Yi Hai Lun Coin writes each analysis article with a responsible, focused, and sincere attitude, with distinct characteristics; it is neither pretentious nor exaggerated!
Daily market interpretation, I am digital currency analyst Yi Hai Lun Coin!
The key events that need attention right now have been listed. The U.S. retail sales data will be announced at 8:30 PM tonight, and Powell will speak at 1:30 AM tomorrow. The market expects to see some volatility again. Recently, BTC has seen a trend breakthrough, reaching a peak of $86,443. The CME gap formed on April 3 has also been completely filled in the past two days, but BTC fell back to $83,500 after the U.S. stock market opened. There is some support strength in the $81,300 to $83,500 range. During the recent slow upward process, there are quite a few trading chips at $84,500. BTC has been trading above the 4-hour MA200 in the past few days. If it falls below $83,500, this attempt to break through may end in failure. However, from the daily chart, a more ideal trend seems to have emerged, breaking the continuous downward trend since the beginning of the year. It's just that it still remains below the 200-day moving average, and there have been a lot of shorts seen at $87,000. The recent surge did not lead to large-scale short liquidations; instead, BTC bulls have endured more pressure. Although yesterday's offensive strategy only gained a small portion of chips in the end, overall, it still maintains relatively good stability.
The BTC spot ETF has seen two consecutive days of net inflows, but the inflow of funds is not very large. Coinbase continues to maintain a negative premium, and U.S. investments have not become the main force currently; observation continues. However, MicroStrategy purchased 3,459 BTC last week, and Japan's Metaplanet company also bought 319 BTC. These large institutions have not stopped their pace due to market sentiment. On another front, data shows that the degree of participation of whales in the offensive has a certain reference effect on the potential selling pressure changes in market sentiment. The chart measures the proportion of inflow from the top ten single BTC transfers to Binance compared to the total inflow. The 365-day moving average shows a continuous upward trend, indicating that the activity of the whale community is steadily increasing during the long-term upward trend. Their proportion in the total inflow structure is gradually increasing, and the operations of such large funds are becoming an important force driving the market direction. In contrast, the 30-day moving average has recently shown a decline. Historically, this period is a critical area before BTC embarks on a new rally. Therefore, this short-term pullback may indicate a weakening of whale selling pressure or at least a stabilization in the stage.
Furthermore, the total daily inflow calculated over 30 days has also shown a significant decrease, dropping by over $3 billion. Although the market as a whole is in a highly uncertain phase, large market participants have not fallen into emotional selling. On the contrary, whales have begun to accumulate more BTC while short-term holders panic sell. Long-term holders have accumulated more BTC during this panic. If we calculate 155 days after the U.S. election on November 5, 2024, that leads us to April 9, 2025. Since BTC has recently dropped below $75,000 twice, it has completely returned to the level of early November, and those who entered the market in early November, as long as they did not choose to sell BTC at a loss during multiple washouts, represent a stronger conviction for the future market. They have not surrendered due to emotional panic and will also be included in the category of long-term holders. Correspondingly, this means that the average price line of long-term holders will rise. Since the 365-day moving average at $76,000 has already proven to be a bottom level, BTC has gained support here and has not fallen into a long-term bear market. Therefore, there is a high probability of a third wave of chip distribution, with long-term funds accumulating more chips at undervalued prices. They will likely sell at some point in the future, but for now, they remain inactive because BTC prices are not attractive and new catalysts are needed to ignite the market.
The group holding BTC for over 3 months and less than 18 months has seen an increase in market value proportion during the recent months of decline, especially the group holding BTC for 3-6 months. This wave of upward momentum has surpassed last year's record. Once long-term players start to sell again, it indicates that the bull market is officially being led by the market, and short-term funds will also enter due to FOMO, taking over these chips at higher prices. Currently, the lack of retail player support makes many friends feel very bored during BTC's bull market cycle, but this does not mean that BTC has some problems. There is no need to worry too much; market sentiment and enthusiasm continue to struggle to rise. We are currently in a wait-and-see mode, and most players are waiting for an outbreak point. The bull market seems to be brewing emotional sentiment; simply put, the big players are also waiting. However, before that, we may see significant volatility. When retail investors truly feel panic, big players will significantly lift the prices to maximize profits.
Overall, long-term players and institutional players have not given up on their buying actions due to emotional influences. This is similar to what Lao Yi has mentioned multiple times: from a value investment perspective, none of these factors change the decision to invest regularly. Currently, the price level is not considered high, and everyone may be more concerned about the position ratio, which needs to be estimated based on individual circumstances. Those planning to attack can communicate with Lao Yi separately, while those who have already entered the market need not worry. Our goal is to assess the situation after breaking new highs. As for short-term analysis, from the daily chart, there are long upper shadows, indicating some resistance during the upward process, but so far, it has not effectively broken below the large bullish candlestick from April 11. Although there was a brief decline, it was quickly recovered in a pin-like manner. Consolidation is normal, and there's no need to panic. The current support level is around $83,000, and we still wait for a pullback to follow the trend. After urging everyone to exit yesterday, we quickly saw a pullback. Lao Yi still won't join the short side; when the trend is clear, we follow the trend. A more stable approach is to ensure we are in the market before the bull market arrives, finding opportunities to ambush at lower positions, while also gradually narrowing the winning range. In the evening, pay attention to the latest data from the U.S. and Powell's speech. Lao Yi will attack in real-time. Friends who want to parallel should remember to communicate with Lao Yi in advance!
Yi Hai Lun Coin: The success of investment not only depends on choosing good targets but also on when to buy and sell. Preserving principal and making good asset allocation is essential for steady progress in the ocean of investment. Life in this world is like a long river flowing into the sea; what determines victory or defeat is never the gains and losses of a single pass or moment but the convergence of countless rivers!
The article is merely a personal opinion and does not constitute any buying or selling advice. The cryptocurrency market has risks, and investment should be cautious!
