Yi Hai Lun Bi writes every analysis article with a responsible, focused, and sincere attitude, with prominent characteristics, not pretentious or exaggerated!
Daily market interpretation, I am digital currency analyst Yi Hai Lun Bi!
The market is in a festive mood again. BTC's price trend this week has shown a significant contrast with the US stock market. While the US stock market continues to decline due to tariff issues, BTC's price has risen against the trend during this period, reaching a short-term high of $93,888. The global M2 money supply expansion is gradually reflecting in BTC's price. Currently, it seems that BTC reaching a new high is not a difficult task, but this process will not be a straight upward trend, and everyone still needs to be alert to risks. Due to large price fluctuations, a new CME gap has formed again, starting at around $91,700. BTC has a demand to fill this gap downwards; short-term fluctuations are the norm in the market, and the US stock market also saw some gains yesterday. The previous decline in the US stock market mainly stemmed from the negative economic effects brought about by the continued fermentation of tariff issues, and the risk of an economic recession in the US continues to rise, with related negative news frequently appearing. Market concerns about the US economy are not only due to the risk of negative GDP growth but also focus on the yield of 10-year US Treasuries, which has been maintained at a high level recently, reaching close to the sensitive warning line of 4.5% set by Trump. This indicates that the attractiveness of US Treasuries is decreasing, and investor purchasing willingness is weakening, with the US dollar index also continuing to decline, recently hitting a new three-year low.
The US Treasury Secretary recently publicly stated that the Treasury may initiate US Treasury repurchase measures, indirectly reflecting that the current US Treasury market situation appears quite severe. Of course, the continuous existence of market uncertainty has led funds to flock to gold in search of safety, which has also driven gold to continuously set new highs. The BTC market has not disappointed everyone either; when the US stock market weakens, BTC's buying interest is increasing. In yesterday's article, it was mentioned that there had been very obvious positive premiums on US cryptocurrency platforms in a short time, indicating that BTC's price on their platforms is higher than that on CZ's platform. The buying demand from US investors has increased; they had previously maintained a wait-and-see attitude, but the buying behavior in the last couple of days has caused the BTC premium on US cryptocurrency platforms to rise. Currently, it is very intuitive to see that BTC was previously in a relatively suppressed phase, with three key price moving averages above: MA200, 2025 realization price, and short-term holders' realization price, which are located at $88,500, $91,565, and $92,600, respectively. These three moving averages constitute the most critical resistance zone above BTC's price. Due to BTC's continuous rise, these price levels have now been broken.
BTC's MA200 is also one of the trend indicators that Lao Yi has been paying attention to for a long time. Generally, when BTC's price is above MA200, it indicates that the market is maintaining a medium to long-term upward trend. BTC has now successfully broken through this position, and Lao Yi refers to a valid stabilization here. Multiple daily closes have been maintained above this level for a period of time. Looking at the realization price for 2025, which represents the weighted average cost of all capital entering the market since this year, when the BTC price is below this line, it indicates that the vast majority of those who entered in 2025 are still in a state of floating losses. Finally, the realization price for short-term holders is $92,600, which refers to the average cost line of investors who purchased BTC in the past 155 days. When a price resistance level attempts to be converted into a support level, it indeed requires some time. After all, once short-term holders see positive returns from losses, they will choose to sell to seek to preserve their capital, which will exert pressure on BTC and suppress the pace of further upward movement. However, if BTC can maintain above this level for a period, it will attract more funds to chase higher prices, thus driving BTC into the next round of increases. Currently, BTC is only slightly ahead and also needs to see more daily closes stabilize above for the best situation. The market structure will undergo a significant transformation, and a large amount of observing funds will begin to enter the market.
Previously mentioned short-term risk points, after all, the 4-hour RSI appears somewhat overbought, which is a signal of short-term overheating. The number of open contracts has also increased significantly. From the historical market performance rules, an increase driven by the derivatives market is usually difficult to sustain without effective support from the spot market's trading volume. In the recent several BTC increases, there have also been instances of rapid growth in open contracts but weak price increases, indicating that the previous selling power has not fully retreated. More buying funds need to continue flowing in to solidify the upward trend completely. So far this week, a large amount of funds has flowed into BTC's spot ETF, reaching as high as $913 million yesterday. BTC's rise naturally requires this trend to continue. From the perspective of spot layout, Lao Yi has received a lot of happy feedback from friends. The current situation is not the target we pursue; although there will still be some fluctuations in the subsequent process, Lao Yi firmly believes that new highs are not far away.
From the perspective of the medium to long-term trend, a new round of upward momentum has gradually formed. After all, these two weeks have broken the downward trend line. The panic selling by short-term holders has led long-term holders and BTC whales to pick up more cheap chips at the bottom. The behavior of long-term holders is always one of the core keys to understanding the supply and demand structure. Recently, the selling pressure on BTC is rapidly weakening. The inflow of long-term holders to exchanges has already dropped to 1.1% of the total supply. During several consecutive dips, especially twice below $75,000, many retail investors trapped above have chosen to realize losses, while long-term holders have chosen to accumulate more. After all, from the cost line of long-term holders, this group still has a very large profit, as the average price line is at $27,000. Looking back at several key time points, when BTC first reached $50,000 in 2021, the inflow rate of long-term holders to exchanges was as high as 5.6%, and many proactive profit-taking players chose to exit the market at this stage, including BTC whales who began to significantly reduce their holdings in the first quarter of 2021. In 2024, BTC reached new highs twice, attracting some profit-taking at this stage. The long-term chips that realized profits at these two key peaks have likely already completed distribution, meaning that the potential proactive selling pressure in the market has been largely cleared.
In terms of trends, it is believed that Lao Yi doesn’t need to emphasize much. Friends who have been following the trend recently, whether short-term or long-term, can say they have achieved great success. The inflow of capital has already shown a choice. Before the article was published, BTC had already reached $94,000, and the bulls seem to continue to exert strength. Addressing a few of the most concerning questions: the cost line for short-term holders has already broken through, and short-term selling pressure is limited. Market sentiment has been pushed to a relatively high position. Since the trend is clear, everyone should not expect bearish trends. A correction is inevitable; as long as it is controllable, there is no need to worry too much. If positions need to be readjusted, remember to communicate with Lao Yi in advance. Continue to seek low-level entry for the bulls. In the short term, risks need to be continuously observed to see if it can successfully stabilize above MA200. If further confirmation is obtained in the future market, the support below will be more stable to establish longer-term upward momentum. At the $94,000 position, certain selling pressure has been observed. Continuous observation of further trends is necessary, with time sensitivity in short-term fluctuations. Many new friends have previously encountered difficulties; at this stage, those needing to make moves should avoid similar issues through one-on-one communication with Lao Yi. There are limited spots, and responses may indeed be delayed if there are too many inquiries. Friends with ideas should remember to communicate with Lao Yi in advance! As for altcoins that everyone is concerned about, you can actually take a look at the overall trend yourself. Some altcoins have barely moved or even declined. Since the second half of last year, Lao Yi has been warning everyone to give up on altcoins. However, there have still been new friends who have found Lao Yi and quietly persisted. Choice is greater than effort; everyone has their own answers, and Lao Yi will not comment further. BTC will once again join hands with everyone to meet at the peak!
Yi Hai Lun Bi: The success of investment depends not only on choosing good targets but also on when to buy and sell. Protecting the principal and making good asset allocations is essential for steady progress in the ocean of investments. Life in this world is like a long river flowing into the sea; what determines victory or defeat is never just the gains and losses of a single pass or moment but the great gathering of rivers!
The article is merely a personal opinion and does not constitute any buy or sell advice. The cryptocurrency market is risky, and investment should be cautious!
