#CryptoMarket4T Yashu Gola
July 18, 2025
Stellar's XLM has the "most bullish chart" in the crypto market, reflecting the price of XRP
During their bullish streaks, XLM and XRP often move in sync, with a high correlation coefficient typically exceeding 0.70. Will history repeat itself for Stellar?
Stellar's XLM has the "most bullish chart" in the crypto market, reflecting the price of XRP
ALTCOIN IN DETAIL
Key takeaways:
XLM aims for a 35% breakout towards USD 0.63 while testing the resistance of the ascending triangle.
A strong historical correlation with XRP suggests that XLM could continue to rise.
Stellar
XLM
0.3951 €
seems poised for a 35% price increase, driven by a bullish continuation pattern and the recent rally of XRP
XRP
2.93 €
.
The ascending triangle of XLM points to USD 0.63
XLM is consolidating within an ascending triangle, a classic bullish setup characterized by higher lows and horizontal resistance.
The resistance level, near USD 0.52, has been tested several times since Tuesday, while the higher lows indicate increasing buying pressure.
Price chart of the XLM/USD pair on a four-hour basis. Source: TradingView
A breakout above USD 0.52 could confirm the pattern and trigger a rise towards USD 0.63 in August, representing a 35% gain from the current price.
The upside target is obtained by adding the maximum height of the triangle to the breakout point.
Momentum indicators also support the bullish trend. The relative strength index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart remains below overbought levels, suggesting there is room for further upward movement.
XLM continues to hold above its 20, 50, and 200-hour exponential moving averages (EMA), all of which have an upward slope. This alignment reinforces bullish prospects in the short and medium term.
The short-term bullish pattern aligns with a macroeconomic accumulation structure highlighted by veteran trader Peter Brandt.
Monthly price chart of the XLM/USD pair. Source: Peter Brandt
Brandt claims that XLM could be the "most bullish chart" in the cryptocurrency market, but only if it decisively closes above the 1 dollar level, a horizontal barrier that it has tested but never convincingly surpassed.
The correlation with XRP acts as a favorable momentum
Bullish prospects for XLM emerge after the token's gains of over 90% in the last month, reflecting the more than 60% rally of XRP in the same period.
Price performance of the XLM/USD pair against the XRP/USD pair over 30 days. Source: TradingView
In a broader timeframe, XLM lags behind the price gains of XRP. The Stellar token has risen about 425% since the lows of November, while XRP has gained over 590% in the same period.
Price performance chart of the XLM/USD pair vs. the XRP/USD pair. Source: TradingView
The recent superior performance of XLM indicates a recovery rally, which is usually observed when XRP leads bullish movements.
Historically, both assets show a strong directional correlation, driven by their common founder and similar use cases in cross-border payments.
During bullish phases, the correlation coefficient between XLM and XRP usually exceeds 0.70, reflecting a synchronized price evolution.
Daily correlation coefficient of the XLM/USD pair vs. the XRP/USD pair. Source: TradingView
A notable example occurred in July 2023 when a favorable ruling from a U.S. court in the Ripple case triggered a 60% rise in XRP.
Stellar followed with a rise of over 60%, raising the correlation coefficient to 0.95, an almost perfect alignment.
This pattern continues in 2025, reinforcing the view that XLM could extend its rally while XRP remains elevated.
