longer, reminiscent of the beginning of the bear market in 2018
Now the price is stuck at $76,000; if it breaks down, we’ll directly see the psychological level of $70,000
The direction of funds is chilling to consider
The recent sharp decline is clearly panic selling, and the OBV indicator shows continuous outflow of funds
If it rebounds to around $80,000, it will likely be smashed down; there’s a mountain of trapped positions at $85,000-$90,000
Large orders are still fleeing, and the MACD death cross indicates that institutions have no intention to buy the dip
Short-term trend prediction
Don’t believe in any "technical rebounds"; every surge is a chance to escape
Even if the RSI hits 30, don’t rush to buy the dip; during the 2018 bear market, the RSI remained in the oversold zone for half a year
The lower Bollinger Band can no longer hold; if there’s to be a rebound, it must break through $82,000 with volume
Personal trading advice:
For those betting on a short-term rebound, take profits when you can; trading contracts now is like playing with fire
If you're looking for a medium to long-term strategy, it’s better to wait; don’t go heavy before the Fed ends its rate hike cycle
Pay close attention to the defense at $76,000; if it breaks, we’ll see the previous low of $65,000
To be frank: the cryptocurrency market has always been about rising risks and falling opportunities, but clearly, we haven’t seen a complete drop yet. It’s wiser to hold onto your bullets and wait for right-side signals, don’t be cannon fodder!
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