Any trader who can ultimately make money is a trend trader!
There was a time when I was also enthusiastic, making trading plans early and writing trading insights late. Winning brought joy and excitement, while losing brought sadness and embarrassment. I once made a fortune during a major one-sided trend, going days without sleep, and I also slowly cooked in warm water, ending up severely weakened, cautious and timid.
Having experienced peaks and troughs, basked in the red sun, and witnessed the bright moon. Regardless of whether people gather or disperse, regardless of heights and distances, I am right there, not too big, not too small, and no one knows.
Having seen through human nature and unveiled its essence, there isn't much vanity to sway emotions. Gradually expanding my own profits, quietly sharing many personal stories from the futures industry that few people know.
These stories have a starting point, but not necessarily an endpoint. They occurred in the past, real and poignant, but they will also unfold in the future because human nature is difficult to change, and fresh happenings are rare under the sun. The 80/20 rule has existed in the past, is playing out now, and will continue into the future.
I am a stable profit-making fund manager, just acting as everyone's eyes because I am deeply embedded in the core circle of futures investment. To describe it as being at the forefront is not an exaggeration.
As long as everyone is interested in knowing certain things, I will share as much as possible. As for whether what I say is true, those who have been in the circle understand naturally. The wise see clearly, and the pure understand themselves. This information is significant for investors who are struggling with the circle.
In these years, I have earned money from the market, but I understand that it is all ordinary investors' funds. I cannot make any grand contributions, willing to share my years of experience and insights with investors as a return.
Hope is good, but futures investment cannot be understood overnight. My advice is to not invest any money at first. If you really want to do well in futures investment, you need to patiently do your homework before entering. The best way is to have a good mentor lead you in, allowing you to get started and improve quickly, which can save you four to five years of exploration time.
First, do not invest a penny. Because newcomers are too unfamiliar with this place, any little unfamiliarity and oversight could lead to losses, and it may cause emotional fluctuations, leading to even greater losses.
Secondly, go feel and understand. You can open a demo account, familiarizing yourself with various environments and mindsets of futures trading while operating through the demo account. This is a process that requires time. This process can help you gradually no longer feel unfamiliar with many aspects of futures, laying a good foundation for further trading.
Again, determine your basic operational strategy and conduct exploratory investments with a very small amount of funds, throwing stones to ask for directions. From your personal investment strategy standpoint, unfamiliarity means risk, and making exploratory investments that do not impact the overall situation in the face of unknown risks is a wise move.
There are many ways to profit, but only a long-term, stable, and ideally profitable model counts as genuine. If this characteristic is not reflected, profits and losses will alternate, sometimes peaking and sometimes dipping, ultimately yielding little benefit.
After clarifying this concept, I can recall many successful investors I have a slight understanding of. They have different styles: those who profit from technical indicators (good psychological quality, long-term persistence), those who profit from intuition (excellent psychological quality, gifted), those who profit from macroeconomic strategic thinking (good psychological quality, extremely patient), and those who profit from being cautious (average psychological quality, but their timid nature prompts them to exit at the first sign of loss, decisively cutting losses).
All of the above have their own characteristics and have undergone long-term market tests. At least up to now, they have all been relatively successful. The paths to profit vary, and you need to do a self-analysis first, determining what kind of personality you have and what style suits you, to formulate a trading model that fits you.
I have seen those who make money quickly; electric vehicles have indeed turned into Mercedes cars, but they also lost quickly, and it’s not surprising to see Mercedes cars revert back to electric ones. I don’t like the empty joy of paper wealth; my achievements aren't the best, but my overall style is rather stable.
Excluding the loss in the 7th month of the year before last, all other months have been profitable. In terms of performance in the circle, it can only be considered average, but stability is above average. What struck me deeply is that among the 14 large traders in the big trader area, only two remain now.
One is me, and the other is senior Xue. Neither of us can be considered to have made a lot, but we can only be considered stable. The elder once said: 'Don't fear slow, just fear fast.' There must be some truth in that. Let's encourage each other. Continue to restrain arrogance and impatience, and move forward steadily.
Let me ask a classic question: Can market trends be predicted? My answer is: I don't know; I can't predict, and none of my friends can predict either. Perhaps I am just ignorant. However, I often see friends who profit without relying on predictions.
The varieties I participate in are more inclined towards the Shanghai market, with large capital capacity and high contention. The copper, zinc, rubber, and rebar in the Shanghai market are several key varieties I focus my funds on.
The largest capital deployment is in IF stock index futures. The overall capital deployment style is: overall allocation, highlighting key points. Primary and secondary contradictions are participated in according to their intensity, which I believe can comprehensively control the systematic risk of capital accounts while allowing profit growth to stabilize.
Based on my experiences in 2005 and 2008, technical patterns have rationale and can be traced. The one-sided copper bull market that started in 2005 and the one-sided copper bear market in 2008, I believe that those who participated were either suffering huge losses or making huge profits, but in any case, the impressions were deep.
Especially in the latter half of the 2008 one-sided decline, the Shanghai side continuously raised the margin ratio, even taking measures for forced liquidation to ease contention. At that time, I also empathized with the market and nearly half of my positions were forcibly liquidated by agreement, which was quite regrettable. Even today, years later, it remains fresh in my memory.
In terms of technical patterns, the breakout from the new high in 2005 and the downward break from the standard converging triangle in 2008 are things that any investor with a basic understanding can comprehend.
The fact has proven to be undeniably successful. However, I must emphasize the unsuccessful situations. I recall that between 2005 and 2008, successful pattern markets appeared twice, while unsuccessful pattern markets appeared four times, resulting in a success rate of only just over 30%. This conclusion is based on factual evidence, and facts are the only standard for verifying truth, hard to refute.
A low success rate can actually be attempted because the profit rate from the two successful pattern markets combined exceeds 700% (compound profit rate), while the loss rate from the four unsuccessful pattern markets combined is 67% (also compound).
This means that there is no absolute efficacy and no absolute inefficacy, but there exists an absolute effectiveness under strict stop-loss discipline that maintains continuous profit growth. This is something that can be completely explained philosophically, and the fact has successfully verified it.
There is no absolute effectiveness, but there exists relative absolute effectiveness. This is my view.
I can share my humble opinions on intraday trading: do not start trading yet; observe others trading first, especially accounts with extremely poor trading performance.
You can spend a month observing these accounts daily, just observing how they incur losses, how losses gradually expand to an unmanageable extent, how they harbor illusions, how their trading plans are repeatedly revised, and how the psychological defenses of traders are ultimately breached. When you observe for a long time and memorize it in your heart, I believe that as long as you have basic skills, intraday trading will see significant improvement.
My experience is: they only hold on for a very short time when they profit, quickly leaving to avoid losses. But when they incur losses, they struggle intensely, continuously finding reasons to hold on to losing positions until losses become unmanageable. The final trading characteristic is: large losses, small gains.
Even large-scale contention funds must adhere to basic supply and demand relationships, especially in today's globalization. Creating a closed system cannot result in successful forced liquidation; otherwise, the harsh reality of physical delivery is right in front of you.
Do you remember the peak confrontation of huge contention funds in Jinrui Futures in 2005 and 2008? Just the exposed pure contention funds were all above 2 billion, making them the most powerful opposing party. Yet the result was two defeats, tragically.
Facts indicate that contention funds do not align with basic supply and demand or overall market forces, and they also face disastrous defeats. So based on this, those who stand in alignment with the market are the active side, while those who stand in opposition are the passive side.
Another feeling I have is that regardless of whether it is oneself or the opponent, whether the funds are large or small, regardless of how fierce or sluggish the methods are, they must align with the trend. History has repeatedly verified that those who follow the trend prosper while those who oppose it perish.
Even Soros attacking the pound was based on detailed analysis concluding that the pound would inevitably depreciate, which is why he dared to escalate the contradiction and burst the asset bubble, acting merely to follow and push the trend, not to reverse it.
The market is almost fair to any investor (we all know it's hard to achieve absolute fairness in China). As you said, when Zhejiang contended with Shanghai back then, if Shanghai had timely aligned with the trend, accepting losses and exiting, there would not have been a bankruptcy tragedy.
Still the old saying, a classic refrain: 'Those who follow thrive, those who oppose perish.' If you stand on the side that aligns with the historical trend, then continue to stand firm and timely ride the wave, allowing the initiative to blossom. If you stand on the opposing side of the trend, then quickly acknowledge your mistake and leave, immediately shifting to the side that aligns.
The ultimate direction of the market has its own reasoning; investors who continuously test and exit upon finding errors will not make major mistakes. Those who persist in errors while being obstinate will become cannon fodder.
I often quietly observe those who are obstinately pursuing their paths in the market through my technical means, and the data I summarize presents the following characteristics: investors with smaller capital can resist losses better, while those with larger capital can hold onto profits better. Assuming 10 trading days, investors with smaller capital have only about 3 trading days of profit, and the profit is minimal.
Investors with larger capital have nearly 7 trading days of profit, and the profit-to-loss ratio is 12:1. Here, the size of capital refers to intersecting investors, not union. The average daily loss for retail investors is around 1%-4%. I witness such hunting battles daily and find it quite insightful.
I have a profound feeling that thorough research and investigation were conducted before trading, based on the historical facts of each variety. Achieving a clear understanding is a rare accomplishment.
Additionally, every trade is strategic; there is a corresponding strategy for every situation that arises, which is very reasonable. This also significantly avoids unnecessary risks. Of course, this reflects the comprehensiveness, systematicness, and strategicality of thinking from another perspective.
My advice is based on my experience; you should reduce the number of varieties you operate on and try to choose those you are most familiar with and capable of handling, ideally around three varieties. Specialization is key; you cannot excel in every field but can definitely be an expert in a few.
Fix your time intervals, fix your volatility, fix your capital allocation, and fix your win-loss ratio. Like an equation, you must first determine the unknowns and then know where you want to go before considering how to get there.
Some relatively fixed value ranges can significantly reduce your breakthrough difficulty in the early stages of technical breakthroughs, increasing the likelihood of your leaps. It’s not about quantity; effectiveness is key. Large institutions also incur losses from mistakes, while individuals can profit from correct decisions. Behind futures is capital, and behind capital is people, whose driving force is habit.
When it comes to a life-and-death struggle, it’s about who has the least human weaknesses. Approaching it with a casual mindset will not lead to victory. You still need to take it seriously, analyze objectively, and gradually enhance your rationality on the left side to conquer the emotionality on the right side.
The great revelation of the crypto circle: how to steadily profit, avoid risks, and achieve compounding?
In the cryptocurrency market, many investors harbor dreams of getting rich overnight and blindly follow trends, often finding themselves trapped at high positions, sinking into losses. As an experienced investor, I want to tell you that those who can achieve stable profits in the crypto space are not the speculators chasing short-term profits, but the rational, steady investors. Today, I will share with you how to invest steadily in the crypto space, how to use rolling strategies and reasonable position management to achieve long-term stable profits.
These days I am preparing for the upcoming layout of the divine single!!!
Comment 777, get on board!!!
The impermanent brings the impermanent brings the impermanent!!!
