“Gazing at the endless frontier of technology; gaining insights into the future, leading a new era of investment research.”
This report is provided by the “WTR” Research Institute:
Member Twitter ID:
Gold Egg Diary @jindanriji; Elk won’t get lost @crypto_elk_; Forex Brother; Xibei @Asterismone;
The first round of WTR on-chain data subscription (OG) is officially opened!
Data provided: WTR self-researched short-term, medium-term, and long-term on-chain data, as well as data for some smaller coins.
First round pricing: 399U/year. Payment supports on-chain and off-chain transfers.
Other notes: We have prepared strategy packages for OG users. The strategy package has limited slots, and the current strategy package is only open to the first round of OG users. Subscriptions can be made by directly adding the OG user group; for details, please see Twitter or WeChat public account.
This Week Review
From July 21 to July 28, Ice Sugar Orange reached a high of approximately $120,247 and a low close to $114,723, with a fluctuation range of about 4.59%.
Observing the chip distribution map, there are significant chips trading around 113,965, which will provide some support or pressure.
Analysis:
60,000-68,000 approximately 928,000 BTC;
76,000-89,000 approximately 1,248,000 BTC;
90,000-100,000 approximately 1,380,000 BTC;
Above 100,000 approximately 1,820,000 BTC;
In the short term, there is a 90% probability of not breaking below 110,000~105,000;
Important news aspects
In terms of economic news
Stock market and gold:
On Monday, U.S. stocks opened, with the Nasdaq index up 0.23% and the S&P 500 index up 0.04%.
Gold fell 0.68% to $3,310/ounce.
Federal Reserve and interest rate policy:
The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting will be held on Thursday.
When asked whether the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates this week, Trump stated, 'It must be done.'
U.S. Office of Management and Budget Director Vought stated that Trump's only requirement for the Federal Reserve is to cut interest rates.
Swiss Bank Pictet stated that the Federal Reserve may restart the rate-cutting cycle at the September meeting, as the weakening economic outlook means that the Fed will implement more accommodative monetary policy in the second half of the year.
Analysts believe that the likelihood of the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance at this week's meeting is higher, which is macro-positive for the market.
U.S. economic data release preview:
Wednesday: July ADP employment figures, previous value -35,000, expected value 78,000.
Thursday: U.S. June core PCE price index year-on-year, expected 2.70%, previous value 2.70%. Powell will hold a press conference.
Friday: U.S. July non-farm payrolls (in ten thousand), expected 102, previous value 147; July unemployment rate, previous value 4.1%, expected value 4.2%.
International trade relations:
Analyst Chloe stated that there are recent signs of easing in global trade tensions, with agreements reached between the U.S. and Europe over tariff disputes, and negotiations in regions such as Japan-U.S. and U.S.-Canada-Mexico are also accelerating.
European Commission President von der Leyen stated that the trade agreement with the U.S. will bring stability and long-term confidence, agreeing to implement a unified 15% tariff.
Trump stated that he has reached a trade agreement with the EU, and the EU will invest $600 billion more in the U.S. than before.
Cité Gestion Strategy Director John Plassard stated that this agreement has released market predictability, and the risk of further tariff increases has now decreased.
Legislation and regulation:
The U.S. Senate Banking Committee has launched a discussion draft on the (CLARITY Act) to clarify the specific meaning of digital assets and seek to clarify how the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) should regulate digital assets.
Last week, the House of Representatives voted to pass the (CLARITY Act), which still needs to be approved by the Senate and submitted for Trump's signature.
In terms of crypto ecosystem news
Cryptocurrency prices and market capitalization:
BNB hits a historic high, with a market capitalization of 119.1 billion USD. Analysts believe this is the first mainstream coin to reach a historical high besides BTC.
Institutional and corporate position dynamics:
Coinsilium Group, a publicly listed company in the UK, has increased its holdings by 12.4230 BTC, now holding a total of 124.4239 BTC.
European publicly listed company Capital B has increased its holdings by 58 BTC, now holding a total of 2013 BTC.
Bloomberg reported: Trump Media and Technology Group (TMTG) has invested $300 million in a strategy linked to BTC-related securities.
btcNLNico data shows that last week, entities holding BTC reserve strategies collectively increased their holdings by 29,500 BTC, with 62 related announcements.
SharpLink Gaming increased its holdings by 77,206 ETH last weekend (worth approximately $296 million).
ETF and capital flow:
Last week, BTC spot ETF inflows were $72.3 million.
Last week, ETH spot ETF inflows were $1.8465 billion.
LD Capital founder Jack Yi believes that the presence of spot ETFs has permanently reduced volatility and changed market dynamics.
Stablecoins:
Tether issued $1 billion in stablecoins on Monday; since July 1, Tether has issued a total of $8 billion in stablecoins.
On-chain data:
Validator queue data shows that about 660,000 ETH are currently waiting to exit ETH PoS, with an exit waiting time of about 11 days and 11 hours; approximately 263,000 ETH are waiting to enter, with an estimated waiting time of 4 days and 14 hours.
Market sentiment and analyst views:
Matrixport states that current market sentiment is gradually turning optimistic, but historical data shows that August and September have traditionally been months of relatively weak performance for BTC.
Analysts tend to believe the market is entering a long-term bull market; if this week's employment and inflation data supports it, the bull market will become clearer.
Blockware analyst Mitchell Askew stated: BTC will no longer experience parabolic price rises or devastating bear markets; it will rise and consolidate in a boring manner over the next decade.
A Gallup survey in the U.S. shows that 60% of Americans have no plans to invest in cryptocurrencies; about 14% of American adults report owning cryptocurrencies.
Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural changes/neutral state
Medium-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long it will last, and what situations we will face.
Short-term observations: used to analyze short-term market conditions; and the possibility of certain events occurring under certain premises.
Long-term insights
Non-liquid long-term whales
Total on-chain selling pressure
ETF reserve status
Structure of long-term investors holding for more than six months
Large net transfers from exchanges
Short-term speculator cost line
(Non-liquid long-term whales)
After a brief reduction or wait-and-see period, the most forward-looking capital in the market has begun to accumulate again, and the accumulation speed has been significant recently.
This indicates that at the current price level, they believe the assets have regained value for re-entry, reflecting deep-seated confidence in the market.
(Total on-chain selling pressure)
Continuous decline is a clear signal that the selling power within the market is weakening.
Whether it is panic selling or profit-taking, both the willingness and ability are weakening.
Has cleared a major obstacle for price stability and potential upside.
(ETF reserve status)
The significant slowdown of ETF fund inflows is the most direct reason for the recent loss of upward momentum in the market and its shift to consolidation.
Reflects that flow-type capital entering through traditional channels has become cautious at this stage and has entered a tactical observation period of 'look and slow'.
(Structure of long-term investors holding for more than six months)
Over 52% of the supply is firmly held by investors for more than six months, and this ratio remains highly stable.
This has formed the ballast of the market, proving that most of the supply is held by steadfast holders, making the market's fundamental base very solid.
(Large net transfers from exchanges)
The net withdrawal speed of whales from exchanges has slowed, corroborating signals of reduced ETF inflows.
Indicates that the aggressiveness of large active buying is declining.
They have not turned bearish, but have shifted from aggressive offense to patient waiting, with the market's active purchasing power entering a period of consolidation.
(Short-term speculator cost line)
This cost line is steadily rising to approximately $105,281, which is a constructive signal.
This means that during the consolidation period, there are still new buyers entering at higher price levels, thereby raising the overall support platform of the market.
As long as the price remains above this line, the short-term structure of the market is healthy.
Overall comprehensive analysis
In summary, the current market is not in a state of directional ambiguity; its core characteristic can be precisely defined as - structural turnover and ecological rotation on a solid foundation.
The market's foundation is solid.
Externally, the Fed's expectations for rate cuts provide a loose macro environment; internally, over half of the supply is locked by long-term holders, while selling pressure has shown signs of fatigue.
This determines that even if the market faces a correction, its depth is relatively limited, with strong structural support.
Secondly, the market is undergoing a precise switch rather than shutting down.
The current price stagnation stems from the 'handoff' of two types of capital:
Passive capital, significantly impacting market flow, represented by ETFs, has paused due to short-term uncertainties.
On the other hand, active capital represented by long-term whales, which have a more strategic vision, is quietly accumulating during this valuable window period.
At the same time, it can be observed that capital has not left the market but has undergone an ecological rotation within the crypto ecosystem.
Against the backdrop of BTC price consolidation, funds are flowing into Ethereum and Binance Coin, which have independent narratives and have reached historical highs.
This is not a capital escape from a bear market but a mature performance of maximizing capital efficiency in a bull market.
Therefore, all seemingly contradictory signals - the pause of ETFs and the buying of whales, the consolidation of Bitcoin and the strength of other mainstream coins - are reasonably explained within this framework of 'structural turnover and rotation'.
Outlook
Short-term:
The short-term direction of the market will be completely dominated by the upcoming key economic data from the U.S. (core PCE, non-farm payrolls).
This is a phase of 'waiting for the trigger to be pulled'.
If the data is positive (confirming a soft economic landing):
Will provide evidence for the Fed's dovish stance, likely reactivating ETF fund inflows, and the market is expected to break through the consolidation range, starting a new round of increases.
If the data is bearish (triggering recession concerns):
This will test the quality of its structural support, and the price will seek support downwards, with the first important threshold being the short-term holder cost line at around $105,000.
Medium to long-term outlook (1-3 months):
In the medium to long term, as long as there are no extreme macro shocks, the overall trajectory of the market is likely to be a volatile upward movement.
The upward momentum comes from expectations of improving macro liquidity and the continued layout of strategic capital under institutional trends.
The volatility comes from several aspects:
One is the potential seasonal weakness in August and September;
The second is the sector performance differentiation caused by ecological rotation;
The third is the inevitable process of the market digesting previous gains and building a higher platform.
At this stage, 'buying on dips' may re-emerge as the mainstream strategy in the market.
Medium-term exploration
Liquidity supply
Net position of total supply of stablecoins
Short-term profit percentage composite model
BTC exchange trend net position
ETH exchange trend net position
Global purchasing power
(Below image shows liquidity supply)
Liquidity supply volume is stagnating and rising, and the pace of the market is also slowing and converging. Liquidity may also become cautious at this stage.
(Below image shows net position of total supply of stablecoins)
Stablecoins continue to supply constantly, while off-market forces have been injecting momentum into crypto assets.
(Below image shows short-term profit percentage composite model)
Recently, there have been frequent occurrences of profit squeezing among short-term participants, leading to some instability in the market.
If this portion of liquidity suppliers continues to take profits, then more fresh capital will be needed to provide momentum for the market.
Currently, the liquidity supply is also decreasing, and the market may need some right-side turning point signals before entering the next phase.
(Below image shows BTC exchange trend net position)
BTC has resumed its accumulation state and rhythm.
The current market features more volatility, and BTC may experience some divergence during the high-level horizontal phase. However, the supply force from the off-market remains strong, potentially providing solid support at high levels.
At the same time, the outflow of BTC from exchanges is relatively high, with only 2.9 million chips (total BTC roughly 17.8 million) available for liquidity.
As the chips on the盘面 decrease, pressure may contract, leading to more gradual fluctuations, or volatility.
Only increments or decrements can lead to structural bull-bear changes in the market.
(Below image shows ETH exchange trend net position)
ETH participants' recent purchasing willingness has declined, with fewer outflows from exchanges, suggesting some hesitation and wavering.
(Below image shows global purchasing power)
Global purchasing power has slightly stagnated in its rise.
It is likely that American participants are also slowing down in terms of momentum supply on the盘面.
Short-term observations
Derivative risk coefficient
Options intention transaction ratio
Derivative trading volume
Options implied volatility
Profit and loss transfer volume
New addresses and active addresses
Ice Sugar Orange exchange net position
Auntie exchange net position
High-weight selling pressure
Global purchasing power status
Stablecoin exchange net position
Derivative rating: risk coefficient is in the neutral zone, and derivative risk is moderate.
(Below image shows derivative risk coefficient)
Last week's market performance was basically in line with expectations, and BTC did not conduct a short squeeze. The current risk coefficient is still in the neutral zone at the upper edge of the red area, and the probability of further short squeezes in the market this week is relatively low, making it easier to adopt a volatile mode. However, the next market movement will not be too far away.
(Below image shows options intention transaction ratio)
The ratio of bearish options is currently at a medium-high level, while trading volume is at a median level.
(Below image shows derivative trading volume)
Derivative trading volume is at a medium-low level.
(Below image shows options implied volatility)
Options implied volatility is not expected to fluctuate significantly in the short term.
Sentiment status rating: optimistic
(Below image shows profit and loss transfer volume)
Compared to last week, market positive sentiment (blue line) is still slowly declining, but market panic sentiment (orange line) has not increased. The overall market sentiment state is healthy.
(Below image shows new addresses and active addresses)
New active addresses are at a median level.
Spot and selling pressure structure ratings: both BTC and ETH have significant outflows.
(Below image shows net position of Ice Sugar Orange exchange)
BTC is overall in a state of outflow accumulation, with significant outflows currently.
(Below image shows net positions on E exchange)
ETH has significant outflows.
(Below image shows high-weight selling pressure)
Currently, there is no high-weight selling pressure participating.
Purchasing power rating: global purchasing power, stablecoin purchasing power remains the same as last week.
(Below image shows global purchasing power status)
Global purchasing power remains the same as last week.
(Below image shows USDT exchange net position)
Stablecoin purchasing power remains the same as last week.
This week’s summary:
Summary of news:
Due to the dovish expectations of the Federal Reserve and the easing of international trade relations, the global risk asset market is in a relatively safe and loose macro environment. This constitutes a strong 'tailwind', encouraging capital to take risks.
On the basis of macro tailwinds, the crypto market is no longer the 'Wild West' of the past. Institutional forces represented by spot ETFs are reshaping its market structure, creating a stable demand base and significantly reducing extreme price volatility. This lays the foundation for a profound internal structural bull market.
When the 'macro tailwind' (external thrust) meets the 'internal structural change' (internal support), the resulting resonance effect is tremendous.
This explains why market sentiment is gradually optimistic and tends to believe that the market has entered a 'long-term bull market'. This bull market may not be as feverish as before, but it will be more stable and long-lasting.
This grand bull market narrative will face its first key test this week - U.S. employment and inflation data.
If the data is ideal (strong employment, controlled inflation): it will confirm expectations of a soft economic landing, providing data support for the Fed's dovish stance, essentially pouring gasoline on the bull market, which may lead to a significant rise in the market.
If the data is poor (employment far below expectations or inflation rises): it will shake market confidence, triggering concerns about economic recession or policy tightening, potentially leading to a sharp short-term correction. However, due to the existence of institutional cushions, this correction may lean more towards a 'healthy adjustment' rather than the start of a bear market.
Even if everything goes smoothly, Gallup's survey reminds us that the market's ultimate potential is still limited by the acceptance of the general public. Institutionalization can drive up asset prices, but to achieve exponential, universal growth, we still need to bridge the gap from institutional bulls to global participation bulls.
Short-term outlook
In the cautious horizontal or slight upward trend before the data release from Wednesday to Friday, the price volatility of BTC and ETH may decrease. The real direction of the market will be determined after the data is released.
Observation points:
Focus on capital flow after data releases.
If there is a price drop but ETF funds are still net inflowing, this will be a clear signal of strong structural support in the market.
Conversely, if the price rises while ETF inflows slow down, caution should be exercised regarding the risk of a short-term pullback.
Medium-term outlook
Volatile upward movement, structural differentiation.
Assuming there are no significant surprises in economic data this week, the main trend of the market in the medium and short term will be a volatile upward movement.
However, caution is needed regarding the historical patterns of seasonal weakness in August and September mentioned by Matrixport, which may lead to a period of market consolidation or correction.
Opportunities:
Market opportunities may no longer be characterized by a 'rising tide lifts all boats' scenario.
Capital will become smarter, rotating between different sectors.
Mainstream public chains such as the ETH ecosystem and BNB, which have strong fundamentals and cash flows, as well as other niche tracks that may attract institutional attention, may show relative strength beyond BTC.
Investment logic will shift from betting on macro easing to seeking quality assets.
On-chain long-term insights:
Overall, the market fundamentals are healthy, and the structure is solid;
The current calm is not a sign of weakness but a profound internal restructuring;
Investors with stronger conviction are taking over chips, with capital seeking opportunities in a broader ecosystem;
This is a more mature and resilient characteristic of a bull market.
Market tone:
Beneath the calm lies a change in market structure and the accumulation of energy.
On-chain medium-term exploration
Liquidity supply volume stagnates and rises, the pace of the market slows and converges, cautious sentiment in the market increases, and the short term may tend towards conservatism.
Stablecoins continue to supply constantly, with off-market forces actively injecting momentum, maintaining vitality for crypto assets.
Short-term participants frequently squeeze profits, leading to instability in the market.
BTC has resumed its accumulation rhythm, with high-level horizontal fluctuations being significant; strong off-market supply provides solid support, leading to reduced liquidity or volatility within the market.
ETH's purchasing willingness has decreased, with fewer outflows from exchanges, showing signs of hesitation and wavering among participants.
Global purchasing power has slightly stagnated in its rise, with American participants' momentum supply slowing and demand showing signs of fatigue.
Market tone:
Cautious
Market actions are cautious, with stablecoins providing momentum, but the short-term structure is unstable.
On-chain short-term observations:
Risk coefficient is in the neutral zone, and derivative risk is moderate.
New active addresses are at a median level.
Market sentiment status rating: optimistic.
Overall, the net positions in exchanges show substantial outflows for both BTC and ETH.
Global purchasing power, stablecoin purchasing power remains the same as last week.
In the short term, there is a 90% probability of not breaking below 110,000~105,000;
Market tone:
Short-term market situation is brewing.
Current overall market sentiment is optimistic, with purchasing power still supporting the chips from profit-taking at the current price level, and the cost line for short-term holders continues to rise. This week, a short-term consolidation is still possible, but the next turning point may not be far off.
Risk warning:
The above are all discussions and explorations of the market, which do not have directional opinions on investment; please view cautiously and guard against black swan risks in the market.
This report is provided by the “WTR” Research Institute.
Welcome to follow us!
$BTC
