Lao Yi's View on Coins writes each analysis article with a responsible, focused, and sincere attitude, characterized by clarity, authenticity, and no exaggeration!
Daily market interpretation, I am digital currency analyst Lao Yi's View on Coins!
The recent performance of the BTC spot ETF has indeed been unsatisfactory. Over the past eight trading days counting back from the 14th, there has been a net outflow of funds totaling $1.2 billion, with the main withdrawal forces being IBIT, FBTC, and GBTC. On April 8, IBIT alone withdrew $253 million. Although BTC prices have seen a slight rebound recently, major institutions have not taken aggressive positions, and traditional funds remain in a wait-and-see posture. Therefore, the future direction of the Federal Reserve's interest rates is still not very clear, and regulators have not made it clear who wants to take on the role of the buyer at this time. Bottom-fishing seems to still be suppressed by observation. Overall, however, we are very close to the bottom of the market now. Taking a small portion of positions to attack is not a big problem. To put it simply, the ETF is a funding channel between traditional finance and the crypto world, but currently, this channel is not very smooth. Firstly, there are no new strategies, and the market lacks new breakout points. According to Wall Street institutions, this wave of decline may continue to probe lower, but Lao Yi still firmly believes that BTC's rebound is just a matter of time.
As of now, BTC has risen above $85,000, and the NVT golden cross indicator has now reached -0.41, which is in a neutral-low range. This means that the market has not overheated. After falling to $76,000 in early April, BTC has started to rebound strongly. It is now very close to $86,000, but from on-chain signals, the market still appears relatively calm. NVT has not broken through the short-term top warning line of 2.2, nor has it fallen below the bottom area signal of -1.6, indicating that the overall market remains cautious and risk appetite has not returned significantly. Additionally, on-chain capital flow has not shown a significant expansion, which does not match the price increase, so BTC has not yet entered a relatively strong market. Currently, the vast majority of investors are in a wait-and-see state, and a pullback could happen at any time. However, Lao Yi also wants to remind everyone that an increase could happen at any time.
On the other hand, stablecoins have not seen significant changes this week. USDT has risen from $144.1 billion to $144.3 billion, while USDC has slightly decreased from $60.2 billion to $60.1 billion, showing almost no movement. This means that American investors have neither entered the market in large numbers nor withdrawn massively, so the overall market remains in a wait-and-see state. Although BTC has recently seen a certain rebound in price and the NVT indicator has provided some bullish signals, without the backing of capital, nothing is settled yet. Whether the current trend can further rise still depends on macro-level signals such as CPI, interest rates, and tariffs. Any significant news in these areas may stimulate market enthusiasm, but it could also dampen it. Therefore, those focusing on short-term offensive strategies need to pay attention to the Federal Reserve's further actions. Lao Yi will keep a close watch. Friends who need to attack together should remember to communicate with Lao Yi in advance and prepare; I will inform everyone before the offensive begins.
On the other hand, let's take a look at ETH, which everyone is concerned about. From the perspective of value investors, it can be affirmed that it is distinct from other altcoins. Even though its recent performance has not been satisfactory, it is still the leader among altcoins, and in Lao Yi's definition, ETH has never been categorized as an altcoin. First, from the perspective of chips, some negative news can be seen. The OG who participated in the 2015 ICO with 100,000 ETH has now entered a regular selling phase, selling about $1 million (630 ETH) every two days. At this pace, it will be sold out in the next three months. This continuous selling pressure from the chip and sentiment perspective has put consistent downward pressure on ETH. However, at the same time, some new whales and addresses have been buying ETH, so in Lao Yi's view, this whale's selling can be completely offset, and there is no need to worry too much about it. However, from an overall pattern perspective, ETH is still in a downward trend and is certainly weaker compared to BTC. In the short term, there are no significant news developments yet, and like BTC, it still needs to continuously monitor macro-level developments.
Overall, the market currently does not provide clear signals, and everyone seems to be waiting for new catalysts to ignite market enthusiasm. Friends who have already positioned themselves for the long term need not worry; most are attacking together with Lao Yi. If there are significant adjustments, Lao Yi will inform everyone in a timely manner. New friends who are starting with spot trading can also communicate with Lao Yi to plan their positions. Today's long positions can gradually withdraw and observe the next stage of trends, as there will be certain selling pressure around $86,000. Everyone should pay attention. Friends who follow @Lao Yi have already received individual responses. Currently, ETH is still in a downward trend, while BTC is in a wait-and-see phase. Lao Yi certainly will not focus solely on ETH; even if BTC rises, ETH's gains will be limited. Tonight, we will observe the market movements; BTC is still approaching the $86,000 position, and there may be new offensive opportunities tonight. Control the attack range well in the short term, and friends who need to attack together should remember to communicate with Lao Yi in advance!
Lao Yi's View on Coins: The success of investment depends not only on choosing good targets but also on when to buy and sell. Preserving principal and doing proper asset allocation is essential for steady progress in the ocean of investment. Life in the world is like a long river flowing into the sea. What determines victory or defeat is never the gains and losses of a single pass or point in time but rather the convergence of countless rivers!
This article is merely a personal opinion and does not constitute any trading advice. The crypto world has risks; invest with caution!
