Recently, the market has shown abnormal trends: Bitcoin dropped from a high of $124,000 to $107,350, Ethereum retreated from $4,956 to $4,257, and there were even multiple occurrences of 'second altcoin rising, major coin falling'.
Many people are panicking: Is the bull market over? What stage is the current market actually in? Let's break it down.
First, let's look at the phase division of this bull market. If we consider April 9, 2025 - July 14, 2025 as the 'early bull', then this phase completely conforms to the typical characteristics of an early bull—where the major coin leads the rise alone, the second altcoin follows but does not break previous highs, and other altcoins are still stagnant.
From July 14 to August 30, the market clearly switched to the 'mid bull' phase. The most core sign of the mid bull is 'second altcoin leading': After the second altcoin broke $3,000 on July 14, it surged, and when it stood at $4,000 on August 9, the major coin was still hovering around $118,000.
On August 24, the second altcoin hit a historical high of $4,956, while the major coin dropped to $116,000; by August 31, the second altcoin maintained at $4,450, and the major coin further dropped to $108,500. During this period, not only did the second altcoin's increase far exceed that of the major coin, but there were also frequent occurrences of 'second altcoin rising, major coin falling', and altcoins still did not see a breakout—this completely aligns with the characteristics of historical bull markets.
Let's talk about how long the bull market will last. Referring to the past: in 2017, the bull market lasted for 6 months; in 2020, the policy-driven bull market lasted for 5 months; in 2021, the bull market also lasted for 3 months.
A conservative estimate suggests that the mid bull phase starting from mid-July is likely to last until mid-September to mid-October, during which the second altcoin is likely to continue leading, while the major coin's growth will lag behind.
Once the mid bull phase ends, the next phase will be the 'late bull' phase from October to December—this is when altcoins will have their main stage, not only will the altcoin season fully explode, but various meme coins will also be everywhere, and there may even be 'altcoin ETFs' and institution-led 'altcoin micro-strategy' plays.
At the same time, the altcoin and the second altcoin will once again break new highs, and the market will completely enter a frantic state. But after the frenzy, it often leads to a sudden stop in the market, ending the bull market and entering the next cycle.
Ultimately, the three phases of a bull market—'early bull - mid bull - late bull'—essentially represent the shift in risk appetite from low to medium to high, driven by human fears and greed. The bull markets of 2017 and 2021 validated this rule, and 2025 will be no exception—even if institutions enter the market introducing new variables, the core logic of the bull-bear transition remains unchanged, as human nature does not change.
So there’s no need to panic; the current pattern of 'second altcoin leading, major coin lagging, altcoins unmoved' precisely indicates that we are in the mid-phase of the 2025 crypto bull market. Once this mid bull phase lasts until the end of September or October, we will then welcome the explosive late bull market for altcoins.
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