Yi Hai Lun Coin writes every analysis article with a responsible, focused, and sincere attitude, with distinct characteristics, not pretentious or exaggerated!
Daily market analysis, I am digital currency analyst Yi Hai Lun Coin!
Surge? In recent days, Lao Yi has already reminded everyone that yesterday BTC had an overall increase of 8.25% (6292.8), with a volatility of up to 11.75% (8968). Although not all could be captured, securing more than half of the chips is still quite considerable. Friends who were bearish last night seem to have gone silent. Lao Yi still wants to remind everyone that when the trend is clear, it is best to follow it; when the situation is unclear, align with the major players. The facts prove that Trump has always targeted us; the tariffs on our products have eventually increased to 125%, while the reciprocal tariffs on over 75 regions have been significantly reduced to 10%, and tariffs have been suspended for 90 days for everyone except us. U.S. stocks and BTC rebounded in response, with the Nasdaq rising 12.16%, marking the largest single-day increase since 2001. The uncertainty regarding tariffs has been significantly reduced, and there will be a 90-day window, which has also sparked quite a bit of speculation.
Previously, I mentioned the global M2 money supply. Based on a 108-day lag, BTC prices should start a new round of increases by the end of April at the latest, provided that the uncertainty regarding tariffs is alleviated. Currently, this condition has been met. From Lao Yi's perspective, the probability of BTC returning to the 100,000 mark or breaking historical highs in the next three to four months has clearly increased, and it does not seem particularly difficult at this point. The recent CME gap has now been completely filled. Looking back at the chip distribution chart mentioned yesterday, during this period of price fluctuations, some chips that were stuck at high levels have shown signs of retreating, being bought up at lower price levels concentrated between $81,300 to $83,500. After the rumors of the 90-day suspension of tariffs came out, BTC could only rise to $81,300. However, this time it is not a rumor, and BTC has thus seen a larger rebound. During the previous drop below $80,000, investors who bought in this price range were suffering losses. Now that BTC has returned to these ranges, some investors will naturally choose to sell, especially short-term players who have endured nearly 10% floating losses. Once they see a reversal in the situation, they will choose to exit to protect their capital. The upcoming BTC needs to convert this area back into a support level.
Tonight at 20:30, the U.S. will announce the CPI inflation data for March. Lao Yi mentioned on Monday that an overall decline in inflation is expected, from the previous 2.8% down to 2.6%, or even 2.5%. This brings us closer to the Fed's inflation target of 2%. It seems to be beneficial for BTC, but we also need to pay attention to the core inflation level. Additionally, the minutes from the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting indicate that officials unanimously believe Trump's reciprocal tariff strategy has led to high economic uncertainty; hence, the Fed continues to pause interest rate cuts due to concerns that Trump's tariff strategy may push up inflation, the impact of which may last longer than anticipated. Currently, the CME forecast data indicates that the probability of no rate cuts in May has returned to nearly 80%, and the possibility of an emergency rate cut has basically been passed, as Trump's strategy has given the market a sense of reassurance.
One of the core reasons why Trump quickly abandoned his original trade strategy is that U.S. Treasury bonds experienced volatility, which has posed a substantial threat to the stability of the entire financial system. Recently, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield saw a sharp rise, peaking at 4.5%. It is said that not only hedge funds are aggressively selling off to retaliate against the U.S. tariff strategy, but also includes the 30-year Treasury yield, which even briefly broke through 5%. The rise in Treasury yields indicates that more people are selling Treasury bonds, or it can be said that fewer people are buying them, which is not the result Trump intended to see. This directly leads to a significant increase in the cost of refinancing the $9 trillion in Treasury bonds, completely disrupting Trump's calculations. It must be said that policies from above lead to countermeasures below; surging yields are rarely seen in the bond market, and many institutions have begun to issue warnings. The former U.S. Treasury Secretary has also pointed out that the U.S. financial system may be on the brink of a crisis. Market panic is spreading from financial assets to the level of strategic trust, and the soaring U.S. Treasury yields seem to have struck him like a blow to the head. Currently, it seems that Trump has realized that if he continues to push hard on the tariff strategy, it is not just the U.S. stock market that will be hurt, but the bond market is the key issue that requires urgent attention; this was also a key catalyst for long positions last night.
Success and failure both hinge on Trump; this is the most frequently heard statement from friends recently. However, after carefully asking for everyone's opinions, it turns out that many friends have not seen the essence of the matter clearly. If you are not particularly clear about the logic of U.S. Treasury bonds, you can refer to Lao Yi's previous articles, and I won't elaborate further here. The negative impacts of Trump's strategy have already been reflected on multiple levels: U.S. stock valuations have significantly declined, investor confidence has been shaken, capital has begun to flee from the U.S., and the cryptocurrency market has not been spared, while the inflation risk is rapidly rising. Observing several key indicators, the 365-day moving average seems to have held up, and the market's panic sentiment has eased, especially as the uncertainty regarding tariffs has been alleviated. This week’s closing is likely to remain above the 50-week moving average, and BTC is still in a bull market phase, with the market moving toward continuing the trend.
On the other hand, Lao Yi needs to reiterate the following: what Lao Yi provides is merely advice; the final choice always lies in everyone's hands. Many friends have deviated from Lao Yi's trading principles by heavily investing after receiving strategies. Although some friends have still achieved considerable results and even higher returns in the end, the risks are borne by everyone themselves. Lao Yi does not wish to see this battlefield approached with a speculative mindset. Friends familiar with Lao Yi know that strategies are focused on steady gains. Fortunately, the results are good. Lao Yi expresses this to encourage everyone to view the situation rationally before attacking, while also being responsible for everyone. Those who approach Lao Yi do so out of trust, and they can express themselves before attacking, rather than informing after the outcome.
Regarding the upcoming trends, Lao Yi's attitude is relatively positive. BTC is expected to return to the 100,000 mark within the next few months, and currently, there do not seem to be many obstacles. If there are not too many similar tariff issues, we should consider whether the upward trend can continue after reaching the 100,000 mark. This still requires continuous observation of liquidity changes. This month, the Federal Reserve has begun to slow down its quantitative tightening pace, but what the market wants to see is of course quantitative easing, especially for the altcoin market. However, the Federal Reserve has consistently emphasized that it will not consider quantitative easing until the federal interest rate drops to 0%. From this perspective, altcoins still face ongoing difficulties. In the short term, it seems there is some positive news; at least the bear market is far away, but that does not mean everyone can blindly go long. From a technical perspective, the position from the highest point to the current position is still within a downward trend line and has not effectively broken above it. However, after yesterday's K-line surge, no clear bearish signals have been seen. Although the current news is providing positive support, everyone should compare the previous trend direction with the current situation; no clear trading signals have been given. We still need to continue observing, and after the K-line shows a clear direction, we can plan to attack. If one side of the K-line shows significant movement, there could still be an opportunity to catch a small trend rhythm in the short term. Once the signals are clear, Lao Yi will inform everyone, but at the same time, the position size needs to be controlled in advance. Friends with ideas should remember to communicate with Lao Yi in advance!
Investment success depends not only on choosing good targets but also on when to buy and sell. Preserving principal and making proper asset allocation is essential for steady progress in the ocean of investment. Life in this world is like a long river flowing into the sea; what determines victory or defeat is never the gains and losses of a single pass or a moment, but the gathering of rivers into a vast flow!
The article is solely a personal opinion and does not constitute any buying or selling advice. The cryptocurrency market is risky, and investment should be approached with caution!
