Yi Hai Lun Coin writes every analysis article with a responsible, focused, and sincere attitude, with distinct characteristics, avoiding pretentiousness and exaggeration!
Daily market interpretation, I am digital currency analyst Yi Hai Lun Coin!
Yesterday, BTC returned to $74,508, and in a short time, it seemed to signal a bear market, as both the 50-week and 365-day moving averages were broken. However, last night, two pieces of news provided momentum to the market again. Firstly, Trump reiterated that the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates. Reports indicate that the Federal Reserve held a closed-door meeting yesterday to review and determine the withdrawal and discount rates charged by Federal Reserve banks. However, based on predictive data, the probability of the Federal Reserve not cutting rates in May is actually higher than yesterday. Meanwhile, media reports suggest that Trump is considering suspending tariffs on some countries for 90 days. This news directly caused BTC to rebound rapidly, returning to the starting point, but this piece of news was soon confirmed as a rumor, and BTC retraced some gains, yet ultimately remained around the $80,000 mark.
According to data, BTC seems to have found support around $74,000, with over 50,000 BTC chips concentrated in distribution. Most of these BTC holders gradually established their cost basis in the past five months, adding positions during the previous upward trend until there was a significant decrease in on-chain activity after March 10, without large-scale selling or further accumulation, instead opting to hold and observe. Their choice to stop frequent operations indicates their dissatisfaction with the current price and unwillingness to incur losses to exit, which inadvertently establishes a significant support area. However, those who bought around $98,000 are currently under considerable pressure, which is an important resistance area that BTC must overcome during its subsequent rise. This is also where market makers will try to wash out some chips or force this group to surrender and then take over these chips at a lower price, a tactic often employed by market makers.
The current core focus of the market revolves around April 9, which is tomorrow; Trump's reciprocal tariffs will take effect. Trump's stance on tariffs was extremely firm last weekend, leading to a significant drop in BTC yesterday. The key is whether we can maintain above the 50-week moving average by the end of this week. Another point is that BTC's daily line has been in a continuous downward trend for more than two months. In the past period, BTC has consistently failed to break through resistance, forming lower highs. The current bullish strength is still insufficient to completely break through selling pressure. Recently, BTC has seen a death cross, which, combined with yesterday's crash, is very similar to the turmoil caused by forced liquidation of yen carry trades in early August last year. After that, BTC also showed a death cross on the daily chart, which continued until the end of October last year. This time may also experience more consolidation.
Currently, sentiment is relatively extreme, with the VIX (Volatility Index) again reaching a high point. From previous situations, such extreme panic sentiment often forms market lows, usually bringing opportunities for mid-term rebounds. However, the market is filled with uncertainties, and many friends are unclear about the current situation. Is the market presenting us with a bear market smoke screen, or will it be directly taken over by the bear market? For such movements, Lao Yi is not surprised. The facts have proven that the offensive strategies over the past few days have yielded relatively ideal returns. Although there is still a considerable distance from the highest and lowest points, this seems to be the reason why everyone chooses Lao Yi. From Lao Yi's perspective, it leans more towards being a bear market smoke screen, but only for BTC; the altcoin market has long been overtaken by the bear market. In addition to the VIX index, the global economic policy uncertainty index has also reached a new high. Trump has once again called for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates as soon as possible. The current economic situation provides Powell with an opportunity to change his image, significantly alleviating the financial pressure on the United States. However, from a structural perspective, the Federal Reserve's goals still prioritize monetary stability and full employment. Despite Trump's pressure and increased tariffs creating uncertainties to indirectly influence the Federal Reserve's monetary strategy, the ultimate decision will still depend on core economic data.
Currently, funds are flowing from risk assets to US Treasuries, thereby lowering long-term interest rates and weakening economic momentum, ultimately leading the Federal Reserve to adopt a loose monetary policy. However, this process is filled with games and uncertainties. The Federal Reserve is currently in a dilemma, with inflation levels still too high and the job market remaining strong; last week's non-farm data exceeded expectations. Although the data may have considerable discrepancies, the space for the Federal Reserve to relax its monetary policy seems limited. The market is optimistic that the Federal Reserve will lean towards more rate cuts, but looking back, it seems that the Federal Reserve has consistently emerged victorious. Furthermore, from the perspective of BTC spot ETFs, there has not been significant capital outflow. After all, some rumors during US stock market openings led to market rebounds, and it seems that most contract players are forming a confrontation with market makers, which is the biggest setback for retail investors that Lao Yi often mentions. For spot players, if their mindset is stable enough, it seems that nothing happened last night, and we have once again returned to the starting point. Last year, BTC oscillated in the $70,000 range for half a year, with strong support here. The average purchase cost line for BTC spot ETFs is concentrated around $72,600. Although the recent pullback did not touch $73,000, it can be said that yesterday once again returned to the bottom area, completing a washout in a short time. If there are no significant interruptions going forward, the new CME gap will also be filled again. Yesterday, it broke through $81,000, but the new gap has not been filled, which means that if the rebound can last for a while, BTC may break through $82,000.
Looking back, if we disregard the short-term fluctuations, it seems that nothing has happened to BTC; at least from the outcome, we seem to have returned to the starting point. From this perspective, the market makers have gained more room to wash out positions; larger amplitudes and tighter oscillation ranges are more favorable for them. After a complete cycle of fluctuations, we find that we have returned to the starting point: the price is back to where it started, but the funds have gone to the market makers. Many new friends should resonate with this. However, looking back at Lao Yi's recent strategies and outcomes, it seems cleverly aligned with market makers, which is what Lao Yi often mentions about avoiding retail investor thinking and approaching the market from an objective perspective. Not considering oneself as part of the game allows for a clearer capture of market motivations. From a value perspective, BTC has achieved great success. New friends holding altcoins have seen Lao Yi's views synchronized within their social circles, and many have come to find Lao Yi recently, but he is indeed overwhelmed. Everyone should first align their thinking with Lao Yi for better assistance in subsequent moves.
Returning to the market itself, it can be affirmed that there will be growth, but it can be stated that volatility will increase. From a long-term perspective, everyone should start from the outcome and not be overly disturbed by the current fluctuations. In a shorter timeframe, it is actually similar to short-term strategies, just with a longer psychological battle line. Reflecting on what Lao Yi has mentioned about value investing, and considering BTC's value and influence within the cryptocurrency space, the answer will naturally come to mind. If this is still not clear, one can refer to Lao Yi's previous articles. Therefore, those choosing to invest in spot must not be in a hurry to use their funds in the short term, and be able to maintain the above-mentioned composure in mindset. This places higher demands on the investors themselves, and everyone can compare this with their own situation before approaching Lao Yi. For short-term strategies, one must accept volatility and capture the motivations of market makers and the market within those fluctuations, conducting risk assessments and clarifying the current trend. Currently, if BTC reaches lower lows, it can be seen as having strong resistance, as the prolonged consolidation below has accumulated more stubborn power. Facing rate cuts, liquidity releases, pauses in balance sheet reduction, and long-term holders continuing to increase positions, these all indicate a more solid support. However, the increase in volatility is a high-probability event, and it is not merely emotional fluctuations. One must understand that emotions do not guide price movements for market makers; they are just tools created by market makers to lead retail investors to cut losses. However, during such times, some may also manage to align with market makers, which is the core of Lao Yi's offensive strategy. The long-term trend is already very clear, but it is difficult to provide a definite direction for the short term in this article. Lao Yi can only synchronize information during offensive strategies; those in need can communicate with Lao Yi in advance and progress steadily!
Yi Hai Lun Coin: The success of investment depends not only on choosing good targets but also on when to buy and sell. Protecting the principal and making good asset allocations are essential for steady progress in the ocean of investments. Life in this world is like a long river flowing into the sea; what determines victory or defeat is never the gains or losses of a single pass or location, but rather the confluence of many rivers!
The article is solely the author's personal opinion and does not constitute any trading advice. There are risks in the cryptocurrency market; please invest cautiously!