Recently, there has been a lot of market talk about "the bull tail has arrived, large holders are selling, and ETH leads altcoins into the final frenzy," but from the perspectives of sentiment, indicators, and cycle specificity, this judgment still needs to be debated.
Sentiment: There has been no typical "irrational FOMO" of a bull tail.
The core characteristic of the bull tail phase is that market sentiment completely detaches from fundamentals, as evidenced by retail investors' overwhelming enthusiasm to chase increases (such as the fear and greed index consistently breaking 90), a surge in new user entries (a doubling of new exchange account openings), and a proliferation of "100x coins" narratives lacking logical support. However, although the current market is volatile, overall sentiment remains in a "rational wait-and-see" range - there is neither the heat of widespread speculation nor a large influx of irrational leveraged funds, which is markedly different from the 2021 bull tail's frenzy where even "air coins doubled".
Indicators: Long-term core indicators have not triggered the "bull tail signal".
The key long-term indicators for judging the bull tail (such as BTC market cap share, token holding concentration, and on-chain active address growth rate) have not currently reached the threshold.
The market capitalization share of BTC remains around 59%, and there has not been an extreme divergence in the "funds migrating from BTC to junk altcoins" during the bull tail phase.
Leading institutions (such as Grayscale and MicroStrategy) are still in a net accumulation state, with no large-scale selling occurring.
The proportion of long-term holding addresses on-chain (holding for over 1 year) continues to rise, indicating that funds are still being settled rather than engaged in short-term speculation.
Cycle specificity: The previous round of massive liquidity caused a lag in the cycle, and it cannot be judged solely by time.
The last round (2020-2021) of massive liquidity over-issuance by global central banks has caused a "lag effect" in the transmission of cycles in the crypto market - the traditional cycle's norm of "bull-bear switching every 3-4 years" has been broken, significantly extending the time for capital digestion and asset repricing. If one continues to judge the bull tail based on "fixed time points", it is easy to overlook the current market's core background that "liquidity has not fully receded".
II. Funding situation: The traditional old money dominated "rational allocation" determines that the altcoin season needs to wait, and the leverage ratio has become a key observation indicator.
The current market fund structure is different from previous cycles; the entry logic of traditional institutional funds (old money) directly affects the short-term market rhythm and the timing of altcoin launches.
The allocation logic of traditional old money: first anchor core assets, then observe segmented opportunities.
Unlike the retail style of "chasing hotspots and rushing into altcoins", traditional old money (such as family funds and hedge funds) enters Crypto with "asset allocation and risk hedging" as the core goal, making operations more rational.
The allocation logic of traditional old money: first anchor core assets, then observe segmented opportunities.
Unlike the retail style of "chasing hotspots and rushing into altcoins", traditional old money (such as family funds and hedge funds) enters Crypto with "asset allocation and risk hedging" as the core goal, making operations more rational.
The first step is to prioritize allocating to assets like BTC and ETH, which are the "ballast stones" of the crypto market, and to test the market rules with small positions.
The second step will gradually research and lay out the segments with fundamental support (such as Layer2, RWA) according to the macro environment (such as interest rate cuts, regulatory clarity), rather than directly pouring into purely speculative altcoins.
This logic determines that "the altcoin season will not start synchronously with the expectation of interest rate cuts"; we need to wait for core assets to stabilize and institutions to complete initial allocations before funds may rotate into altcoins.
Capital inflow after interest rate cuts: The window period provides space for institutional allocation, and demand can be sustained.
From a macro perspective, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have an "indirect positive correlation" with the Crypto market.
After interest rate cuts, the U.S. needs to attract more funds to purchase U.S. Treasuries, while the Crypto market expands and the circulation of stablecoins (such as USDT and USDC) increases, essentially providing a "new reservoir" for global liquidity - stablecoin holders can indirectly participate in U.S. Treasury investments through dollar exchanges, forming a positive cycle of "Crypto expansion → increased demand for U.S. Treasuries".
Therefore, from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts to the actual inflow of funds into the Crypto market, there exists a "configuration window period" of 1-2 months, during which institutions will gradually complete their positioning, and the demand for capital inflow will be sustainable, rather than short-term impulsive speculation.
Key observation indicator: Leverage ratio - avoid being misled by "false starts".
Currently, it is essential to focus on the leverage ratio in the futures market (such as BTC perpetual contract financing rates): if the leverage ratio does not show a significant increase (such as financing rates remaining positive and breaking 0.1%), it indicates that market funds are still primarily based on "spot allocation", and altcoins lack the leverage funding support for short-term speculation; blindly chasing altcoins at this time may lead to being trapped.
III. Market forecast: BTC will undergo wide fluctuations one month before and after interest rate cuts, with core bottom-fishing ranges at $3,000+ for ETH and $92,000 for BTC.
Combining the logic of "sentiment and funding", the short-term market (one month before and after interest rate cuts) is likely to focus on "wide adjustments, core assets bottoming"; specific targets and opportunities are as follows:
BTC: Look for bottom-fishing opportunities around $92,000, with a rise expected post-adjustment.
Currently, BTC is influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts; if it corrects to around $92,000, the corresponding valuation (such as BTC market cap / gold market cap ratio, price-to-earnings ratio) will return to a "reasonably low" level, and is close to the previous institutional accumulation cost line, making it a better bottom-fishing point with a higher risk-reward ratio.
After the adjustment is complete, with institutional allocated funds gradually entering and liquidity landing after interest rate cuts, BTC is expected to break through previous highs and start the next round of increase.
ETH: Following BTC's adjustments, just over $3,000 is a good bottom-fishing point.
ETH, as the "second core asset" for institutional allocation, will have short-term movements highly correlated with BTC.
If BTC corrects to $92,000, ETH will likely fall to the $3,000-$3,200 range; this position corresponds to the ETH staking yield (currently about 3.5%) and the cost-performance advantage over traditional fixed-income assets (such as U.S. Treasury yields), and is close to the average institutional entry cost since 2025, providing strong support.
Regarding the view that "ETH will short-term surge to $10,000", the current market consensus is insufficient - we need to wait for the ETH ecosystem's fundamentals (such as Layer2 total TVL breaking $50 billion, ETF approval) to be further realized before triggering a significant valuation increase; in the short term, it is more appropriate to focus on "buying on dips".
In the short term, look for "bottom-fishing opportunities in adjustments", and in the long term, expect a "slow bull driven by institutional allocation".
The current market is neither in a "bull tail frenzy" nor in the "early bear decline", but is in a "rational bottoming period after the entry of traditional old money":
In the short term (within one month): seize the bottom-fishing opportunities around BTC $92,000 and ETH $3,000, and avoid chasing altcoins.
Medium to long-term (3-6 months): wait for institutions to complete core asset allocation and leverage ratios to rise moderately, then focus on altcoin opportunities with fundamental support.
Core principle: Do not be disturbed by short-term sentiment; treat Crypto with "asset allocation thinking", prioritizing capital safety before pursuing profit growth.
