🧠 Bitcoin between cycles, whales, and institutional pressure: The decisive moment
📆 Key events and hard data
July 15–25: Massive BTC movements by large holders (Galaxy Digital transferred 30,109 BTC ≈ $3.5B; Satoshi era wallets reactivated +80,000 BTC).
BTC falls from $117K to $114.6K after an increase in supply.
Technical support broken at $118,859 (Fibonacci 23.6%), generating $379M in liquidations.
Technical indicators show weakness: MACD -316.2, RSI 64.06, break of the 7-day moving average ($118,512).
Derivatives reflect panic: $35.5M liquidated in short positions.
📉 Market dynamics
Total capital outflow: Altcoin Season Index drops 29% (down to 39).
ETFs lose strength: only 0.3% growth in assets under management ($149.7B).
Sentiment remains in Greed (Index at 67), raising the risk in leveraged positions.
✨ Bitcoin's magic pattern: Heading to $280,000?
Historical analysis suggests a repetitive pattern every ~1300–1500 days: drop, silent accumulation, and rebound.
Currently, Bitcoin would be closing its third phase of accumulation.
The compression of cycles could accelerate the next rally.
Projections estimate a range between $150K and $280K, if the pattern repeats and global liquidity continues to grow.
Current price: $118,952, with increasing volume. Key moment ✅
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