Yihai writes each analysis article with a responsible, focused, and sincere attitude, featuring distinct characteristics, without being pretentious or exaggerated!
Daily market interpretation, I am cryptocurrency analyst Yihai!
The market is currently moving in the direction of the article's development. BTC has not yet broken out of the 82,500 to 86,500 USD range; bulls and bears are still competing for dominance. Many friends are overly anxious during this period, but looking at the results, opportunities often favor those who are prepared. According to data, in March, the global search popularity for BTC reached 34, an increase of 26% compared to February, finally ending the decline since November 2024. Even ETH has seen a recovery, with its popularity rising to the highest level this year, reaching a score of 19. The market's attention is gradually warming up. Although the current popularity is still far from the peak levels of the previous bull market, it can be seen as a signal of a stop in the decline and a rebound. Looking at the ratio of BTC to the S&P 500, it is also rising. Whether institutions or retail investors, everyone seems to have renewed their positive impression of BTC as a hedge and reserve. Overall, while the market has not yet truly entered a heated phase, the rebound in search volume, rising narratives, and the macro background's push may be the prelude to the next wave of market movements. Next, we need to continue watching whether the US will ignite the market again with its comprehensive crypto strategy. As of now, the market this week seems to have moved but also seems not to have understood; the overall increase is around 0.3%. Friends can recall that Yihai had already reminded everyone at the opening on Monday that the big players would start cleaning the market, seizing this opportunity to act alongside them.
According to data, there are currently over 640,000 BTC locked in futures contracts, worth approximately 54.4 billion USD. The funds playing derivatives in the market are super concentrated, with major institutions mainly at CME, holding as much as 142,300 BTC, while CZ's platform, led by retail and high-frequency traders, also has 110,000 open positions. The total contract holdings across the entire crypto market are nearing 100 billion USD, with BTC accounting for more than half, firmly establishing its position as the leader in the derivatives market. However, the current market leverage is somewhat excessive; the situation resembles stepping on a minefield. If BTC surges to 86,500 USD, a large number of short positions could be liquidated, potentially driving the price further up. But if it drops below 83,000 USD, bulls need to be cautious of retracement risks. In short, this is a typical critical gaming interval; the market is fluctuating back and forth with frequent spikes, so particular attention must be paid to risk management. Since April, the overall funding rate for BTC contracts has been fluctuating positively, indicating that the bulls still hold some advantage. Although on April 7, 9, and 11, there were negative values, especially noticeable in the short term on Anzi, this indicates that shorts were somewhat strong at that time. However, most of the time, the funding rate remains above 0%, with bulls still willing to pay to hold positions. The correlation between the funding rate and BTC price has also become very strong. On April 9, when BTC rebounded from the bottom, the funding rate turned positive, forcing many shorts out of the market, allowing bulls to reclaim the market. Although there were occasional negative rates in between, overall market sentiment was optimistic. However, high rates also mean higher costs for bulls; if the market turns, it may trigger a wave of bull liquidation, leading to significant movements, so everyone must strictly control risks and avoid blind attacks.
As the cryptocurrency market matures, Web3 venture capital has also moved away from just telling stories to harvest inexperienced investors. In the past, they would promote white papers and create NFTs to raise funds. Now, it seems everyone is starting to focus on fundamentals and discuss long-term logic. Market reports from American cryptocurrency platforms directly point out that funding is retreating, confidence is lacking, and technical indicators are relatively pessimistic. Meanwhile, altcoins are even more tragic, with market capitalization halving from last year's peak and subsequently dropping 41%. This wave is not about who runs fast but about who can withstand the pressure. Looking back at Yihai's articles, those who are still holding on should have sore thighs by now. The market capitalization of altcoins has fallen from last year's high of 16 trillion to the current 950 billion, and on April 9, it even dropped below 910 billion, hitting a six-month low. Funding has also retreated compared to the peak period from 2021 to 2022; venture capital has shrunk by 50% to 60%. The early-stage projects and altcoin market are indeed in a dire situation, while the uncertainty of global trade strategies and fiscal tightening are key factors impacting investment willingness. Remember at the end of last year, many new friends found Yihai to discuss holding onto their altcoins, unaware that everyone generally had a sense of false hope about altcoins' future. Even last night, an old friend reached out to Yihai, asking if it was appropriate to cut losses now. In Yihai's view, this is just contributing to the big players. When there is faith in one’s heart, no one can be persuaded otherwise. As the market matures, Yihai also hopes to help everyone avoid more risks.
Returning to the main topic, everyone is currently concerned about the market's upcoming trends. Currently, retail investors' interest in investment has somewhat rebounded, but the market has not shown obvious improvement. The big players are also waiting for an opportunity; many long positions have been established below. As long as everyone understands one logic: when the market is ambiguous, the big players will clean the market. When everyone gives up, that’s when the big players will act. At this stage, it seems more like they are testing everyone's mindset. Yihai has mentioned several times that the larger trend is converging towards the bulls. Although there is a risk of a market pullback in the short term, the depth is controllable and not as risky as everyone imagines. For long-term positioning, there is no need to reference any news; holding onto BTC is the best choice. Friends who need support for their positions can communicate with Yihai individually. As for short-term trading, we have not yet seen a new trend. Normal consolidation does not require excessive interpretation, and we are currently focusing on the range. There will not be major market movements this weekend, and Yihai will take the opportunity to rest. Positions are still open in the market; friends who are attacking in the evening need not worry. Signals will continue to be provided, and feel free to communicate anytime!
Yihai's cryptocurrency discussion: The success of investing is not only determined by choosing good targets but also by when to buy and sell. Protecting the principal and doing a good asset allocation is essential for steady progress in the ocean of investment. Life is like a long river flowing into the sea; what determines victory or defeat is never about the gains and losses at a single pass or checkpoint, but rather the vastness of converging rivers!
The article represents personal opinions and does not constitute any trading advice. The cryptocurrency market has risks; invest cautiously!
