Will the dollar experience a 'roller coaster' this week? It all hinges on these two things!#BTC走势分析
HSBC's forex guru Paul Mackel stated that whether the dollar rises or falls this week depends entirely on two matters—changes in U.S. policy and inflation data! The June CPI (inflation data) is about to be released, and it is expected to be slightly higher than in May. If the data is too poor, the dollar may 'plummet'; if the data is decent, the dollar may hold up.
But the problem is, the Trump administration is still throwing tariff bombs everywhere, targeting Brazil, Canada, the EU, Mexico, and even drugs and copper! In the short term, these policies may make the dollar 'stronger', but what about the long term? It could drag down the global economy, and the dollar might suffer!
Is the Federal Reserve also in 'internal strife'? Powell has been heavily criticized!
Recently, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has been heavily criticized by American lawmakers for spending too much on headquarters renovations! Although this seems unrelated to monetary policy, it indicates that the Federal Reserve is under significant pressure—trying to control inflation while fearing an economic collapse, leading to internal disputes.
The market currently believes that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates in July (93.3% probability of no action), but if inflation continues to rise and the economy falters, the likelihood of a rate cut in September increases! Once the Federal Reserve starts easing, the dollar will become 'cheap', and funds will flow towards inflation-resistant assets like Bitcoin!
What impact does this have on the crypto world? Is Bitcoin about to take off?
In the short term:
If the dollar plummets due to inflation data or tariff issues, Bitcoin may 'take off' directly as funds seek safe-haven assets.
If the Federal Reserve adopts a dovish stance (hinting at future rate cuts), Bitcoin will become even more appealing as a low-interest-rate environment favors risk assets.
In the long term:
The weaker the dollar, the stronger Bitcoin! Historically, when the dollar index falls, Bitcoin often rises significantly.
The risk of a global trade war will make more people aware of Bitcoin's 'decentralized' value, and large funds may accelerate their entry.
What should ordinary players do?
Don't be scared by short-term fluctuations: If the CPI data is released and the market reacts violently, hold onto your assets and don't easily cut losses.
Buy BTC and ETH on dips: If the dollar weakens, Bitcoin is likely to start a new round of increases, and now may be a good opportunity to get in.
Keep an eye on the Federal Reserve's movements: Whether there will be a rate cut in September is crucial; if easing is confirmed, a bull market may start earlier!
This week, the market is bound to be turbulent! Whether the dollar rises or falls depends on inflation data and Trump's 'tariff stick'. But no matter how it fluctuates, Bitcoin is a potential winner—weak dollar, rising Bitcoin; economic chaos, even more rising Bitcoin! Big H suggests holding onto your assets and waiting for a surge after the storm!
(Follow Big H to seize every opportunity for wealth in the crypto world!)
