Yi Hai Lun Bi writes each analysis article with responsibility, focus, and sincerity. The style is distinct, not pretentious or exaggerated!
Daily market analysis, I am the cryptocurrency analyst Yi Hai Lun Bi!
Is there a new wave of euphoria for BTC? Old Yi has already informed and positioned himself. Trends will never stray too far from the market. The market pricing by CME shows an 89% probability that the Fed will not cut rates in May, essentially announcing that the market can forget about it for now. However, June seems to be a month to look forward to, with expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut rising to 63.2%. The market's implication is clear, suggesting that Powell should take action in June. Meanwhile, the predictions about whether the U.S. will enter a recession have shifted from 44% in mid-April to 56%, indicating growing concerns. With businesses not investing, employment not reaching new highs, and consumption beginning to weaken, the entire market is quietly pricing in the possibility of economic issues. As for the cryptocurrency market, current interest rates are still high, which is certainly not very friendly for BTC in the short term. However, if the rate cut occurs as expected in June, once market liquidity increases, BTC may have a chance to turn the tide. Not to mention, simultaneous rate cuts and recession would provide a dual boost for the cryptocurrency market in terms of safe-haven narratives and lessons from the Fed. In simple terms, do not act impulsively before May; the market is likely to remain in a period of continued volatility. But once the direction changes in June, it could mark a new starting point for a rebound for BTC. Avoid chasing highs and cutting lows, and keep observing the macro rhythm, especially the interest rate meeting in June, which Old Yi will monitor in real-time.
According to data, the global average trading volume on cryptocurrency platforms has dropped to only $32 billion, marking a half-year low and a decline of over 75% from the peak trading frenzy at the end of last year. The issue of shrinking trading volume has arisen, leading to insufficient market depth and increasing slippage. Even small-cap operations can cause the market to oscillate sharply. The current trend remains a battle between bulls and bears, with intense tugging. Short-term players who fail to manage their positions risk being wiped out in minutes. Looking at the data, the spot and futures trading ratios of BTC and ETH have fallen to 0.19 and 0.20, respectively, hitting a phase low. This indicates that fewer genuine buyers are entering the market, while speculative trading groups dominate. The overall market liquidity is becoming artificially inflated, and minor fluctuations could sweep many out. This recent bounce has not only lifted the market but has also wiped out many bears; over the past 24 hours, the number of liquidations exceeded 100,000 globally, with a total liquidation amount reaching $234 million, of which $178 million came from short positions. According to the on-chain liquidation map, the market is currently in a high-liquidation state, with $83,000 being a critical defense level. If it falls below this, long positions could face $2.5 billion in liquidations. The resistance at $88,000 could trigger nearly $500 million in liquidations for short positions if breached. This means that any price oscillation of a few hundred points could trigger a chain reaction of liquidations. In a market already struggling with liquidity, such back-and-forth movements can drive most investors crazy. Old Yi reminds everyone once again to keep positions light and to trade quickly, refraining from holding positions and emotional trading; otherwise, you may easily become a cash cow for the market makers.
Looking at the macro level, the sentiment of American voters seems to have changed. Their fantasy that Trump could fix the economy appears to have faded faster than expected. The latest survey shows that the economic optimism that once surrounded Trump's re-election has disappeared, and now 49% of American citizens believe the economy is going to worsen. This is the most pessimistic outlook since 2023. More surprisingly, Trump's comprehensive tariff strategy is not well-received, with only 35% supporting it, while nearly half of Americans feel that tariffs will only lead to rising prices and further suffering for workers, resulting in a continued economic downturn. Just as Trump raises tariffs, he turns around and urges Powell to cut interest rates, claiming this will alleviate the economic impact of the tariffs, implying that the trouble caused by Trump will be cleaned up by Powell. However, developments suggest otherwise. Those familiar with Trump see that his greatest skill is finding scapegoats; there is widespread speculation that he might not actually want to replace Powell but rather keep him in place in case any economic problems arise, allowing him to blame Powell and claim it was the Fed that held him back. Some even suspect that Trump's actions are part of a deeper plan to exert control over the Fed. However, Powell's stance remains firm; his term lasts until May 2026, and he stated clearly in a press conference last November: 'Even if the president wants me to leave, I will not resign.' He repeatedly emphasized that the Fed is an independent institution, as stated in the law, and can’t be changed by a single person's statement.
Recent gains have been shared on social media, and those who have kept up are reaping substantial rewards. Even friends who are tired from climbing halfway are seeing significant returns. Today’s bubble seems a bit too high, and a pullback is normal. Continue observing the lower positions, and later tonight, continue to engage with this wave of bearish sentiment, while still controlling positions well. Quick entries and exits are necessary to avoid emotional swings. The article isn't over yet, and BTC has already spiked up to the 200-day moving average. Although a quick pullback is observed, the support below is still not strong enough, and further declines are possible. Those on the bearish side have had a tough time recently, and if you haven't exited yet, there might be an opportunity to adjust positions. The speed of the pullback is quick, and we have seen three consecutive bearish candlesticks. Everyone should not be complacent about the upcoming price movements; the market makers are still washing out positions. Continue to monitor macro-level trends, and Old Yi will make real-time adjustments. The short-term market remains in a tug-of-war, and corrections will occur. Be mindful of further depths and avoid being blinded by market smoke screens. There will be some time lag in the article, but overall, the focus will be on seeking short opportunities in the short term. Old Yi will maintain an offensive strategy, and friends with ideas should communicate with Old Yi in advance. Responses may not be timely, but if there are questions, leave a message first. The bull market is gearing up, so everyone should prepare in advance!
Yi Hai Lun Bi: The success of investment depends not only on selecting good targets but also on when to buy and sell. Protecting the principal and making proper asset allocation is essential for steady progress in the ocean of investments. Life is like a long river flowing into the sea; the factors determining victory or defeat are never just the gains and losses of a single point in time but rather the vast gathering of many streams!
The article is only a personal opinion and does not constitute any trading advice. The cryptocurrency market has risks, and investments should be made with caution!
